Distance capability

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

A great deal had been written about distance capability ( the ability to handle todays distance). Some say that a 3 year old and up horse should have a win at todays distance to have a percentage advantage ( provided the other pertinent factors are present) depending on your own handicapping truths.

Frank Romano was a successful player from the left coast who insisted on a win at todays distance in order to make his standard $2,000 win bets. Other successful players argue that proven distance capability is more important then the class factor in handicapping.

I am not here to argue or discuss the different subjective handicapping theory's , just to find any opinions on how you handle the distance factor when attempting to gain a high percentage expectation realistic value win wager. More or less a horse that would be a single in a pick 3 or 4 etc. A very solid key horse that could be used with confidence and it's relationship to the distance capability factor.

Thanks in advance for any reply's.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

A great deal had been written about distance capability ( the ability to handle todays distance). Some say that a 3 year old and up horse should have a win at todays distance to have a percentage advantage ( provided the other pertinent factors are present) depending on your own handicapping truths.

Frank Romano was a successful player from the left coast who insisted on a win at todays distance in order to make his standard $2,000 win bets. Other successful players argue that proven distance capability is more important then the class factor in handicapping.

I am not here to argue or discuss the different subjective handicapping theory's , just to find any opinions on how you handle the distance factor when attempting to gain a high percentage expectation realistic value win wager. More or less a horse that would be a single in a pick 3 or 4 etc. A very solid key horse that could be used with confidence and it's relationship to the distance capability factor.

Thanks in advance for any reply's.

I think a victory at today's distance is too strict a requirement. What if the horse shows a narrow loss at today's distance...or a good effort while registering an impressive speed figure? Isn't that adequate proof that the horse can "handle the distance"?

I also find argument with the notion that the horse must show proof of handling the "exact" distance of today's race. I haven't noticed an appreciable difference between 6 and 6.5 furlongs...nor do I think there is a noticeable difference between a mile and a sixteenth, and a mile and an eight.

[Stillriledup]

I agree with Gus, the key for the elite horseplayer is to be "on" a horse BEFORE he shows he can win at the distance......once a horse shows it, everyone is in on it and you get less value. A lot of my largest plays are specifically designed around young horses who haven't yet stretched out but thru video analysis, looking at the breeding and the connections, analyzing the situation, you can make a good guess as to which horses were prepped in sprints and now they're stretching out to the race they were essentially pointing for.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I think a victory at today's distance is too strict a requirement. What if the horse shows a narrow loss at today's distance...or a good effort while registering an impressive speed figure? Isn't that adequate proof that the horse can "handle the distance"?

I also find argument with the notion that the horse must show proof of handling the "exact" distance of today's race. I haven't noticed an appreciable difference between 6 and 6.5 furlongs...nor do I think there is a noticeable difference between a mile and a sixteenth, and a mile and an eight.

Don't agree on the 1 1/16 vs. 1 1/8, but I have no hard evidence to support my position. Perhaps a database player can chime in on the matter.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Don't agree on the 1 1/16 vs. 1 1/8, but I have no hard evidence to support my position. Perhaps a database player can chime in on the matter.

If a horse shows that it can handle a mile and a sixteenth, then it deserves the benefit of the doubt at a mile and an eighth...in my opinion. My money...my rules.

[Overlay]

I don't use the distance factor as an elimination criterion in any race, but I tend to look less favorably on horses that are "shortening up" today (especially if they have shown no signs of early foot at longer distances), as opposed to "stretching out".

My main means of incorporating distance are in my evaluation of early speed, and in the assignment of different weights to a horse's ranking against its competition with respect to the handicapping characteristics that I use to develop each horse's probability of winning, depending in part on the distance at which today's race is being run.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

A great deal had been written about distance capability ( the ability to handle todays distance). Some say that a 3 year old and up horse should have a win at todays distance to have a percentage advantage ( provided the other pertinent factors are present) depending on your own handicapping truths.

Frank Romano was a successful player from the left coast who insisted on a win at todays distance in order to make his standard $2,000 win bets...

I recall meeting a Frank Romano years ago, he was a big man who apparently unknown to me at the time also made frequent big bets ($1000 or more). I remember him being a very nice, personable and helpful handicapper.

When you say was, is he no longer wagering?

Did he write a book?

Thanks in advance for any info.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I recall meeting a Frank Romano years ago, he was a big man who apparently unknown to me at the time also made frequent big bets ($1000 or more). I remember him being a very nice, personable and helpful handicapper.

When you say was, is he no longer wagering?

Did he write a book?

Thanks in advance for any info.

Romano was one of the handicappers featured in James Quinn's book THE NEW EXPERT HANDICAPPERS. That book was single-handedly responsible for driving all the major book publishers out of the business of publishing horse handicapping material.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Romano was one of the handicappers featured in James Quinn's book THE NEW EXPERT HANDICAPPERS. That book was single-handedly responsible for driving all the major book publishers out of the business of publishing horse handicapping material.

I really don't understand your post but, I never read Quinn's book either. Actually, I never heard of it. Quinn has been a prolific writer over the years and knows his shit.

Is this a new one?

[Cratos]

[QUOTE=BELMONT 6-6-09]A great deal had been written about distance capability ( the ability to handle todays distance). Some say that a 3 year old and up horse should have a win at todays distance to have a percentage advantage ( provided the other pertinent factors are present) depending on your own handicapping truths.

Frank Romano was a successful player from the left coast who insisted on a win at todays distance in order to make his standard $2,000 win bets. Other successful players argue that proven distance capability is more important then the class factor in handicapping.

I am not here to argue or discuss the different subjective handicapping theory's , just to find any opinions on how you handle the distance factor when attempting to gain a high percentage expectation realistic value win wager. More or less a horse that would be a single in a pick 3 or 4 etc. A very solid key horse that could be used with confidence and it's relationship to the distance capability factor.

Thanks in advance for any reply's.[/QUOTE

I am a conformist to parametric handicapping and I always look for the "parent-child" relationship in the handicapping of racehorses.

In the case of distance, this relationship is that distance is the child of stamina and stamina is the child of energy.

In horseracing energy can be measured in MJoules and from that measurement, the horse's distance capability can be derived.

This is a nontrivial calculation and should be done using statistical modelling.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I really don't understand your post but, I never read Quinn's book either. Actually, I never heard of it. Quinn has been a prolific writer over the years and knows his shit.

Is this a new one?

http://www.amazon.com/New-Expert-Han...t+handicappers

[Saratoga_Mike]

[QUOTE=Cratos]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

A great deal had been written about distance capability ( the ability to handle todays distance). Some say that a 3 year old and up horse should have a win at todays distance to have a percentage advantage ( provided the other pertinent factors are present) depending on your own handicapping truths.

Frank Romano was a successful player from the left coast who insisted on a win at todays distance in order to make his standard $2,000 win bets. Other successful players argue that proven distance capability is more important then the class factor in handicapping.

I am not here to argue or discuss the different subjective handicapping theory's , just to find any opinions on how you handle the distance factor when attempting to gain a high percentage expectation realistic value win wager. More or less a horse that would be a single in a pick 3 or 4 etc. A very solid key horse that could be used with confidence and it's relationship to the distance capability factor.

Thanks in advance for any reply's.[/QUOTE

I am a conformist to parametric handicapping and I always look for the "parent-child" relationship in the handicapping of racehorses.

In the case of distance, this relationship is that distance is the child of stamina and stamina is the child of energy.

In horseracing energy can be measured in MJoules and from that measurement, the horse's distance capability can be derived.

This is a nontrivial calculation and should be done using statistical modelling.

I love the certainty with which you speak. If you truly believe you can accurately project a horse's distance capabilities, you should open up a public training stable. You can also easily eliminate horses for races like the KY Derby. Horses are flesh and blood, not machines. As a result, "modeling," while it may offer insights, is unreliable.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

http://www.amazon.com/New-Expert-Han...t+handicappers

Right, but were you recommending or panning the book? You seem to have a strong opinion on it. If you're recommending, I'll probably order a copy.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike

Right, but were you recommending or panning the book? You seem to have a strong opinion on it. If you're recommending, I'll probably order a copy.

I wasn't recommending the book. With one or two exceptions, the "experts" that Quinn chose to include were mere hobbyists...and the advice that these experts chose to pass on to the reader were nothing that hadn't been written about many times before. All of the advice given in the book is severely dated...and this includes the advice given by Frank Romano.

You can secure a decent copy from Amazon for only a couple of dollars...but the book may not even be worth THAT much...

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I recall meeting a Frank Romano years ago, he was a big man who apparently unknown to me at the time also made frequent big bets ($1000 or more). I remember him being a very nice, personable and helpful handicapper.

When you say was, is he no longer wagering?

Did he write a book?

Thanks in advance for any info.

Frank Romano wagering flat $2,000 win bets ( one a day) wanted assurance that the selection won at the distance wagering within that wager size.
From the article: A strict conservative. he expects horses 3 up to have won at todays distance on today's surface, and is not lenient about wins at related distances. the reasoning is understandable at Romano's investment threshold. He does not care to squander two grand betting mature horses will do something today they have never done before.