1st/2nd time starter mechanical method

[Ocala Mike]

2TS/FTL in my tool box for years - don't have the stats, but I believe intuitively it is a positive angle (though used to work better years ago - public catching on).

[NorCalGreg]

Yeah....think that 2nd Start-First Juice is pretty played out now.

Here's something to think about, along with that:

I've noticed (but have no stats) a lot of 2ND TIME LASIX horses win. In some cases---it could be that FT lasix is made note of--there's no notation for 2nd lasix.... other than the "L" from the previous race.

I'm always looking for "suspicious" trainer moves....there's nothing illegal about not giving 100% first time lasix...but it just may happen there's a better price when there's no special notation today about Lasix use.

Food for thought...

[Murph]

Magnolia Mountain is an MSW 3rd time starter, 2nd time lasix. Laid off since Saratoga last August he shows long line of decent local works but hasn't found a spot until today. They will end up facing a well bred, by Tapit out of a strong Awsome Again mare, FTS in the godolphin runner Old Dubai

For my wager here today I have these two to WIN, Exacta boxed and over ALL in a trifecta.

The 2nd time lasix angle research I did shows win% in the 11- 14% range. The data returns an average of just over 2 runners per all maiden race from 35,000 plus runners over the past year. All data sets return net loss at 20% +/- 3.

Broken down to the above specific terms I get 15% win rate from 790 runners and 1.7 average runner per field. is 2nd time starter, 2nd time lasix. Ranger's Coming is a positive roi angle for his running style from post 1 at GP. He looks to be outpaced today and the angle is due to cool a bit anyway.

2yo MSW's at Keeneland in April are best for me to watch from past experience. Spring racing is heating up.

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Yeah....think that 2nd Start-First Juice is pretty played out now.

Here's something to think about, along with that:

I've noticed (but have no stats) a lot of 2ND TIME LASIX horses win. In some cases---it could be that FT lasix is made note of--there's no notation for 2nd lasix.... other than the "L" from the previous race.

I'm always looking for "suspicious" trainer moves....there's nothing illegal about not giving 100% first time lasix...but it just may happen there's a better price when there's no special notation today about Lasix use.

Food for thought...

2nd time lasix is a lesson we've talked out before, and for good reason:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=127098

[Murph]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

2nd time lasix is a lesson we've talked out before, and for good reason:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=127098

Good. good..good. Thank you RR! The Magnolia Mountain play lacks the recency factor which I ignore at my peril. Nice heads up.

[NorCalGreg]

Hmmm....didn't even remember that thread. The horse I touted in that thread JUNGER....as one to keep an eye on---evidently is retired today----an 0 for 25 winless maiden.

You can take him off your HTW list now

[NorCalGreg]

May have found a nice maiden to play @ Santa Anita 11th race.

Originally liked FREGOSI....until I looked a little deeper and saw 2nd-time starter TASTEMAKER 12-1 .
Rested since the first of the year, he drops into this 75K Md 1M Turf claimer, switches from Arroyo to Nakatani, had trouble in his first outing.
The clincher is this horse's worktab......he's working 5,6,7F right on schedule--which long workouts indicates this should be an all-out effort today. If his SR improves the standard 10 points in the 2nd outing....he's golden.

At 12-1....I'll take a shot.

-NCG