Distance capability

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If a horse shows that it can handle a mile and a sixteenth, then it deserves the benefit of the doubt at a mile and an eighth...in my opinion. My money...my rules.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I have a hard time predicting when a sprinter will successfully stretch out...or when a router will successfully shorten up. Nothing that I've ever used to remedy the situation has worked to my satisfaction. Even when routers show sharp speed in their races, they flop when they are entered in sprints...especially when I bet them.

I bet these stretch outs and turn backs because I believe the trainer knows what he is doing. Now, Do I check the trainer's stats on these types of distance changes? You bet your.....you know....
If the trainer win pct is middling or lower, I dismiss the entrant and move on.
Sometimes I get scorched on these. Oh well. Can't win 'em all.
IMO Betting horses is like playing golf.....Enjoy the great shots and limit my disasters.

[speculus]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The next time I meet a horseplayer who says that he can reliably assess a horse's distance capabilities...I am going to pinch him to make sure he is real.

It is possible to predict the optimum trip distance for a racehorse, and classify it as a sprinter/middle distance/stayer horse with a fair amount of accuracy.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8P...ew?usp=sharing

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by speculus

It is possible to predict the optimum trip distance for a racehorse, and classify it as a sprinter/middle distance/stayer horse with a fair amount of accuracy.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8P...ew?usp=sharing

Speculus its been a long time since I read one of your posts, but this one is very timely and it is amazing to me when posters who have limited math, science, or statistical ability make the most noise about what cannot be quantified or predicted.

Again, thanks for posting such timely insight on race distance projections and it will not change the nay sayers, but so what?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Speculus its been a long time since I read one of your posts, but this one is very timely and it is amazing to me when posters who have limited math, science, or statistical ability make the most noise about what cannot be quantified or predicted.

Again, thanks for posting such timely insight on race distance projections and it will not change the nay sayers, but so what?

Since when is a person who is just relaying his own experiences considered a "naysayer"? And how exactly am I supposed to be "changed" by Speculus's timely contribution to our discussion?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Speculus its been a long time since I read one of your posts, but this one is very timely and it is amazing to me when posters who have limited math, science, or statistical ability make the most noise about what cannot be quantified or predicted.

Again, thanks for posting such timely insight on race distance projections and it will not change the nay sayers, but so what?

And another thing:

Yes...I have openly admitted that math is a considerable shortcoming of mine...but I am working on correcting that weakness in my game. I have recently bought a best-selling math tutorial, and I am eagerly devouring it as we speak. And I don't mind saying that my game has already improved dramatically as a result.

http://www.amazon.com/Math-Doesnt-Su...anica+mckellar