Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
1. I quickly survey the field to see if there are any obvious horses who can be eliminated at first glance. Since I play the vertical exotics, I can't afford to discard any but the most obvious throw-outs in the race at the very start of the handicapping process.
2. I have trained myself to start viewing the past-performances from the far right, so I can immediately notice any obvious trouble that the horse might have experienced, especially at the start...which might necessitate that I ignore that particular race in my evaluation of the horse's ability.
3. I identify any changes which might cause the horse's performance today to differ from what this horse has done in its recent races (claims, class maneuvers, jockey changes, equipment changes, etc.)
|
My first two go to bets are Win and Exacta . The horizontal plays are just gravy for me and only usually played in sequence during the “meat “ of the card which is the latter races. I don’t bet cheap tracks , only the major circuits that I know and am familiar with . I don’t care for the maiden races 90 % of the time . I’m looking for patterns and a record that I can evaluate. As to what he posted In number 3 .,,,, I’m also looking for distance/surface changes .
I’m also always looking at least two horses and many times 3 . I look for 3 horses in almost every turf race because the trip and the larger field is a great equalizer. I’ll use the most obvious horse or chalk if it convinced me it’s tough but my theory is “ it’s horse racing “ and there’s at least one horse being overlooked and is an overlay . If you can’t ride with that and find those I don’t see how you can possibly make money .
On the big days I’m trying to figure out where the strongest company was competing. Derby , I’m trying to figure where the best preps were run . On BC day I’m trying to figure out which region or track had the best horses (races) . This year I just thought the Saratoga group was the best . So as one can imagine I did really well this year .
Started on Friday with Fiercness who won by 12 here at Saratoga then posted a nice “trouble line “ in the notes on the right next out. Just like Thask is talking about in number 2. I was teaching a younger guy this summer who asked me about the comments because he didn’t understand them . When you’re looking for an overlay a trouble comment can be huge ! Then watch the replay if you can!
I’m not betting 50 , tracks , 16 hours a day , 7 days a week . Some people talk like they do well doing that . I have to see it to believe that . I’m playing the best , most consistent horses that I can somewhat count on ….. and in this game I use that term loosely . Cause I’ve seen and experienced it all over the years . No result really surprises me . When I see some people react after a crazy outcome . What do you expect ? It’s horses , running in a circle with humans on board ! You ain’t gonna win them all so try to win on things that actually pay something. To do that your mentality has to be willing to lose some without grief ! Take some shots Or constantly cash chalky tickets and lose your money if you’re in it long term .
).
