The Smarty Jones

[f2tornado]

One of those prep races I look forward to more than others as it kicks off the Oaklawn prep series. Baffert shipping in Toews on Ice and is the obvious class of this field. I suspect the 9/5 ML is generous. For a price, I'd also consider Black Ops with Calvin Borel up. This gelding double dips in the Buckpasser. The Asmussen trained Luna De Loco stretching out for the first time. This colt has an interesting pedigree with inbreeding from Buckpasser and Mr. Prospector. The has recently run in a couple of stakes and had a nice work on the track on 7th.

Maybe a / trifecta with win bets on the and .

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Toews On Ice is going to be awfully awfully tough to beat in here.

Synchrony is a bit interesting as he beat Uncle Walter who ran a reasonable 3rd in the Lecomte. Don't think he can beat the though.

Knight's Key is the one I'll look at for a price. Horrible break in his maiden and was able to overcome while spotting the field 7 lengths and going fairly wide to get it done. Giant's Causeway and Lemon Drop Kid breeding and is working sharply coming in.

Probably have to toss the a Cutacorner in there somewhere as Van Berg has been getting max efforts out of his horses at this Oaklawn meet thus far.

[Longshot]

#12 Knight's Key and #2X Whitmore will scratch from the Smarty jones.
Whitmore ran in and won the 9th race Saturday at Oaklawn.
Knights Key connections are scratching because of the outside post draw and will look for a race on January 29th.

[letswastemoney]

Toews On Ice is a sprinter that will win some races like this, but he's no lock.

Luna de Loco has one of the top figures, and it was only his debut. If he can route, which is a question, he will be tough.

[PhantomOnTour]

I like the Synchrony

[Parson]

The will be tough to beat here but will also get plenty of pressure on the front. You always must watch the "other" Baffert horse win he ships them from S. Cal.
The has shown in all 3 of his starts that he can rate and close in the stretch but can he do it after being off since 11/14 and stretching out for the first time. The is a bit of a question mark. His time in the 11/1 effort was a bit slow over a fast track, but did get up for the win @ Remington on 12/13. I do not see this one winning but underneath is a good possiblity.
The gets Bo-rail up. He is always tough at OPX, and this Hard Spun colt did draw clear over a muddy CDX surface to break his maiden on 11/28.
I really see this as the 's race to loose. I think if I had to wager a nickel or two, which I won't, I would take a shot with win bets on the & .

[ebcorde]

People were complaining he was cold after the breeders cup.

I told them "no worries, he took a break. Imagine the pressure, he had to navigate that Horse thru all that"

he hit a nice one last Saturday (the ole enter 2 horses and the longest shot wins trick), and he hit that $40 dollar turf horse friday.

looking at the race, I gotta feeling Baffert wins the smarty jones

[PhantomOnTour]

Baffert owns the preps at OP:

American Pharoah
Bodemeister
Secret Circle
Lookin At Lucky

...and a few others I'm surely forgetting.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Baffert owns the preps at OP:
...and a few others I'm surely forgetting.

The Factor
Hoppertunity
Super Ninety Nine
Castaway
Conveyance

If it's not Baffert then it's Pletcher and occasionally Asmussen. I'm almost certain you'd have a positive ROI putting $2 on each of them at every Oaklawn prep. Danza in 2014 alone would have covered many loses. That said, Baffert has yet to win the Smarty Jones although I don't know if he's made an attempt.

I looked at the race again and see there are few horses that have even hit the board at the simple mile (or greater) distance. It's gonna be tough to beat Baffert here as it will take a horse taking a large leap or one of the lightly raced well bred horses enjoying a couple extra panels. I would not be shocked to see 3 or 7 take that leap and made a couple small bets to cover that possibility otherwise it's just a matter of filling out my trifecta with the 4 on top. I stuck the 3,6,7,8,9 in various places underneath.

[Secondbest]

Synchrony --broke maiden in keeneland fall meet class edge plus off the pace style. #8 to win

[Michael]

Going with the LUNA DE LOCO

Toews is prob head and shoulders... discreet's kid to close it out ?

[f2tornado]

The result:

The rare Baffert tank job at OP. The Discreetness has Sex Appeal (Buckpasser) and Torpenhow in tail female. Not surprised it won but Brisnet speed figures where a good 5-10 points below Towes. Gordy Florida won a pair of sprints at RP with decent times but I was skeptical the horse could compete with these at a mile. Perhaps Discreetness is improving at the right time otherwise I don't see anyone else from this one sniffing the Derby gate much less the roses.

[ebcorde]

Baffert he's off the board.

and what the hell happened at GP. it was so crazy I stopped betting after race 6. 50 cent pick 5 paid $21k. I wished i only bet Sam Huston and Tup.

[Mandrake]

The six ran against Mo Tom who looked good at the Fairgrounds winning. Generous price.

[BIG49010]

Did you happen to notice the 9th race, looked like the 1-2 finishers, ran a faster final 1/4 than the Smarty Jones. A couple good ones in there, they were 10 in front of the rest.