BC Turf Sprint Figure

[bobphilo]

A question for cj. According to Thorograph, 6YO Stormy Liberal improved his figure from his previous and usual 2 to an astounding lifetime top of negative 5. This has sparked some debate on the T-Graph board, with some suggesting that a 6YO horse is equivalent to a 55 year old man. I find this absurd since a horse is not even fully mature until about 5. A NIH study has shown that the average horses' Beyers peak at 4.45 and only decline gradually from there. Jerry Brown was very critical of my posts.

I believe his TFUS was 128 and I was was wondering what his previous TFUS figures were and what you thought about this improvement.

Some have suggested that his trainer, Peter Miller, got passed the tight BC security with some PED. I also think the figure could be wrong. What say you?

[cj]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

A question for cj. According to Thorograph, 6YO Stormy Liberal improved his figure from his previous and usual 2 to an astounding lifetime top of negative 5. This has sparked some debate on the T-Graph board, with some suggesting that a 6YO horse is equivalent to a 55 year old man. I find this absurd since a horse is not even fully mature until about 5. A NIH study has shown that the average horses' Beyers peak at 4.45 and only decline gradually from there. Jerry Brown was very critical of my posts.

I believe his TFUS was 128 and I was was wondering what his previous TFUS figures were and what you thought about this improvement.

Some have suggested that his trainer, Peter Miller, got passed the tight BC security with some PED. I also think the figure could be wrong. What say you?

Not sure I want to get into details of what I think of somebody else's figure, particularly when we work for the same company. These are his figures, most recent back to last year's BC win:


128
123
121
123
119
120 (Timeform, Dubai)
121
83 (Timeform, Hong Kong)
125

Timeform rated this year's win a 124, FYI.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

Not sure I want to get into details of what I think of somebody else's figure, particularly when we work for the same company. These are his figures, most recent back to last year's BC win:


128
123
121
123
119
120 (Timeform, Dubai)
121
83 (Timeform, Hong Kong)
125

Timeform rated this year's win a 124, FYI.

Thanks for the figures. Sorry if it sounded like I wanted to know what you thought about the T-Graph figure. I was trying to find out what you thought about your own figure and if there was a dramatic improvement on TFUS and what you made of it. It seems that Stormy Liberal improved on your figures as well though not as dramatically. He was 4 wide and that would make this race even better than the 128. Do you think that a 6YO horse can improve to that extent without having run that fast before throughout a very long career? My take is that it is unlikely but possible.

I didn't realize that T-Graph and TFUS were the same company. I thought they were competitors. Was there some kind of a merger or did one buy the other?

[cj]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Thanks for the figures. Sorry if it sounded like I wanted to know what you thought about the T-Graph figure. I was trying to find out what you thought about your own figure and if there was a dramatic improvement on TFUS and what you made of it. It seems that Stormy Liberal improved on your figures as well though not as dramatically. He was 4 wide and that would make this race even better than the 128. Do you think that a 6YO horse can improve to that extent without having run that fast before throughout a very long career? My take is that it is unlikely but possible.

I didn't realize that T-Graph and TFUS were the same company. I thought they were competitors. Was there some kind of a merger or did one buy the other?

We aren't the same, sorry about that. I saw the name Beyer and incorrectly thought you mentioned his figure for the race too, which was a 119.

I personally feel it is a lot more likely the top two ran very well while the others did not given the ground they ran on. I think TG and Beyer and basing the figure too much on the also rans rather than the two best horses that day.

[cj]

As for the 6yo question, I see it all the time these days, horses running new tops at advanced ages. It usually involves a move to new barn, almost always barns known for move ups.

[classhandicapper]

I haven't studied it, but based on observation I think it's more likely for a turf horse to run a new top at 6 than a dirt horse. It's my experince turfers tend to mature later (you can see it in 2yo and 3yo stakes turf figures) and stay sound longer.

We discussed that BC Turf Sprint figure elsewhere.

You can understand why someone would think the figure was spectacularly fast because the margin between the top two and the others was huge.

You can also argue against it by saying the track was off and margins tend to get exagerrated on off tracks because some horses won't like the surface and because kickback becomes more of an issue. You could further argue that when the turf is off, the typical relationship between sprints and routes might get distorted. There weren't a bunch of turf sprints to compare that one to.

Personally, I think the top two ran a big race, but if you are asking me if those sprinters ran better doing what they do than Enable did in her race I can only come up with one response.



Enable is one of the greatest fillies/mares of all time and she fired a huge shot burying a full field of Grade 1 older male turfers.

Stormy Liberal and World of Trouble ran a very good Grade 1 turf sprint and buried mostly Grade 3 horses.

IMO, if it was possibe in some altered universe to match them up that day on even terms, Enable would laugh at them.

TG has a great product and makes excellent figures in general, but on that forum every big top is drug related, every horse that didn't duplicate their big race bounced, and every figure that doesn't fit in with the day means the track changed speeds. Pace, race flow, how the track was playing, position, and field quality etc... are all close to irrelevant to them.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I haven't studied it, but based on observation I think it's more likely for a turf horse to run a new top at 6 than a dirt horse. It's my experince turfers tend to mature later (you can see it in 2yo and 3yo stakes turf figures) and stay sound longer.

We discussed that BC Turf Sprint figure elsewhere.

You can understand why someone would think the figure was spectacularly fast because the margin between the top two and the others was huge.

You can also argue against it by saying the track was off and margins tend to get exagerrated on off tracks because some horses won't like the surface and because kickback becomes more of an issue. You could further argue that when the turf is off, the typical relationship between sprints and routes might get distorted. There weren't a bunch of turf sprints to compare that one to.

Personally, I think the top two ran a big race, but if you are asking me if those sprinters ran better doing what they do than Enable did in her race I can only come up with one response.



Enable is one of the greatest fillies/mares of all time and she fired a huge shot burying a full field of Grade 1 older male turfers.

Stormy Liberal and World of Trouble ran a very good Grade 1 turf sprint and buried mostly Grade 3 horses.

IMO, if it was possibe in some altered universe to match them up that day on even terms, Enable would laugh at them.

TG has a great product and makes excellent figures in general, but on that forum every big top is drug related, every horse that didn't duplicate their big race bounced, and every figure that doesn't fit in with the day means the track changed speeds. Pace, race flow, how the track was playing, position, and field quality etc... are all close to irrelevant to them.

I agree that turf horse tend to hold their form and last longer than dirt horses. I have heard several trainer say so..It makes sense since grass is the horse natural surface they evolved to run on. In addition it also provides better cushioning and energy return than dirt. Plus the pace in grass races tends to be slower and less stressful than the often suicidal paces we see on the dirt.

I also think that Enable ran a better race than Stormy Liberal. All you have to do is compare their TFUS figures. While they both went wide on the turns, she was wide on both terms so her her upgraded figure is even better than her already superior figure alone suggests. Any good speed handicapper would see that.

Yes, horses can bounce in reaction to a big effort but one must also consider other major factors like pace, pace patterns and ground loss.

I tend to agree with the often heard opinion that that forum is like a cult as witnessed by when my suggestion that the figure MIGHT be wrong, even though my main point was that a 6YO horse COULD run the figure assigned, it was interpreted as a criticism of his figure, at which point the loyal minions were siced upon me.

Remember, when I moderated the Horses and Racing Forum, of which you were also a member, and the Japanese horse, Deep Impact, did not run as well as expected in the Arc de Triumph, a TG fan said it was bouncing from a big performance in a race it ran months ago. When I suggested that bounce theory did not apply there, he was so enraged that I called it a theory that he quit in protest because I did not call bounce theory an indisputable truth. Cult thinking.

Here's the link to the excellent study from the Institute for Equine Studies that shows that the average horse runs its best Beyers at 4.45 years and only declines slowly in the next couple of years. Plus, this is only the average. About half of horses can do it even longer and the standard deviation and standard error makes the range even wider. This is the kind of scientific study handicappers should read.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4013968/

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

As for the 6yo question, I see it all the time these days, horses running new tops at advanced ages. It usually involves a move to new barn, almost always barns known for move ups.

An interesting study from Japan that also shows that the average speed of racehorses increases until they reach 4 and remains constant for several years beyond that. Especially in turf races at 6F (1200 meters) for horses and geldings. The same distance and sex of the BC Turf Sprint.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26170760

Also of interest that the increase in speed was not affected by increased weight carried. Makes one wonder what effect weight really has. I'm glad that the TFUS ratings gives the option of adjusting for weight or not. To tell the truth I'm still not sure of the effect of weight. T-Breds weigh about ten times what humans weigh and have been bred to carry weight for milenia so an additional 5 lbs would be like half a pound to us.

I wonder if there is a study to show the difference between the win % of ratings that are or are not adjusted for weight. I'm not asking for you to do it now, cj, since you have enough on your plate with whats going on in your life and the study on pace patterns. Maybe someday.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

We aren't the same, sorry about that. I saw the name Beyer and incorrectly thought you mentioned his figure for the race too, which was a 119.

I personally feel it is a lot more likely the top two ran very well while the others did not given the ground they ran on. I think TG and Beyer and basing the figure too much on the also rans rather than the two best horses that day.

Though I agree that the studies I posted show that a 6YO horse can run a new top, I also am skeptical of the huge figure TG and Beyer gave the race for the same reasons given by cj.

[cj]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

An interesting study from Japan that also shows that the average speed of racehorses increases until they reach 4 and remains constant for several years beyond that. Especially in turf races at 6F (1200 meters) for horses and geldings. The same distance and sex of the BC Turf Sprint.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26170760

Also of interest that the increase in speed was not affected by increased weight carried. Makes one wonder what effect weight really has. I'm glad that the TFUS ratings gives the option of adjusting for weight or not. To tell the truth I'm still not sure of the effect of weight. T-Breds weigh about ten times what humans weigh and have been bred to carry weight for milenia so an additional 5 lbs would be like half a pound to us.

I wonder if there is a study to show the difference between the win % of ratings that are or are not adjusted for weight. I'm not asking for you to do it now, cj, since you have enough on your plate with whats going on in your life and the study on pace patterns. Maybe someday.

I'll get to this more later, but our study definitely showed weight adjusted numbers performed better at the windows. It wasn't huge but it was enough that I always leave the setting on. Can't hurt to revisit though.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by cj

I'll get to this more later, but our study definitely showed weight adjusted numbers performed better at the windows. It wasn't huge but it was enough that I always leave the setting on. Can't hurt to revisit though.

Was the improvement of weight adjusted horses in R.O.I. , Win % or both. What formula do you use for weight change, if it isn't proprietary info. Does it change with distance.

As long a I'm being nosy, what is the pace adjustment and does it vary with distance/surface. I know you said you've been using the 2nd call but I think you said you were finding the first call more important lately, like Equibase uses. Then, of course, there are does pesky pace patterns.

[cj]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

Was the improvement of weight adjusted horses in R.O.I. , Win % or both. What formula do you use for weight change, if it isn't proprietary info. Does it change with distance.

As long a I'm being nosy, what is the pace adjustment and does it vary with distance/surface. I know you said you've been using the 2nd call but I think you said you were finding the first call more important lately, like Equibase uses. Then, of course, there are does pesky pace patterns.

I believe ROI mostly, very slight bump in w%.

The pace adjustment is pretty complicated and I'm not going to give it away. It varies by distances, surface, and position of the horses at the first call (both ordinal position in relation to field size and lengths behind).