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Old 12-16-2021, 02:48 PM   #1
formula_2002
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FORMULA'S OVERLAY EXACTA POOL

Its a bit of a stretch, but hopefully the Its self-explanatory


the data is from yesterdays 7th race at Gulfstream

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Old 12-17-2021, 04:39 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Its a bit of a stretch, but hopefully the Its self-explanatory


the data is from yesterdays 7th race at Gulfstream


how did you choose to make these bets and these bet sizes?

why play the 5 and 6 over the 8 instead of over the 1 or 2 for example?

what is so special about the #8 horse?

why no action at all on the #1 horse?

why didn't you play the 5 and 6 over the 7?

why didn't you play the fave underneath?

and why do you show bets in pennies

as far as I know you can't make bets in pennies


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Last edited by Half Smoke; 12-17-2021 at 04:46 PM.
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Old 12-18-2021, 12:09 AM   #3
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how did you choose to make these bets and these bet sizes?

why play the 5 and 6 over the 8 instead of over the 1 or 2 for example?
]

what is so special about the #8 horse?

why no action at all on the #1 horse?

why didn't you play the 5 and 6 over the 7?

why didn't you play the fave underneath?

to all of the above.
looking for overlays in the exacta pool based on the the expected fair value compared to the actual value. look at the yellow area to the upper right.
it calculates those values based on the win and excata pools

this play ( and not all) picked a nice overlay, the fair value was calculated to be $11.72 on the dollar it returnd $13.01 on the dollar



and why do you show bets in pennies

as far as I know you can't make bets in pennies
its just a book keeping thing. you can move all the decimal points to where you are comfortable. 0.20 could become 20.00
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Last edited by formula_2002; 12-18-2021 at 12:10 AM.
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Old 12-18-2021, 04:23 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
how did you choose to make these bets and these bet sizes?

why play the 5 and 6 over the 8 instead of over the 1 or 2 for example?
]

what is so special about the #8 horse?

why no action at all on the #1 horse?

why didn't you play the 5 and 6 over the 7?

why didn't you play the fave underneath?

to all of the above.
looking for overlays in the exacta pool based on the the expected fair value compared to the actual value. look at the yellow area to the upper right.
it calculates those values based on the win and excata pools

this play ( and not all) picked a nice overlay, the fair value was calculated to be $11.72 on the dollar it returnd $13.01 on the dollar



and why do you show bets in pennies

as far as I know you can't make bets in pennies
its just a book keeping thing. you can move all the decimal points to where you are comfortable. 0.20 could become 20.00

okay, thanks for the answer - I pretty much presumed that but wanted to make sure

but isn't the info that you can get from the tote or from your ADW on exacta probables often wrong and many times very wrong because of late betting - too late to make calculations?


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Old 12-18-2021, 06:55 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
okay, thanks for the answer - I pretty much presumed that but wanted to make sure

but isn't the info that you can get from the tote or from your ADW on exacta probables often wrong and many times very wrong because of late betting - too late to make calculations?


.
It's not really wrong, it's current for its time, but it does have an impact, good or bad, on the final results. regardless, it's a work in progress
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Old 12-23-2021, 10:22 AM   #6
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Is a puzzlement!
There are times, perhaps in the range of 60% to 70 % of the time, my overlay exacta board does not produce a winning combination.

When those overlay combinations are excluded from my underlay exacta board, the underlay wins perhaps in the range of 60% to 70%. While the one winning singular combination is an underlay it returns a value that exceeds the probability of the entire underlay exacta board

For example, yesterday's Gulfstream 7th race, my overlay exacta board covered 18% of the pool.

The underlay exacta board covered the remain 82%.

A 82% play requires a $1 return of 1/.82 = $1.22
The winning combination of the 5 and 6 horse was a 50% underlay, yet it returned $2.20 on the dollar..
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Last edited by formula_2002; 12-23-2021 at 10:25 AM.
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Old 12-23-2021, 11:14 AM   #7
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HERE MY TWO EXACTA BOARDS, AN OVERLAY AND UNDERLAY EXACTA FOR TODAYS 3RD RACE AT SA VAAL

THE SHORT DESCRIPTION:
UNDERLAY EXACTA BOARD USED 88% OF THE EXACTA PROBABILITIES, REQUIRING A MIN $1 RETURN OF $1.14, THE 5/14 EXACTA RETURNED $1.63, WHILE A SINGULAR BET OF THE 5/14 PRODUCED A 67% UNDERLAY.

WHAT I AM NOTICING, A WIN BET ON THE FAVORITE USING THE SUM OF ITS LINE BETS MAY OUT PERFORM A STRAIGHT WIN BET ON THE FAVORITE

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Last edited by formula_2002; 12-23-2021 at 11:26 AM.
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Old 12-23-2021, 06:17 PM   #8
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Code:
	Turfway Park*	Race 1																
EACH  HORSE 	  					FORMULA'S OVERLAY EXACTA BOARD  BET SIZES SHOWN THE TOP ROW PGNO ARE WIN HORSE												
WIN PROBABILITY	pgno	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	LINE SUM 
14%	1	----	----	----	----	----	$21	$8	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	29
9%	2	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
14%	3	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
25%	4	----	----	$46	----	----	$43	$17	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	106
20%	5	----	----	$35	----	----	$32	$13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	79
13%	6	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
5%	7	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	8	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	9	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	10	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	11	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
0%	16	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
100%	214	0	0	81	0	0	95	38	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	214.25
		 	FAV 	2ND FAV	3RD FAV	winning	TRACK PAYOUT	TRACK PAYOUT		WINING  	NORMALIZED*	$1 WIN RETURN 		NORMALIZED*  	% OF EXACT 		REQUIRED MIN $1	
TRACK		 	PGNO	PGNO	PGNO	EXACAT COMBINATION	$1 win return	$1 exacta return	TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL	EXACTA RETURN	 EXACTA $1 RETURN	USING SUM OF COLUMNS AS BET SIZE		WIN $1 RETURN	POOL  PLAYED		EXACTA  RETURN	
Turfway Park*	 	Race 1	4	5	3	 	 	 	$214.25	$0.00	$0.00	$0.00		$0.00	21%		$4.67	
						INPUT	INPUT	INPUT		CALCULATE		CALCULATE					 	
											NORMALIZED: EACH BET SIZED  SUMMED BY ITS TOTAL	 						
	0  0				FORMULA'S UNDERLAY EXACTA BOARD  BET SIZES SHOWN. TOP ROW PGNO IS THE PLACE HORSE, THE COLUMN THE WIN HORSE													
	pgno	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	LINE SUM
	1	----	$15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	15
	2	----	----	----	----	----	----	$5	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	5
	3	$23	$15	----	----	----	$21	$8	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	67
	4	$46	$31	----	----	$65	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	143
	5	$34	$23	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	57
	6	----	$14	----	----	----	----	$8	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	22
	7	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	8	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	9	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	10	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	11	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	12	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	13	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	14	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	15	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	16	----	----	----	----	----	----	$0	$0	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	----	0
	309	103	99	0	0	65	21	21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	309.44
		 	FAV 	2ND FAV	3RD FAV	winning	TRACK PAYOUT	TRACK PAYOUT		WINING  	NORMALIZED*	$1 WIN RETURN 		NORMALIZED*  	% OF EXACT 		REQUIRED MIN $1	
TRACK		 	PGNO	PGNO	PGNO	EXACAT COMBINATION	$1 win return	$1 exacta return	TOTAL $ BET IN EXACTA POOL	EXACTA RETURN	 EXACTA $1 RETURN	USING SUM OFLINE SUM AS BET SIZE		WIN $1 RETURN	POOL  PLAYED		EXACTA  RETURN	
Turfway Park* Race 1	 	Race 1	4	5	3	 	 	 	$309.44	#VALUE!	#VALUE!	#VALUE!		#VALUE!	79%		$1.27
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