Stock Market Prediction

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Hope you all enjoyed today's Dead Cat Bounce....Monday is PAIN.

Today was the 4th dead count bounce, by my chart.

Not only that, today it actually closed ABOVE the 200 day moving average for the first time since losing that support level on 1/21.

Not only that, that huge turnaround on January 24 was the biggest volume day since 2/28/20, the beginning of the pandemic plunge.

2/28/20 was also a rebound day (not as impressive as the one 4 days ago, mind you), and the market subsequently closed above the 200 day MA the next day (2/29/20)...and closed above it again two days later....but then turned around and plunged another 800+ points on the S&P (or over 20% drop) before finally hitting bottom on March 23, 2020.

What does this all mean? Not a whole lot. What's happening now is nothing like what happened in 2020.

And because of that, I think we retrace back to the 4500-4550 level on the S&P and test the 100 day moving average. I also think this happens before we see any movement below 4214.

(PS. I'm looking at a daily chart of the S&P futures...doesn't matter though...they are all basically the same when it comes to the S&P and chart formations).

So I kind of disagree that MONDAY = PAIN.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Hope you all enjoyed today's Dead Cat Bounce....Monday is PAIN.

I sold a bunch more stuff literally right into the closing bell. It was awesome.

I suspect today was the market thinking all earnings are going to go like Apple’s did. I don’t see it going that way

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Today was the 4th dead count bounce, by my chart.

Not only that, today it actually closed ABOVE the 200 day moving average for the first time since losing that support level on 1/21.

Not only that, that huge turnaround on January 24 was the biggest volume day since 2/28/20, the beginning of the pandemic plunge.

2/28/20 was also a rebound day (not as impressive as the one 4 days ago, mind you), and the market subsequently closed above the 200 day MA the next day (2/29/20)...and closed above it again two days later....but then turned around and plunged another 800+ points on the S&P (or over 20% drop) before finally hitting bottom on March 23, 2020.

What does this all mean? Not a whole lot. What's happening now is nothing like what happened in 2020.

And because of that, I think we retrace back to the 4500-4550 level on the S&P and test the 100 day moving average. I also think this happens before we see any movement below 4214.

(PS. I'm looking at a daily chart of the S&P futures...doesn't matter though...they are all basically the same when it comes to the S&P and chart formations).

So I kind of disagree that MONDAY = PAIN.

But the overall trend since Santa Clause left the building is down.

Last week my firm prepared the first 10 tax returns of the season. The average refund on those returns a year ago was $6,908. The average refund this year is $223.

Everyone is talking about rates, and totally missing the outlook on the economy.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not saying we won't see a new low before we see a new high.

I'm just saying it looks to me like this is going to take a lot longer than ReplayRandall thinks.

I think this is a "more normal" down market in the making. Normal markets retrace big moves. I'm looking for a 50% retracement of the recent market drop (which would be a test of the 100 day moving average resistance) before it starts dropping below recent lows set in the last week.

[Rex Phinney]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I'm not saying we won't see a new low before we see a new high.

I'm just saying it looks to me like this is going to take a lot longer than ReplayRandall thinks.

I think this is a "more normal" down market in the making. Normal markets retrace big moves. I'm looking for a 50% retracement of the recent market drop (which would be a test of the 100 day moving average resistance) before it starts dropping below recent lows set in the last week.

Ah I see

[lamboguy]

this is hard to admit, but i agree with Replay on this one. maybe we won't have a big down day on Monday, but i see a pretty swift move down this quarter. something like 35% to 40% off the top and maybe even more. that would put the dow at something like 23,000 or less.

my reasoning for this is pretty simple. the leaders in our country along with the rest of the G7 along with the central bankers have been very weak leaders this whole century. its time to pay the price for putting rotten leadership in charge.

the volumes have never been right, i never trusted the move, so i never participated in the big run-up. most of what i have missed i have made up the past month going short. companies like Netflix and Peleton gave up the goose in 6 1/2 hours of trading.

the move up on Friday has done nothing but put more meat on the bone. those fast and furious bounces are only to be expected.

thinking ahead, when the downtrend is over might turn out the best time ever to be long stocks. i would be a buyer if the lows of 2001 get tested and holds.

[PaceAdvantage]

The best time to go long stocks was when Trump got elected in 2016. I recently posted a note on that congratulating reckless for making the greatest call ever seen on this website.

Maybe you missed it.

ReplayRandall explicitly said MONDAY = PAIN.

That means you should definitely go long in the short term.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

The best time to go long stocks was when Trump got elected in 2016. I recently posted a note on that congratulating reckless for making the greatest call ever seen on this website.

Maybe you missed it.

ReplayRandall explicitly said MONDAY = PAIN.

That means you should definitely go long in the short term.

I agree that Monday should be an extension of late Fridays gains...

All high tech stocks were rising after hours too

But WTF do I know.....

If Mikesal57 was still around....

Now he's a genius!!!

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

I agree that Monday should be an extension of late Fridays gains...

All high tech stocks were rising after hours too

But WTF do I know.....

If Mikesal57 was still around....

Now he's a genius!!!

i am going to agree with Replay on this one. i didn't fall in love with the volume on Friday.

[myohmyjustify]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

I agree that Monday should be an extension of late Fridays gains...

All high tech stocks were rising after hours too

But WTF do I know.....

If Mikesal57 was still around....

Now he's a genius!!!

Don't beat yourself up.

No one WTF knows what will happen next in the markets.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am going to agree with Replay on this one. i didn't fall in love with the volume on Friday.

How about the volume on January 24...the day where the market rebounded pretty impressively after being mega-down?

Did you fall in love with that volume?

[PaceAdvantage]

If the market wanted to crash further, it's had ample opportunity this past week...but was thwarted every single time it tried (at least 4 times, by my count).

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Today was the 4th dead count bounce, by my chart.

Not only that, today it actually closed ABOVE the 200 day moving average for the first time since losing that support level on 1/21.

Not only that, that huge turnaround on January 24 was the biggest volume day since 2/28/20, the beginning of the pandemic plunge.

2/28/20 was also a rebound day (not as impressive as the one 4 days ago, mind you), and the market subsequently closed above the 200 day MA the next day (2/29/20)...and closed above it again two days later....but then turned around and plunged another 800+ points on the S&P (or over 20% drop) before finally hitting bottom on March 23, 2020.

What does this all mean? Not a whole lot. What's happening now is nothing like what happened in 2020.

And because of that, I think we retrace back to the 4500-4550 level on the S&P and test the 100 day moving average. I also think this happens before we see any movement below 4214.

(PS. I'm looking at a daily chart of the S&P futures...doesn't matter though...they are all basically the same when it comes to the S&P and chart formations).

So I kind of disagree that MONDAY = PAIN.

the way i look at things is that on January 24th, the market went to lower lows on very heavy volume even though it wound up finishing up for the day. 9

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the way i look at things is that on January 24th, the market went to lower lows on very heavy volume even though it wound up finishing up for the day. 9

That's actually a pretty bullish sign, isn't it?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

That's actually a pretty bullish sign, isn't it?

if you view that day as a key reversal, which it actually was, you would call it bullish. i am looking at it as a day that went to a lower low because pointwise we are close to that low than to a high.

its never easy to make predictions in the markets. i guarantee you there are plenty of traders in this big world that are tearing the hair out of their heads right now, not knowing how to bet these markets right now.