 |
|
03-07-2021, 10:51 PM
|
#46
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
1 2 3 4 5
1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
2 ---- ---- ---- ---- 11
3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
03-07-2021, 10:59 PM
|
#47
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
Remington Park* Race 10 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 12
3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
7 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
8 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 12
9 ---- 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
37 0.00 13.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.90
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 09:06 AM
|
#48
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
correction
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
last 6 column plays, $1200 bet, $1580 returned
last matrix play, 22 bet 0 returned |
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 09:16 AM
|
#49
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
yesterdays results
11 column plays $2200 bet, $1580 returned
6 matrix plays $188 bet, $316 returned
1580/2200 = $1 return of $0.79
316/188 =$1 return of $ 1.68
when all plays are normalized, the $1 return =( $1.68 + $0.79)/2 = $1.23
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 03:08 PM
|
#50
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
yesterdays results
11 column plays $2200 bet, $1580 returned
6 matrix plays $188 bet, $316 returned
1580/2200 = $1 return of $0.79
316/188 =$1 return of $ 1.68
when all plays are normalized, the $1 return =( $1.68 + $0.79)/2 = $1.23 |
correction
normalized to $0.87
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
03-08-2021, 07:25 PM
|
#51
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Always looking for an edge
here is the play.
when the total matrix play >=$200
play matrix row and column for the selected horse combinations AND play columns 1 and 4 for the column play.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
03-09-2021, 08:44 AM
|
#52
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
UK Newcastle* Race 1 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 1 12 7 probability 72%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0
1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 21 ---- ---- ---- ---- 24 ---- ---- ---- 45
2 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 11 ---- ---- ---- 0
3 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 11 ---- ---- ---- 0
4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
7 18 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 17 ---- ---- ---- 35
8 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 10 ---- ---- ---- 0
9 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
12 24 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 19 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 43
13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
177 62.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 73.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 299.06
Code:
UK Newcastle* Race 1
1 12 1 12
un un ov 0v
1 0 88 0 88
12 83 0 83 0
7 17 12 17 12
3 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 0 0
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 03-09-2021 at 08:46 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
03-09-2021, 10:22 AM
|
#53
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
the 7/1 exacta won $1 track exacta payout was $20.60
the total matrix bet size was $299 it returned $803
the col 1 and 4 bet size totaled $200, the column 1 returned $344
total play was $499. for a return of $1147
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
03-10-2021, 11:31 AM
|
#54
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
UK Lingfield Park* Race 7 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 9 1 6 probability 74%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0
1 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 10 ---- ---- 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 26
2 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
4 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
7 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
8 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
9 16 ---- ---- ---- ---- 13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 30
10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
11 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 21
12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0
130 37.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.82 0.00 0.00 69.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 206.52
#DIV/0! 1 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Code:
UK Lingfield Park* Race 7
9 1 9 1
un un ov 0v
9 0 57 0 57
1 35 0 35 0
6 20 13 20 13
4 9 6 9 6
11 14 9 14 9
8 14 9 14 9
10 8 6 8 6
2 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 0 0
12 0 0 0 0
14 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0
13 0 0 0 0
15 0 0 0 0
16 0 0 0 0
100 100 100 100 400
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 03-10-2021 at 11:32 AM.
|
|
|
|
|
03-10-2021, 12:00 PM
|
#55
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
the 9/10 exacta won $1 track exacta payout was $19.90
the total matrix bet size was $206 it returned $219
the col 1 and 4 bet size totaled $200, the column 1 and 4 returned $0.00
total play was $406. for a return of $219
previous play was $499. for a return of $1147
sums, play $905, return $1366
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 03-10-2021 at 12:07 PM.
|
|
|
|
|
03-10-2021, 12:20 PM
|
#56
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Code:
UK Kempton Park* Race 3 KEY TO THE MINT EXACTA PLAYS - PLAY THE BET SIZES picks >>>> 2 12 1 probability 74%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 0 37
1 ---- 15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 16 ---- ---- ---- 31 1
2 17 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 17 ---- ---- ---- 34 2
3 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 3
4 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 4
5 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 5
6 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 6
7 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 7
8 12 12 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 13 ---- ---- ---- 0 8
9 12 11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 12 ---- ---- ---- 0 9
10 10 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 10 ---- ---- ---- 0 10
11 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 11
12 17 17 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 33 12
13 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 13
14 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 14
15 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 15
16 ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- 0 16
199 77.38 54.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 67.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 297.32
#DIV/0! 1 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
Code:
UK Kempton Park* Race 3
2 12 2 12
un un ov 0v
2 0 48 0 48
12 41 0 41 0
1 37 33 37 33
8 9 8 9 8
9 7 6 7 6
10 5 5 5 5
4 0 0 0 0
11 0 0 0 0
14 0 0 0 0
3 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 0 0
13 0 0 0 0
7 0 0 0 0
15 0 0 0 0
16 0 0 0 0
100 100 100 100 400
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
03-10-2021, 01:05 PM
|
#57
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
the 4/1 exacta won $1 track exacta payout was $75.5
the total matrix bet size was $297 it returned $755.00
the col 1 and 4 bet size totaled $200, the column 1 and 4 returned $0.00
total play was $497. for a return of $755
previous 2 race sum was $905. for a return of $1366
current 3 race sum, play $1402, return $2121
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
03-12-2021, 08:07 AM
|
#58
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
|
I'm sure there's some interesting ideas and information in what you are posting, but I don't understand what is leading to the plays. If you don't want to reveal it because there's positive value relative to the take, I fully understand that  but it's hard to make sense of the thread when you are posting a matrix and result without giving more details of the why. Did I miss something?
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
|
|
|
|
|
03-12-2021, 11:01 AM
|
#59
|
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,652
|
I am curious if you are making these plays or just theoretical? If not making plays, do you recalculate pool after your bets and effect on pay-offs to get new winning pay?
A $200 cold exacta will effect a $12000 pool.
|
|
|
|
03-12-2021, 11:10 AM
|
#60
|
|
what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'm sure there's some interesting ideas and information in what you are posting, but I don't understand what is leading to the plays. If you don't want to reveal it because there's positive value relative to the take, I fully understand that but it's hard to make sense of the thread when you are posting a matrix and result without giving more details of the why. Did I miss something? |
It all about tote board win, place, show and exacta $$$.
I'm handicapping the public, not the horses.
as long as these pools remain separate there is a opportunity for an edge over the takeout.
working with a current a data base of over 600 races, I can do a lot of "what ifs".. I have narrowed the "what ifs" down to what may have value.
when I present a play in the exacta matrix, i concentrate on the top three public choices ,generally with 1 to 2 minutes before they load into the gate.
the play is along the rows and columns of the matrix.
the matrix is a play when the sum of the bet sizes for the rows and columns is greater than $200.
that play also provides an additional play in what I call columns 1 and 4, which separate from the matrix play..( top two choices)
additionally, when there are no matrix plays, the play is for columns 3 and 4 (also top two choices)
i'm going to set up two threads of study
one for the matrix and column plays, another just for the column plays.
unfortunately, since twinspires changed their tote board format, i'm using the nyra bets which requires me to cut and paste the win and exacta pools.
using the old twinspires format, i was able to automate the tote board down loads.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
|
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|
