1st/2nd time starter mechanical method

[NorCalGreg]

This initial test doesn't show much--actually out of 11 there was only one winner ($5.40).

The point is--this is an idea for a longshot method so most of those 11 wouldn't have qualified. It doesn't help the case that there was only 1 winner anyway.

There was a nice winner @ Aq this past Sunday 19th--later on I was going over PP's--and almost cried This horse TERRY O GERI was perfect--the works were regular--coming closer together as D-Day approached. The kicker was her final workout--3F that was 5th of 71 on that day. This horse was razor sharp--coming of a long layoff for his 2nd career start.

Trainer Gary Contessa shows a flat bet profit on layoff horses to add luster to the deal.

THIS is exactly the kind of Maiden I want to be alerted to, with my method. He shows 4 w/o in the 30 days preceding...beat 50 horses in his last w/o---and was dropping in class to boot

Terry O Geri paid $25.80

[Murph]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Trainer Gary Contessa shows a flat bet profit on layoff horses to add luster to the deal.

THIS is exactly the kind of Maiden I want to be alerted to, with my method. He shows 4 w/o in the 30 days preceding...beat 50 horses in his last w/o---and was dropping in class to boot

Terry O Geri paid $25.80

I've been punching angles in the Racelens on your question, Greg and I'm not finding anything that can tip to the 8/1 plus shots on form data. There are research tabs on workouts for furlongs per day and a couple others and I can limit to first and/or 2nd time starters. I don't use enough imagination in creating angles so there might be some jewels buried in there.

Trainer, jockey stats from the form return more consistency but no profits. I'm finding small success with specific sires with these types but too little profit again. Well known sires and widely published stats when they are hitting.

Drill down stats for specific trainers and trainer's moves and jock on specific types of runners and some others all return spotty results. Any prices found appear to be outliers that cannot figure to tip us with any confidence.

Let's keep looking.

[Mulerider]

Just had one of those "kick myself" moments. Found myself needing at least a 6/1 shot to win a tournament. Turf Paradise 8, the was a FTS with a J/T factor of 26. The jock has an overall win rate of 18%, but on N/A types it's 23%. I decided I'd play him. Horse sat at 6/1 until the last minute before post and dropped to 5/1. I got off him at the last second before cutoff and went with another horse. Of course as the gate opened I see the firster I just abandoned is now at 8/1. And, naturally, he closed like a freight train and won, paying $18.60 -- $6.60 -- $3.40. And cost me the contest. Lol. This game can drive you insane.

Mule

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Just had one of those "kick myself" moments. Found myself needing at least a 6/1 shot to win a tournament. Turf Paradise 8, the was a FTS with a J/T factor of 26. The jock has an overall win rate of 18%, but on N/A types it's 23%. I decided I'd play him. Horse sat at 6/1 until the last minute before post and dropped to 5/1. I got off him at the last second before cutoff and went with another horse. Of course as the gate opened I see the firster I just abandoned is now at 8/1. And, naturally, he closed like a freight train and won, paying $18.60 -- $6.60 -- $3.40. And cost me the contest. Lol. This game can drive you insane.

Mule

I didn't see much there...of course how much are you going to see that's impressive with older maidens at the bottom of the barrel.

I did notice that 3F blowout (what could pass as a "blowout" for the absolute bottom level)---4 days ago. Plus that trainer Silva has been known to keep bettors guessing.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Murph

I've been punching angles in the Racelens on your question, Greg and I'm not finding anything that can tip to the 8/1 plus shots on form data. There are research tabs on workouts for furlongs per day and a couple others and I can limit to first and/or 2nd time starters. I don't use enough imagination in creating angles so there might be some jewels buried in there.

Trainer, jockey stats from the form return more consistency but no profits. I'm finding small success with specific sires with these types but too little profit again. Well known sires and widely published stats when they are hitting.

Drill down stats for specific trainers and trainer's moves and jock on specific types of runners and some others all return spotty results. Any prices found appear to be outliers that cannot figure to tip us with any confidence.

Let's keep looking.

What's that Race Lens doing for you, Murph? Any winners you wouldn't find otherwise? What I've read about it--users can find some "hidden" horses, which is what I like to find.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

What's that Race Lens doing for you, Murph? Any winners you wouldn't find otherwise? What I've read about it--users can find some "hidden" horses, which is what I like to find.

It is prompting me to elevate my advanced handicapping techniques to begin with. This software is rich with features that need to be clearly understood to use them properly. It's great fun for me to work with and provides a myriad of custom options.

Racelens helped make it quickly obvious how wagering decisions are holding me back from profits. What you can do about it still boils down to a chunk of hard work, as usual. It's worth a long look for anyone looking to update to modern web based technologies.

It does what you are asking your software to do very nicely in scrubbing PP info based on very specific criteria and notifying you to the plays. What I find in general is that I can easily save time and effort reinforcing what I already know, which turns out to only be mildly profitable. No news there.

I feel like I could do a better job using the query tools for your 1st/2nd starters info and so much more if I polish my methods and find ways to be more creative in asking for past data that can produce better results.

That's the plan anyway. I'll keep you posted.

[Murph]

Attached are PPs for Friday HAW R4 entry #1 Hide the Green. This play looks like lightning in a saddlecloth for this spot. The special condition is IL bred/conceived restricted. Blinkers on, races back in 10 days, pops a 3F breeze 2 days after his debut and gets a positive jockey switch here. Today he will break from #1 post after starting outside in his last with similar competition. His odds should be about 30 to 1 I think.

He matches a break even angle I created for 2nd time starters with positive trainer jockey roi that has won 13% in 48 starts last 12 months. This angle terms easily transfers to most D-base query. I posted screenshots for 12 mo and 6 mo results. You can see my query terms to create this angle. 1 month results are 0 for 3. One or both of the Bentler Batista team did not have a qualifying roi when they won earlier in the meeting with a different runner. This T/J team is an angle on it's own now for me.

He also matches the B/O/T angle. The handicapping theory is that a runner who is put in training by the B/O/T must be well intended and may be reserved for certain spotted racing opportunities.

The breeder owner trainer connection is easy to read and understand in this case but may be difficult to search for and connect. In this case that looks certain with an owner/trainer search to connect them. The below terms are difficult to connect.

Common LAST NAME Bentler

Breeder Name= Don (common name) & Judy (common name)
Owner Name= Judy (common name) & Partner (any name)
Trainer Name= Don (common name)

This is exactly the kind of play I am looking for with the Same breeder/ owner/ trainer angle and the owner trainer angle as well.

[Murph]

What racelens does here is help verify this play so we can make a bet based on YOUR angle in an attempt to repeat the 6 month roi and boost the success rate number. Looking at the PP for Hide the Green and note the situational statistics. In the header and the footer we can set the criteria for results on trainer, jockey, sire and dam. The trainer stat is the only one I have saved for use on the PP display so far. The colors and circles are conditional formatting ie. a higher purse is highlighted yellow. So many options for displaying PP lines. Like the pace ratings here instead of times.

Trainer Bentler situationals in black are fixed on the display. The red stat Today I set for all trainers past 2yrs, distance, surface, 3yo up. Kind of doubles the past 365 day dist/surf window. At the bottom for Bentler I get very specific results. I set all trainers to return past 5 years, today's situation, trainer move then 3yo and up. So this is the 1st time in the past 5 yrs he has raced a 2nd time starter going blinkers on that s not a 2yo.

Today jock sire and dam stats are set to default and are the same top and bottom. They are all links to the research queries to make the stats. So I click on Alexis "X_MAN" Batista to get the first screenshot. Leads me to the question what makes Batista a positive switch? I ask how does he do on maidens for the next screenshot. Then finally 30 day results for the meeting.
For each result you get the list of runners making them up and the prime info on mini running lines. Click on the headers to sort. The 30 day list is now very relevant to today's conditions. The runner who qualified your angle is here on the list. Batista is good in this situation and they just pulled this one off at 40-1. Bentler is a B/O/T for all 3 of his runners on the list. The HAW trainers on the list will all send similar runners to Indiana at some point this year.

BTW My play is $10 WIN and SHOW on Hide the Green today. Was that too much?

[Murph]

The auto play is 2nd time starter # Royal Commish.

Double angle match for top connections, meets workout requirements to beat 54 of 74 in 3 nice, recent works at FP since Feb 28. No equipment change on for today.

PP info support - Earned competitive pace ratings at a higher purse in his debut race and 2nd place there, Helluva Choice has come back to win since.

Angles matched are 1. HAW trainer, 50% ITM, ROI >0
Returns for 12 month result are 90 starts for a 37% WIN, a 27% ROI and 9.2 score.

To find who may be having this success I made angle #2. Trainer Scott Becker and owner William Stiritz at HAW.
Returns for 12 month are 123 starts for a 39% WIN, a 27% ROI and 9.2 score! For the meeting 30 day result is 18 starts for a 50% win rate, a 39% ROI and 7.8 score.

BONUS PLAY!
HAW R4 the same double angle match is shown for #3 Little Ike
HAW R5 the owner trainer angle matches the uncoupled entry # Saturday's Song and # Amazing Peyton

NONE of these plays are a ML favorite. Hope you all hit 'em good today.

[NorCalGreg]

Interesting.....I like it. There is nothing sweeter in handicapping than finding that hidden gem. I see you ran 2nd on both---with neither well-bet....the bane of longshot players.

I'll definitely look into this Race Lens a bit more.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Interesting.....I like it. There is nothing sweeter in handicapping than finding that hidden gem. I see you ran 2nd on both---with neither well-bet....the bane of longshot players.

I'll definitely look into this Race Lens a bit more.

I doubt if you'll regret it. For a data miner it's kinda like the diamond pickaxe in that v-game. I would like to know what you think of the relations made to calling up statistics vs creating and building (editing) the angles. There's things I can do when making angles that can freeze the search so I have to learn this on the fly.

Most interesting is every race card is provided with an XML file link to ALL of the past performance file data. I can use chrome dev tools to make XSLT and java objects (? left to learn) to display this data with custom calculations like the workout tab info you call for here.

Your software is doing a very good job of hiding much of the complexity of these decisions then delivering the benefits. It looks like this is exactly how it is designed. I really like it. I'm still undecided about going to tools like you provide and play as a hobby or throwing the kitchen sink at this thing and trying the deep end again.

Seems like I am a butterfly guppy in the shark tank at sea world most days. I'll keep posting maiden angle info and spot plays here when I find anything interesting. Keep it up, you've been on quite a roll lately!

[Mulerider]

Greg, the in Tup 8, a FTS, just saved my tournament bacon in a cheap head-to-head. I didn't chicken out at the last minute like last week. The J/T factor was 31 (trainer 20 on FTS, jock 11 on N/A running style). The horse and I won. He paid $17.80 - 11.20 - 9.00. His only notable work was his last 5 days ago, 5f in 1:00.2.

It was the last race, and I had a smoking score of $0 to that point, so I almost felt guilty.

Almost.

Mule

[NorCalGreg]

Nice, mule....think you have something there.

Honestly....being a win bettor, I've always just passed maiden races. Who needs 'em? Plenty of other opportunities on the card--horses with some REAL measurable handicapping points.

Since beginning pick-4 playing...I'm finding you just can't ignore them anymore. Interestingly enough---there actually IS plenty of info on the non-winners and Firsters.

Mule and Murph have already hit on the connections part of the puzzle. The more I study, the more I'm finding out who IS trying to win right off the bat, and who's just out for a stroll. Also..some trainers just aren't that savvy and really dont know what the heck they're doing.

Anyway...what I've found so far---are the last 3 workouts are of utmost importance. All regular workouts--right on schedule leading up to today is vital. And there is something about the "6-days ago" last workout being an indicator of today's plans...

BugBoy brought up the FTS SAPPORO on the last race of AQ Sunday. Very interesting...he would have won if MELODRAMATIC MISS didn't finally pick that day to actually run.

There was another firster in that race--SWEET CIDER...this is an extreme example---but looking at the last 3 workouts for both horses--even with 'Cider showing a work 6 days ago--it's obvious which direction both are heading today.

The reason I didn't bet Sapporo is--I didn't see that one big monster work anywhere that would have given me reassurance today was "the day"....and this horse was indeed capable.

Sapporo didn't show that big workout...but WAS capable--so you live and learn.

Besides, looking at his record-- trainer Levine knows what he's doing with a first-timer. The other FTS trainer was shaky.

One last thing about trainers---I think it's either Linda Rice or maybe Michelle Nevin---that NEVER works their horses fast. So that's another example of trainer knowledge that's vital--NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Anyone that wants to--post up your Maiden play of the day.

Here's mine:

PARX RACE 3 UNLIMITED RESOURCE 9-2 ML

Trainer Lindner is having an atrocious meet--but I do recall these connections like to sometimes "supplement their income". This trainer is better than his recent record.

That last race has a complete, textbook "manufactured" fade.....do the math 1..5..10..15

Same thing 3 back: 4..8..12..16 or close to it--doesn't matter--it's too perfect.

It appears that last race-- the rider did exactly as he was instructed...and today we should see a game effort. Shows a recent work as well.

-NCG

[tholl]

Following this thread with interest as I have worked on devising a pedigree rating idea for first time starters using the sire and damsire. Paying no attention to trainer/jockey stats or workouts, just pedigree on the sire and damsire. The final adjusted rating takes into account type of race, age and sex of runner. 975 is the highest possible final rating and anything over 850 is acceptable.

Looked at some of the recent first time starters mentioned in the thread. Uncle Ackie at TUP yesterday got a good figure of 881. Combined with the high trainer % was surprised that he paid so well. The two at Aqueduct (Sapporo and Sweet Cider) both had lowish FTS Ratings and both were downgraded on the final figure being five-year-old mares which are unprofitable in maiden claiming races. Here are my figures for those three.

03/27/17 TuP8 6f dirt MC12500
#6 Uncle Ackie 3g Sire: Old Topper FTS Rating: 440
Damsire: Harbor the Gold FTS Rating:410. Final Adjusted Rating: 881.

03/26/17 Aqu9 6f dirt MC25000s
#11 Sapporo 5m Sire: Fusaichi Pegasus FTS Rating:360 Damsire: Louis Quatorze FTS Rating: 370 Final Adjusted Rating: 657.
03/26/17 Aqu9 6f dirt MC25000s
#2 Sweet Cider 5m Sire: Stonesider FTS Rating: 340 Damsire: Peteski FTS Rating: 350 Final Adjusted Rating: 621.


Don't see much to look at today. The best first time starter I found is WRD Race 7 #4 Sly Kitten but she gets a final figure of an average 785.

Have some on Thursday that would be curious to hear your opinion: SA Race 6 #3 Tune To Win. SA Race 8 #9 Blushing Ann. Penn Race 2 #2 Inverchapel.