Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 10-16-2018, 08:39 AM   #1
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Paulick on Figure Makers

Each day this week the Paulick Report will feature a review of the different figure makers. First up are the Beyers.

https://www.paulickreport.com/horsep...-beyer-method/
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 11:12 AM   #2
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
I was interviewed for this, hopefully I'm one of the days.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 12:43 PM   #3
Exotic1
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,084
Timeform

https://www.paulickreport.com/horsep...into-the-race/
Exotic1 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 12:58 PM   #4
ReplayRandall
Buckle Up
 
ReplayRandall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exotic1 View Post
Key CJ quote:

Q:What's the most common trap figure makers fall into, according to Milkowski?

A:“I think the most common is we underestimate how much winners improve when they win races,” he said. “Most people are using a projection method or a par or something like that. But so many horses — I think this is quoting the Beyer study from a long time ago — I think they found the average winner improved more than 10 points over their previous figures. When horses win, they're usually improving and often by a lot and the younger the horse the more that's true.

Possible improved timing upgrade:

In the last week, it should be noted, three North American tracks officially installed a British company's GPS-based timing system. Woodbine, Laurel Park and Pimlico have been testing Total Performance Data for several months and the feedback Milkowski has gotten about it has been positive. The tracks seem to like it.
ReplayRandall is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 01:12 PM   #5
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by Exotic1 View Post
Cj, looks like you got a good and fair write-up. I learned something new about your methodology from your interview. I had noticed that sometimes you project a better figure for the horses in their spotlight figure - even better than their best representative figure, especially with young lightly raced horses. I seem to remember that one of the things Quinn's research found that the typical winner improves about 10 points over their last figure. This is doubly important with 2nd time starters, like my friend Cheerleadin' Cupcake. Remember her? Gotta love that filly.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 01:22 PM   #6
Suff
Beat up 💪
 
Suff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Beach life in Fort Lauderdale
Posts: 11,938
Data Scientists

This is related but unrelated... I saw it last week and it got me thinking about people like Beyer, CJ, others, that were pioneers in horse racing data.

Horseplayers that were digging into data long before digging into data was the big money it is today. Lotus 123 days and up...

If they were all born into today's age, 150K is out there

Landing a 150k USD #datascientist job: Seven things you need to know


2) Working with large and high volume and often real time datasets: If you see the uber tech stack and the problems it is designed to handle, the volume and velocity of data implies that you need to rethink many aspects of the stack. The experience of working with large data volumes and real time datasets will be valuable
Suff is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 01:26 PM   #7
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Each day this week the Paulick Report will feature a review of the different figure makers. First up are the Beyers.

https://www.paulickreport.com/horsep...-beyer-method/
Something that you might want to consider.
So, who has more credibility when it comes to basic handicapping?
The “Figure” makers or someone who has actually proven himself in the betting arena?
It’s your decision (and your money).

Figure Makers: An Open Mind Rules The Beyer Method
Quote:
“Our figures do not purport to tell everything about a horse. They really only tell one thing which is the most important thing in the game and that is how fast the horse ran,” said Beyer. “
Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburg Phil-- by Edward Cole (1908) (Excerpts from)
Quote:
CHAPTER 5 -- Handicapping by Time
Quite a number of systematic handicappers take time as a basis for their calculations. I could never see where time was a positive criterion. Time enters into the argument under certain conditions, but if depended upon entirely for a deduction it will be found wanting. The atmospheric conditions will have much to do with the time of a race. The way a race is run will have much to do with the time of such race

Returning to the fallacy of time as a criterion of what horses should do and should not do, there are horses that have created records on many occasions that have never lived up to their record afterward or anywhere near it.

Again, the wind may be playing head on. It would make the time of the race very slow, for the resistance of the wind is very great in a horse race, and it is correspondingly great when acting as a propeller. There are no race going folks who can determine the velocity of the wind. Similar results follow, probably not so decided, on a circular course as on a straight stretch, for the wind sometimes blows across the track, sometimes aids the horses on the back stretch or may be against them coming home. Again, it may be against them on the back stretch and aid them coming home; and a horse can run faster against the wind in the early stages of the race than he can when he becomes leg weary in the last quarter of a mile.

Then there is the sultry day with a great deal of humidity, and the hot bright day when the atmosphere is dry. All these things have an effect on the time of the race, and in fact on the condition of a horse. It is a common saying that such and such a horse is a hot weather horse, and that others will be better in the hot weather. Weather affects them as it does persons. It is almost unnecessary to go further into the details on the question of time as a handicapping basis, for I have given enough illustrations of the uncertainty of making time the foundation or basic calculation in handicapping. Horse against horse, weight against weight and accompanying conditions are the best lines to follow as to the superiority of one horse over another.


Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 01:38 PM   #8
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
Something that you might want to consider.
So, who has more credibility when it comes to basic handicapping?
The “Figure” makers or someone who has actually proven himself in the betting arena?
It’s your decision (and your money).

Figure Makers: An Open Mind Rules The Beyer Method


Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburg Phil-- by Edward Cole (1908) (Excerpts from)
Pittsburgh Phil was referring to an era before accurate electronic timing or video replays to be used in pace analysis or track variants of any kind. Old Phill knew nothing of the technology available to modern figure makers and handicappers.
To compare handicapping methods of such different eras is absurd.

Last edited by bobphilo; 10-16-2018 at 01:43 PM.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 02:52 PM   #9
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobphilo View Post
Pittsburgh Phil was referring to an era before accurate electronic timing or video replays to be used in pace analysis or track variants of any kind. Old Phill knew nothing of the technology available to modern figure makers and handicappers.
To compare handicapping methods of such different eras is absurd.
No, actually what’s absurd is anyone one believing that the use of our so-called modern measuring technology is capable of considering all of the real-world environmental effects (pointed out by Pittsburg Phil) on any given horse’s condition before, during and after a racing event. These thoroughbreds don’t run in a vacuum.

One might also want to consider who was more successful using their handicapping methodology and approach to the game.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 03:10 PM   #10
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,446
Not if of one wants good figures.
The two are not always found in the same person.
I don't use CJ's figs the same way he uses them.
Same for Beyer.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 04:16 PM   #11
castaway01
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
No, actually what’s absurd is anyone one believing that the use of our so-called modern measuring technology is capable of considering all of the real-world environmental effects (pointed out by Pittsburg Phil) on any given horse’s condition before, during and after a racing event. These thoroughbreds don’t run in a vacuum.

One might also want to consider who was more successful using their handicapping methodology and approach to the game.
Yes, your quotes from a 109-year-old book prove that no one has come up with any ideas since then that could possibly overcome any of the limitations "Pittsburgh Phil" mentioned.
castaway01 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 04:30 PM   #12
Jeff P
Registered User
 
Jeff P's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,257
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
Something that you might want to consider.
So, who has more credibility when it comes to basic handicapping?
The “Figure” makers or someone who has actually proven himself in the betting arena?...
And:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
No, actually what’s absurd is anyone one believing that the use of our so-called modern measuring technology is capable of considering all of the real-world environmental effects (pointed out by Pittsburg Phil) on any given horse’s condition before, during and after a racing event. These thoroughbreds don’t run in a vacuum.

One might also want to consider who was more successful using their handicapping methodology and approach to the game.
A few days ago, in post number 82 in one of the Handicapping Library threads, you posted a link to a PDF written by Bill Benter.

As a result I reread the PDF in its entirety.

I've probably read that paper at least 20 times over the years.

Every time I read it I manage to pick up a nugget - some little detail I somehow missed during all of my previous readings about the way Benter was doing things when he wrote that paper.

Why does it have to be one or the other?

Why is it ok to use Tote data but not ok to use past performance data?

It seems pretty obvious to me that Benter created a successful model.

Based on what he wrote - it seems pretty obvious that Benter used BOTH past performance data and tote data in his model.

Beginning on page 184 Benter penned a chapter on "HANDICAPPING MODEL DEVELOPMENT" and specifically mentioned a handful of factors based on past performance data that he used in his model including "normalized times of past races."

What are speed and pace figures? Are they not simply a way of expressing normalized times from past races?



-jp

.
__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com

Last edited by Jeff P; 10-16-2018 at 04:36 PM. Reason: corrected the page number from 183 to 184
Jeff P is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 05:52 PM   #13
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Look Nitro, if you don't want to use figures or PP data, good for you. But really there is no reason to try to derail the thread. Thanks in advance.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 10:38 PM   #14
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Look Nitro, if you don't want to use figures or PP data, good for you. But really there is no reason to try to derail the thread. Thanks in advance.
You mean by simply offering a different (and valid) opinion about the thread’s topic is “derailing the thread”?
I certainly don’t want to burst anyone’s bubble, but I sure wish I would have read Pittsburg Phil’s “Axioms” before Andy Beyer’s “Picking Winners”.

I’ll just respond to Jeff P’s very reasonable comments and I’ll leave this thread to those who seem enjoy talking “figures”.
Good luck!
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 10-16-2018, 10:47 PM   #15
Nitro
Registered User
 
Nitro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,945
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P View Post
And:

A few days ago, in post number 82 in one of the Handicapping Library threads, you posted a link to a PDF written by Bill Benter.

As a result I reread the PDF in its entirety.

I've probably read that paper at least 20 times over the years.

Every time I read it I manage to pick up a nugget - some little detail I somehow missed during all of my previous readings about the way Benter was doing things when he wrote that paper.

Why does it have to be one or the other?

Why is it ok to use Tote data but not ok to use past performance data?

It seems pretty obvious to me that Benter created a successful model.

Based on what he wrote - it seems pretty obvious that Benter used BOTH past performance data and tote data in his model.

Beginning on page 184 Benter penned a chapter on "HANDICAPPING MODEL DEVELOPMENT" and specifically mentioned a handful of factors based on past performance data that he used in his model including "normalized times of past races."

What are speed and pace figures? Are they not simply a way of expressing normalized times from past races?

-jp

.
Regarding Benter’s paper I too have read it many times over. I even went so far as to post it on PA and high-lighted many items that I believed were for serious consideration. I’m not sure if many realize this, but Bill B. had no background in horses or handicapping them whatsoever. (Anyone can read about his background and eventual involvement with horseracing in Hong Kong by reviewing his recent published interview) He of course developed an extremely detailed program which according to what I read ultimately used over 130 race data variables. He certainly did not exclusively rely on Speed figures (which is what this thread is all about) in his model. Yet, he admittedly claims that without incorporating the tote data his overall profit margin would have been comparatively reduced. He also stated the following:
Quote:
It can be presumed that valid fundamental information exists which can not be systematically or practically incorporated into a statistical model. Therefore, any statistical model, however well developed, will always be incomplete.
An extremely important step in model development, and one that the author believes has been generally overlooked in the literature, is the estimation of the relation of the model's probability estimates to the public's estimates, and the adjustment of the model's estimates to incorporate whatever information can be gleaned from the public's estimates.
From my personal perspective “it is ok to use Tote data, but not ok to use past performance data” for the following reasons:
A) PP data is limited to providing dated factual data about a horse’s performance at specific race conditions while competing against a limited number of entrants.
B) Any detailed analysis of PP data (be it Speed figures or otherwise) is open for subjective interpretation which inevitably results in a variety of deductions.
C) No conclusions can be drawn from the PP’s about a horse’s current mental or physical condition.
D) The interpretations of the PP’s can very often lead to over bet and under-valued selections because critical assumptions are made about a horse’s competitive nature.
E) A detailed review and final interpretation of analyzed PP’s can become cumbersome, tedious and time consuming.

I won’t bore you with my feelings about the tote analysis because I’ve stated it many times before. I will say that I’ve tried both methodologies simultaneously and it became counter-productive.

Here are a few Excerpts (as related to tote information) from:
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems:” Bill Benter.
A)
Quote:
Certain authors have convincingly demonstrated that profitable wagering systems do exist for the races. The most well documented of these have generally been of the technical variety, that is, they are concerned mainly with the public odds, and do not attempt to predict horse performance from fundamental factors.
B)
Quote:
There will always be a significant amount of 'inside information' in horse racing that cannot be readily included in a statistical model. Trainer's and jockey's intentions, secret workouts, whether the horse ate its breakfast, and the like, will be available to certain parties who will no doubt take advantage of it. Their betting will be reflected in the odds.
Nitro is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:40 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.