NYRA: Saratoga Race Course’s Summer Season Will Likely Occur Without Fans

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by drib

"idiotic"???? Here is an article today: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/u...es-deaths.html

Headline says it all:LOCKDOWN DELAYS COST AT LEAST 36,000 LIVES, MODELS FIND.
Is there anything you get right????

According to Gov Cuomo there were 56 deaths from coronavirus yesterday in the entire state of NY. It looks like my projections aren't far off.

What will be the narrative now to try and keep the people of NY scared?

[Clocker]

Originally Posted by AndyC

What will be the narrative now to try and keep the people of NY scared?

Tell them Cuomo has proclaimed himself governor for life.

[Elkchester Road]

Originally Posted by AndyC

According to Gov Cuomo there were 56 deaths from coronavirus yesterday in the entire state of NY. It looks like my projections aren't far off.

What will be the narrative now to try and keep the people of NY scared?

Well...they have shown when there is nothing in the present to terrify the masses...projections into the future with this Virus seem to work just fine for them.

[westernmassbob]

From someone “ in the know” at NYRA. Basically they are exploring a very limited attendance to kick off the meet at Saratoga. Tickets must be purchased in advance and the grounds of the track will be broken into quadrants as to what section you will be allowed in. The capped attendance for the first week or two is looking like 5k. There will also be a host of safety rules in place and guests will be encouraged to use NYRA bets while on site although there will be live tellers/ wagering machines. I can see how only allowing 5k into that track will satisfy social distancing guidelines however if they go up from there it could be a challenge. Some track somewhere is going to have to be the first to open to live attendance and I think Saratoga can be the test track. Once again they are exploring this and clearly nothing is official.

[alhattab]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

From someone “ in the know” at NYRA. Basically they are exploring a very limited attendance to kick off the meet at Saratoga. Tickets must be purchased in advance and the grounds of the track will be broken into quadrants as to what section you will be allowed in. The capped attendance for the first week or two is looking like 5k. There will also be a host of safety rules in place and guests will be encouraged to use NYRA bets while on site although there will be live tellers/ wagering machines. I can see how only allowing 5k into that track will satisfy social distancing guidelines however if they go up from there it could be a challenge. Some track somewhere is going to have to be the first to open to live attendance and I think Saratoga can be the test track. Once again they are exploring this and clearly nothing is official.

I had mentioned in another post that I thought they could easily do 10k, but anything is a start. One option I hadn't even considered was expanding the size of the backyard by using the trackside parking lot, which I believe used to actually be part of the backyard before conversion. Move some of the picnic tables out there and put up a few of the large screen TVs and you expand the footprint considerably.

I think Monmouth should open also and could also fit 10k. That may be pushing it a bit numbers-wise but there is plenty of outdoor space there. I don't think there are too many other venues that could handle a reasonably sized crowd in outdoor, open space. Monmouth is scheduled to open July 3. Side note- I read today that Monmouth Park is hosting a "drive in" concert by Southside Johnny and the Asbury Jukes on July 11 as a fundraiser for the Count Basie Theater in Red Bank. It will be in the large grandstand general parking lot

[Tom]

With the new violation of lock down rules, I would not be surprised if they decide to NOT allow racing in NYC. In fact, I think they should delay at least 3 weeks to allow enough time see what damage has been done by the riots.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Tom

With the new violation of lock down rules, I would not be surprised if they decide to NOT allow racing in NYC. In fact, I think they should delay at least 3 weeks to allow enough time see what damage has been done by the riots.

To date, according to the NYC department of health, the death rate from Covid 19 for a person in the 18-44 bracket is .0195%. For 45-64 bracket it is .184%. Unless the rioters/protesters came from the nursing homes or were visiting nursing homes after rioting I doubt that the effect will move the needle. I would have to believe that the overwhelming majority of the rioters/protesters were in the 18-44 bracket meaning they are highly unlikely to suffer and serious adverse effects evenif infected.

[classhandicapper]

The data keeps improving, but the number of new cases nationally has stubbornly remained around 20k daily. Some of that is probably the slow ramp up of testing finding more cases, but I think some states are not having as much success as NY yet because their outbreaks started later.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

To date, according to the NYC department of health, the death rate from Covid 19 for a person in the 18-44 bracket is .0195%. For 45-64 bracket it is .184%. Unless the rioters/protesters came from the nursing homes or were visiting nursing homes after rioting I doubt that the effect will move the needle. I would have to believe that the overwhelming majority of the rioters/protesters were in the 18-44 bracket meaning they are highly unlikely to suffer and serious adverse effects even if infected.

The more I learn, the more I think the media purposely overstated the risks of this virus, but I still think the lock downs were the correct response even if the media is primarily made up of incompetents and politically motivated douche bags.

I think when you are ignorant (as we all were at the start), the correct response is to prepare for the worst case scenario and then hope things turn out better than feared than the other way around. The things that totally destroy systems are the black swans. You have to be willing to be wrong a LOT (which means the outcome was favorable) to avoid black swans.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The data keeps improving, but the number of new cases nationally has stubbornly remained around 20k daily. Some of that is probably the slow ramp up of testing finding more cases, but I think some states are not having as much success as NY yet because their outbreaks started later.

Here is some good news that I have seen mentioned by more than one doctor. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2370OQ

The key with the caseload is the who and not necessarily the how many.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Here is some good news that I have seen mentioned by more than one doctor. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2370OQ

The key with the caseload is the who and not necessarily the how many.

I read a similar article from someone in the US saying it might be losing strength.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by alhattab

I had mentioned in another post that I thought they could easily do 10k, but anything is a start. One option I hadn't even considered was expanding the size of the backyard by using the trackside parking lot, which I believe used to actually be part of the backyard before conversion. Move some of the picnic tables out there and put up a few of the large screen TVs and you expand the footprint considerably.

I like that idea. Question is NYRA’s capacity to put it in place and manage it with limited time. Perhaps even some tables to the left of the Whitney viewing stand.

Its ad hoc parking lot now, but could easily support a decent amount of well-spaced tables.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by westernmassbob

I think Saratoga can be the test track.

Sounds like a great idea. Saratoga and Monmouth.

Somebody has to do it. They can temperature check at the gate,have some social distancing, or whatever they decide is best from a liability standpoint.

Casino at Oaklawn is open. I suspect if racing season was just starting there, they would have opened racing side as well, with some restrictions, already as well.

Unfortunately their season fell at a bad time.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Suff

I like that idea. Question is NYRA’s capacity to put it in place and manage it with limited time. Perhaps even some tables to the left of the Whitney viewing stand.

Its ad hoc parking lot now, but could easily support a decent amount of well-spaced tables.

If the Costco's of the world can make changes almost overnight why would it be hard to prepare in a 5-6 week window?

Per Gov Cuomo this AM there were 49 total Covid deaths in the entire state of NY yesterday. Also the fewest new hospitalizations and new cases. Certainly doesn't look like a virus that will be raging come mid-July.

[dilanesp]

So are you guys all betting Fauci today? He's 4 to 5 on the morning line in the 3rd at Belmont.