1st/2nd time starter mechanical method

[FakeNameChanged]

Greg, not a FTS or 2ndTS but #12-Simply a Gem is an automatic play for me in MC10000. He's returning in five days or less(4 days) as a beaten favorite in last race. If he isn't bet down to half his 12-1 ML, I'd be surprised. As a Parx fan, I also love horses shipping from Laurel.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Anyone that wants to--post up your Maiden play of the day.

Here's mine:

PARX RACE 3 UNLIMITED RESOURCE 9-2 ML

Trainer Lindner is having an atrocious meet--but I do recall these connections like to sometimes "supplement their income". This trainer is better than his recent record.

That last race has a complete, textbook "manufactured" fade.....do the math 1..5..10..15

Same thing 3 back: 4..8..12..16 or close to it--doesn't matter--it's too perfect.

It appears that last race-- the rider did exactly as he was instructed...and today we should see a game effort. Shows a recent work as well.

-NCG

Alright...Unlimited Resource $8.80 to win I'm on a one-race maiden win streak Been awhile since I capped any race with just a form (Platinum comes with a satisfactory condensed PP's so that's what I used). Actually I did notice Unlimited' was Top Power in the race.

Turf Paradise has a bottom-of-the-barrel 5K MD claimer going today in the 8th..not much to write to home to mama about...most are career maidens but somebody has to win. Platinum projects WISCONSIN KATE as a lone speed play, but I have my eye on a different horse:

FAIR STATEMENT 6-1 ML ...only her 4rd lifetime race--she started off her career in a 35K race by earning a -5 SPEED RATING
yes, MINUS FIVE speed rating. Did she bust the gate then turn around and go back inside? LOL the chartmaker said "NO FACTOR--OUTRUN"

The things you see when you actually look at the past performances. That race earned her a 16 month layoff...she next turned up at Portland Meadows at a similar level and ran quite well--finishing 4th by 3 lengths. Now she turns up 3 weeks ago @ TUP--ran a nice conditioning race--blew out the 1/2 mile then faded evenly.

Worked out twice since--and switches to local star JM Bourdeu. This girl looks finally fit and should be able to handle these, if so.

My other maiden is in a similar race/level at Penn. Gawd these are the dregs of horsedom...and trainer-dom....and jockey-dom. I have to go with former GGF wonderboy Jonny Wong and RED CHANT @ 5-2 to get it done.

SHOT THE SHERIFF 3-1 ML looks like connections mean business--but I just refuse to bet an 0-16 horse.

There is something interesting I saw...the pace setup is just begging for someone with any speed to go ahead and steal the race---that would be the 0 for 16 horse, and one other--HARRY IN THE WOODS 7/2 ML. 0 for 12--but ITM 6 times. Top jock stays, but the rest of the connections are pretty grim.

Here's the thing with Harry....I look at the E-1 figs--starting from the first race showing--and slowly take in the "flow" of the numbers. Ideally you want to see the worst numbers at the bottom and get better and better til you get to the last race.

That's exactly what HARRY is showing. He's a speedy horse in a race crying out for speed--is right now at the top of his speed Apex...BUT--with his history of being camera shy--the atrocious connections..and measly 7/2 ML--I'll pass thank you very much.

-Anyone else like a maiden running today--go ahead and post it up please

Here's why I think Harry is at his speediest best today:

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Greg, not a FTS or 2ndTS but #12-Simply a Gem is an automatic play for me in MC10000. He's returning in five days or less(4 days) as a beaten favorite in last race. If he isn't bet down to half his 12-1 ML, I'd be surprised. As a Parx fan, I also love horses shipping from Laurel.

I did notice that horse coming back so quickly--he's showing a flurry of activity in the past month. I didn't see the race, but was curious what Gem went off at--so looked at the chart.

Here's what I think happened--his last race he took what looks like a suspicious odds-drop to near favorite. I'm thinking THAT race was an all-out effort, with some $$ put down.

He ran a good race then, just didn't get it done. I noticed the 24% jockey McCarthy stayed...and the chartmaker said the horse ran "very wide throughout" yesterday-- or something like that.

If this race was a "decoy"...maybe Gem will appear back in two weeks or so...at the same level. He was 8-1 yesterday, his odds should be much higher.

He's on my watch list

[mountainman]

Good topic. Pertaining to firsters: I like sires that were, themselves, precocious. And one or two workout patterns tend to catch my eye. This may sound counter-intuitive, but I tend to avoid lengthening workouts, as this implies a horseman playing catchup with a firster perhaps lacking the proper foundation. A series of shortening drills more often appeals, since it shows confidence in the runner's fitness.

That said, and I know this sounds contradictory, I am not a fan of 3- furlong blowouts. They do nothing to enhance an animal's fitness and rarely achieve the desired effect of instilling zip or sharpness. In addition, any t-bred can maintain high-speed for 3/8...and any horse on the backstretch can turn in a good 3-furlong drill.

Interestingly, I once saw comprehensive statistics establishing the necessity of a drill covering at least 5-furlongs if a firster is to succeed going 5 1/2 furlongs or longer.

I also prefer firsters debuting where they live and train, and outfits showing past success with debut runners. Simple stuff, I know, but tons of trainers-often exceptional ones-almost never crack first-time-out.

Pattern matches with a barn's previous winners are , as well, important to me, and formulator works perfectly for that. I do, however, consider Formulator's sire and dam section to be poorly laid out and lacking helpful info.

I should qualify these meanderings by admitting neither pedigree, nor workouts are a forte of mine, and that firsters are only an option in rare instances. I am a dinosaur in this regard and never play firsters in claiming races, nor when experienced entrants show talent and offer value.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

This is something I've put together--in an attempt to come up with a mechanical method for first & second time starters.

Many of these winners have top connections, and usually an eye-popping workout (or two) somewhere in their last 3. In addition to regular works with out gaps.

Many 2nd-time starters will show an equipt change, dist switch, juice--SOMETHING to indicate today is a serious effort.

The 3F last workout getting an extra 5 points...is really only to separate closely matched horses at the top (if this occurs)

Has anyone done Maiden research they would like to share?---or suggestions, comments on improving this method will be appreciated.

MAIDEN FIRST OR SECOND START METHOD

1. ADD TOGETHER AMOUNT OF HORSES BEATEN IN LAST 3 WORKOUTS.

2. ADD TOGETHER TRAINER/JOCKEY INDIVIDUAL WIN% (not as a team-each individual win % ytd)

3. 10 POINTS EACH FOR 1ST LASIX, BLINKERS, JOCKEY SWITCH, DISTANCE SWITCH OF 1 LENGTH OR MORE. (applies to 2nd time starters.

4. 5 POINTS FOR EVERY WORKOUT/RACE LAST 30 DAYS.

5. EXTRA 5 POINTS IF HORSE'S VERY LAST WORKOUT WAS 3F. IF 2ND TIME STARTER MUST BE AFTER HIS 1ST RACE.

-NCG

Not my style, but interesting approach. Byron Scott, whom I once did a seminar with, devised a method of classifying msw fields that was similarly thought- provoking. If I can dig up the article, I'll outline his criteria.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by mountainman

Not my style, but interesting approach. Byron Scott, whom I once did a seminar with, devised a method of classifying msw fields that was similarly thought- provoking. If I can dig up the article, I'll outline his criteria.

Thank you, MM....that above method was actually a "first draft" of this maiden method I'm trying to mechanize. I'm finding a lot of it is more nuance and gut intuition--than hard and fast rules.

It's actually fun to try to get inside the trainer's head--figure out what they're trying to do here, today. Some I don't think even the trainer has a clue .

So far....I'm 3 for 3 selecting maidens--which is surprising because I've always avoided these. I'm sure my come-uppance is due....thanks for responding and I'd be interested in that Scott article if you can dig it up.

While I'm posting here's my maiden-of-the-day pick:

SANTA ANITA 6TH RACE WONDERING WAYS 4-1 ML

It was really difficult deciding between this one and ZACHIAN @ 6-1. Both look fit and ready to roll, but went with Wondering Ways strictly on the class factor....2nd off for Koriner...looks like today's the day--NCG

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Thank you, MM....that above method was actually a "first draft" of this maiden method I'm trying to mechanize. I'm finding a lot of it is more nuance and gut intuition--than hard and fast rules.

It's actually fun to try to get inside the trainer's head--figure out what they're trying to do here, today. Some I don't think even the trainer has a clue .

So far....I'm 3 for 3 selecting maidens--which is surprising because I've always avoided these. I'm sure my come-uppance is due....thanks for responding and I'd be interested in that Scott article if you can dig it up.

While I'm posting here's my maiden-of-the-day pick:

SANTA ANITA 6TH RACE WONDERING WAYS 4-1 ML

It was really difficult deciding between this one and ZACHIAN @ 6-1. Both look fit and ready to roll, but went with Wondering Ways strictly on the class factor....2nd off for Koriner...looks like today's the day--NCG

I think the article might be in my desk, and I return to work apr, 10, Greg. And I meant Byron King..lol.....not the old laker's shooting guard.

Nice job on the picks, btw.

[dirt]

Race 9 #6 Joy Waltz

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by mountainman

I think the article might be in my desk, and I return to work apr, 10, Greg. And I meant Byron King..lol.....not the old laker's shooting guard.

Nice job on the picks, btw.

You know....I was gonna say---with all his NBA coaching duties, etc....how Byron Scott ever finds the time to write horse racing handicapping articles----sounds like a true renaissance man

[NorCalGreg]

My maiden @ Santa Anita WONDERING WAYS...unfortunately did not win---or even hit the board.

Today's a new day--a new meet @ Aqueduct. A Maiden in the 2nd race has piqued my interest.

FLUX CAPACITOR 8-1 ML...has several angles going for him today.
He blew out a 1/2 mile last race, and then--as Mike Tyson said "faded into Bolivia". Back in 12 days--a good sign after the worst race of his life. He also shows a nice cycle-4 odds pop.

The only question is 'Flux seems a little camera shy, but here's to hoping 2nd-start trainer Gary Contessa--who shows a nice profit with this angle--can work his mojo.

The price is certainly right--NCG

[jk3521]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

My maiden @ Santa Anita WONDERING WAYS...unfortunately did not win---or even hit the board.

Today's a new day--a new meet @ Aqueduct. A Maiden in the 2nd race has piqued my interest.

FLUX CAPACITOR 8-1 ML...has several angles going for him today.
He blew out a 1/2 mile last race, and then--as Mike Tyson said "faded into Bolivia". Back in 12 days--a good sign after the worst race of his life. He also shows a nice cycle-4 odds pop.

The only question is 'Flux seems a little camera shy, but here's to hoping 2nd-start trainer Gary Contessa--who shows a nice profit with this angle--can work his mojo.

The price is certainly right--NCG

Sorry they scratched. Looks like you had a live one there.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by jk3521

Sorry they scratched. Looks like you had a live one there.

Aww dangit......thanks Joe.

[Murph]

The Becker Stiritz angle just paid me on a cold DD in the opener at Hawthorne.

Maidens today -

Race 4 15K Mdb Clm IL Bred F&M
Angle sends an uncoupled entry # Positionedtodance and # Royal City.

Race 6 15K Mdn Clm 15K F&M
# Aprettystandin

[Murph]

Originally Posted by Murph

The Becker Stiritz angle just paid me on a cold DD in the opener at Hawthorne.

Maidens today -

Race 4 15K Mdb Clm IL Bred F&M
Angle sends an uncoupled entry # Positionedtodance and # Royal City.

Race 6 15K Mdn Clm 15K F&M
# Aprettystandin

OK No more FTS plays from this pair. Royal City refused to load and she nor Aprettystandin showed up after the qtr pole.

Positionedtodance ran well but failed to get the lead early from FTS and wire to wire winner # Kim Dandy out for M Stidham. Was not asked for her best late.

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Murph

OK No more FTS plays from this pair. Royal City refused to load and she nor Aprettystandin showed up after the qtr pole.

Positionedtodance ran well but failed to get the lead early from FTS and wire to wire winner # Kim Dandy out for M Stidham. Was not asked for her best late.

Murph, would you happen to have the Bris Ultimate PPs for this race?