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Old 12-23-2021, 02:06 PM   #1
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
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is a puzzlement

Is a puzzlement!
There are times, perhaps in the range of 60% to 70 % of the time, my overlay exacta board does not produce a winning combination.

When those overlay combinations are excluded from my underlay exacta board, the underlay wins perhaps in the range of 60% to 70%. While the one winning singular combination is an underlay it returns a value that exceeds the probability of the entire underlay exacta board

HERE MY TWO EXACTA BOARDS, AN OVERLAY AND UNDERLAY EXACTA FOR TODAYS 3RD RACE AT SA VAAL

THE SHORT DESCRIPTION:
UNDERLAY EXACTA BOARD USED 88% OF THE EXACTA PROBABILITIES, REQUIRING A MIN $1 RETURN OF $1.14, THE 5/14 EXACTA RETURNED $1.63, WHILE A SINGULAR BET OF THE 5/14 PRODUCED A 67% UNDERLAY.

WHAT I AM NOTICING, A WIN BET ON THE FAVORITE USING THE SUM OF ITS LINE BETS MAY OUT PERFORM A STRAIGHT WIN BET ON THE FAVORITE

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File Type: jpg SA VAAL R3.jpg (396.3 KB, 10 views)
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Old 12-23-2021, 02:22 PM   #2
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I have noticed the same thing with daily doubles

with my odds line, the underlays have a higher hit rate than the overlays
so much so, now I use the underlayings on my win bets of the second race



but I am not in puzzlement, I just figure the bigger bettors have better information than me
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Old 12-23-2021, 05:58 PM   #3
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Code:
	Turf Paradise*	Race 8																
EACH  HORSE 	  					FORMULA'S OVERLAY EXACTA BOARD  BET SIZES SHOWN THE TOP ROW PGNO ARE WIN HORSE												
WIN PROBABILITY	pgno	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	LINE SUM 
6%	1	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
2%	2	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
7%	3	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	4	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
2%	5	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
3%	6	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
14%	7	----	----	$12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	12
33%	8	$28	----	$34	----	$11	$16	$73	----	----	$79	----	----	----	----	----	----	241
17%	9	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
16%	10	----	----	$13	----	----	----	$27	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	40
0%	11	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	16	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
100%	292	28	0	59	0	11	16	99	0	0	79	0	0	0	0	0	0	292.49
		 	FAV 	2ND FAV	3RD FAV	winning	TRACK PAYOUT	TRACK PAYOUT		WINING  	NORMALIZED*	$1 WIN RETURN 		NORMALIZED*  	% OF EXACT 		REQUIRED MIN $1	
TRACK		 	PGNO	PGNO	PGNO	EXACAT COMBINATION	$1 win return	$1 exacta return	TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL	EXACTA RETURN	 EXACTA $1 RETURN	USING SUM OF COLUMNS AS BET SIZE		WIN $1 RETURN	POOL  PLAYED		EXACTA  RETURN	
Turf Paradise*	 	Race 8	8	9	10	 	 	 	$292.49	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00		$0.00	29%		$3.42	
						INPUT	INPUT	INPUT		CALCULATE		CALCULATE					 	
											NORMALIZED: EACH BET SIZED  SUMMED BY ITS TOTAL	 						
	0  0				FORMULA'S UNDERLAY EXACTA BOARD  BET SIZES SHOWN. TOP ROW PGNO IS THE PLACE HORSE, THE COLUMN THE WIN HORSE													
	pgno	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	LINE SUM
	1	----	$1	----	----	$1	$2	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	4
	2	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	3	$4	$1	----	----	$2	$2	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	9
	4	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	5	----	$0	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	6	----	$1	----	----	$1	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	1
	7	$9	$3	----	----	$4	$5	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	22
	8	----	$10	----	----	----	----	----	----	$84	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	94
	9	$11	$4	$14	----	$4	$7	$29	----	----	$32	----	----	----	----	----	----	100
	10	$10	$4	----	----	$4	$6	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	24
	11	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	16	----	----	----	----	----	----	$0	$0	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	254	35	24	14	0	15	22	29	0	84	32	0	0	0	0	0	0	254.48
		 	FAV 	2ND FAV	3RD FAV	winning	TRACK PAYOUT	TRACK PAYOUT		WINING  	NORMALIZED*	$1 WIN RETURN 		NORMALIZED*  	% OF EXACT 		REQUIRED MIN $1	
TRACK		 	PGNO	PGNO	PGNO	EXACAT COMBINATION	$1 win return	$1 exacta return	TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL	EXACTA RETURN	 EXACTA $1 RETURN	USING SUM OFLINE SUM AS BET SIZE		WIN $1 RETURN	POOL  PLAYED		EXACTA  RETURN	
Turf Paradise* Race 8	 	Race 8	8	9	10	 	 	 	$254.48	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	#VALUE!		#VALUE!	71%		$1.41
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Old 12-23-2021, 08:36 PM   #4
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this was a winner

underlay excata 1/10 returned $2.03 on the dollar where the required minimum was $1.22

also the fav #1 had a win bet size of $241 returning $530

this was a winner, exceeding the losses on the previous posted race when nither overlay, underlay or fav won.

underlay excata 1/10 returned $2.03 on the dollar where the required minimum was $1.22

also the fav #1 had a win bet size of $241 returning $530

Attached Images
File Type: jpg turf p r5.jpg (388.9 KB, 2 views)
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Last edited by formula_2002; 12-23-2021 at 08:42 PM.
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Old 12-24-2021, 09:46 AM   #5
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Code:
	SA Fairview*	Race 8																		
EACH  HORSE 	  					FORMULA'S OVERLAY EXACTA BOARD  BET SIZES SHOWN THE TOP ROW PGNO ARE WIN HORSE													track  	
WIN PROBABILITY	pgno	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	LINE SUM 	WIN ODDS	pgno
13%	1	----	----	----	$6	----	----	----	----	$4	----	----	$8	----	----	----	----	18	6.48	1
18%	2	----	----	----	$9	----	----	----	$13	----	$15	$15	$12	$16	----	----	----	80	4.56	2
14%	3	----	----	----	$6	$15	----	----	$9	----	$11	----	$9	$12	----	----	----	62	6.29	3
4%	4	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	$3	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	3	23.51	4
10%	5	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	$6	----	$7	$7	$6	$8	----	----	----	35	9.33	5
0%	6	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0	----	6
6%	7	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	$4	----	----	----	----	4	14.41	7
6%	8	----	----	----	$3	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	$3	----	----	----	----	6	15.75	8
2%	9	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0	39.67	9
7%	10	----	----	----	$3	----	----	----	$4	$2	----	----	$4	----	----	----	----	13	13.98	10
7%	11	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	$4	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	4	13.71	11
5%	12	----	----	$8	$2	----	----	----	----	$1	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	12	17.52	12
7%	13	----	----	$11	$3	----	----	$5	$5	$2	$5	----	$4	----	----	----	----	36	12.59	13
0%	14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0	----	14
0%	15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0	----	15
0%	16	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0	----	16
100%	272	0	0	19	33	15	0	5	45	9	38	22	50	36	0	0	0	271.51		
		 	FAV 	2ND FAV	3RD FAV	winning	TRACK PAYOUT	TRACK PAYOUT		WINING  	NORMALIZED*	$1 WIN RETURN 		NORMALIZED*  	% OF EXACT 		REQUIRED MIN $1		% OF WIN POOL	
TRACK		 	PGNO	PGNO	PGNO	EXACAT COMBINATION	$1 win return	$1 exacta return	TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL	EXACTA RETURN	 EXACTA $1 RETURN	USING SUM OF COLUMNS AS BET SIZE		WIN $1 RETURN	POOL  PLAYED		EXACTA  RETURN		PLAYED	
SA Fairview*	 	Race 8	2	3	1	 	 	 	$271.51	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00		$0.00	27%		$3.68		27%	
						INPUT	INPUT	INPUT		CALCULATE		CALCULATE					 			
											NORMALIZED: EACH BET SIZED  SUMMED BY ITS TOTAL	 								
	0.177241176364615  0.0243507021582016				FORMULA'S UNDERLAY EXACTA BOARD  BET SIZES SHOWN. TOP ROW PGNO IS THE PLACE HORSE, THE COLUMN THE WIN HORSE															
	pgno	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	LINE SUM		1
	1	----	----	----	----	$15	----	$10	$9	----	$10	$10	----	$11	----	----	----	66		1
	2	$29	----	$30	----	$21	----	$14	----	$5	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	100		1
	3	$21	----	----	----	----	----	$10	----	$4	----	$11	----	----	----	----	----	46		1
	4	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	$1	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	1		1
	5	----	----	----	$4	----	----	$7	----	$3	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	14		1
	6	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0		1
	7	----	----	----	$3	----	----	----	$4	$2	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	9		1
	8	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	$2	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	2		1
	9	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0		1
	10	----	----	----	----	----	----	$5	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	5		1
	11	----	----	----	$3	----	----	$5	----	$2	$5	----	$4	----	----	----	----	18		1
	12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0		1
	13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	$5	----	----	----	----	----	5		1
	14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0		1
	15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0		1
	16	----	----	----	----	----	----	$0	$0	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0		1
	267	51	0	30	10	36	0	51	13	18	15	27	4	11	0	0	0	266.54	$1 EX	$1
		 	FAV 	2ND FAV	3RD FAV	winning	TRACK PAYOUT	TRACK PAYOUT		WINING  	NORMALIZED*	$1 WIN RETURN 		NORMALIZED*  	% OF EXACT 		REQUIRED MIN $1		% OF WIN POOL	
TRACK		 	PGNO	PGNO	PGNO	EXACAT COMBINATION	$1 win return	$1 exacta return	TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL	EXACTA RETURN	 EXACTA $1 RETURN	USING SUM OFLINE SUM AS BET SIZE		WIN $1 RETURN	POOL  PLAYED		EXACTA  RETURN		PLAYED	
SA Fairview* Race 8	 	Race 8	2	3	1	 	 	 	$266.54	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	#VALUE!		#VALUE!	27%		$3.75		0%
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Old 12-24-2021, 10:41 AM   #6
formula_2002
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here is a better view of the race's winning underlay exacta board.
results are good, but i did find a clinker in the works.
the % of pools were not previously applied corectly..
the bet sizes on the favorite may be more promissing.

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File Type: gif sa fair r8 underlay board.GIF (247.4 KB, 8 views)
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Old 12-31-2021, 09:01 AM   #7
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just my personal opinion or preference - but anyway

I much prefer betting exactas when there is a cold fave going off at around 5/2

payouts should be pretty decent even if the fave is involved



for me - betting an exacta when the fave is 3/5 is out of the question

yes, if he's out the payoff will be nice - but so often he's in 1st or 2nd

and yes, if he comes with a shot it could be halfway decent too



but if he comes over the 2nd or 3rd fave or underneath one of them

forget about it



you're going to make a sour face when you see the payout


.
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