Exacta play will save your rears.

[teddy]

Hello all.. not been on here in a while but its the best place to trade ideas.

OK I pulled a report on my wagering from NHPLAY for the last 10 years. 10 million buck bet at least.. only one wager was I successful.

Exactas. The whales I have known over the years bet only exactas and tri.

I lost 50k a year screwing around with bets I sucked at.


I learned my lesson and started playing only exactas witha 9% rebate. Im up 3k this month instead of losing 5k. I think I will have a winning year this year or at least feed the addiction and enjoy free entertainment. My bank accounts are skyrocketing.

Now what if I got better at it. Im going to find edges in the place position and try to figure out what I do right in exactas that make me a winner finally.


Please add anything you know about increasing edge. I still play the chalk on top. With larger wagers like $50 a with bc. I read dont ever put anything over 10 to one in the place position because its overbet...

Any other thoughts.. I think on turf races long shots are a better play.

Let my life of losing be your azz saver too. I wonder why its easier to win at exactas??? Cause you get more concentration and not rushed???

[teddy]

dirt Sprint 05624 00172 03% 09% 19% 0.59 0.63 0.63 29.8 $38.9 $147 0.25
Dirt Route 01818 00052 03% 09% 18% 0.56 0.58 0.56 29.1 $39.4 $130 0.23
Turf Sprint 01387 00039 03% 08% 16% 0.57 0.69 0.66 32.0 $40.3 $92 0.26
Turf Route 01955 00062 03% 09% 17% 0.69 0.69 0.64 31.8 $43.7 $158 0.30
Wet Sprint 01948 00058 03% 09% 18% 0.56 0.62 0.58 28.4 $37.7 $87 0.24
Wet Route 00855 00027 03% 10% 20% 0.65 0.75 0.67 26.3 $41.0 $115 0.25
Artf Sprint 00862 00029 03% 09% 19% 0.55 0.61 0.61 28.5 $32.8 $59 0.28
Artf Route 00469 00017 04% 10% 19% 0.82 0.70 0.70 28.0 $45.2 $95 0.30


Longshots to place are dismal in all areas but better on turf. So in exactas maybe nothing 10 to one or above on the ticket to place.


Hold your horses... if the 10 to one is a Computer pick then the returns skyrocket.

HTR=1 00250 00012 05% 18% 28% 0.69 1.16 0.96 17.8 $28.9 $50 0.41
HTR=2 00650 00041 06% 15% 25% 0.99 0.83 0.71 18.3 $31.5 $80 0.51


So if you find one with a great rating u can play it hard

[VigorsTheGrey]

So your “a” is typically a favorite and your “b, c” are typically over 10-1 but not real long after that...do I have that right...or are your “b, c” horses anywhere in the 3-1 to 15-1 range...?

[teddy]

Top class or the top computer selections htr1 and htr2 will move the roi way up for mid range long shots.

CLASS=1 00382 00019 05% 18% 29% 0.69 0.95 0.82 13.8 $27.6 $40
HTR=1 00183 00011 06% 22% 31% 0.81 1.30 0.95 13.2 $27.0 $42 0.51
HTR=2 00469 00035 07% 17% 28% 1.02 0.85 0.74 13.4 $27.5 $38 0.59 0.40

[teddy]

I have no system but what i feel in the race.. usually a key if its an obvious horse and maybe 2 horses on top usually. .. Im doing this to develop a better rule set than my curent non system. Improve the roi 5 percent would be nice.

[Robert Fischer]

my exactas have been pretty bad this past year.

Used 'boxing' and too many horses instead of an opinion too many times.

The main way I've been using exactas lately is to wheel a horse exactly 2nd.
Lot's of ways to bet in the win hole, but the exacta works in many races as a good 'exactly 2nd' tool.

[VigorsTheGrey]

That sounds good...10-1 to 20-1 for place hole, turf races...thank you.

[teddy]

The sole purpose of any handicapper should be to play the most efficient exactas. I believe its the only way to make a profit. And thats with a fat rebate. Its not sexy but its the only thing im close to beating the races.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by teddy

The sole purpose of any handicapper should be to play the most efficient exactas. I believe its the only way to make a profit. And thats with a fat rebate. Its not sexy but its the only thing im close to beating the races.

Lately, I have thought quite a lot about limiting my play to exactas...using the a/bc formula

My real question is how many exacta to play this way...do I limit my play to the above or branch out to say a/bcde....or b/ac, c/ab....bcde/a...what is most “efficient” here...?

[teddy]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Lately, I have thought quite a lot about limiting my play to exactas...using the a/bc formula

My real question is how many exacta to play this way...do I limit my play to the above or branch out to say a/bcde....or b/ac, c/ab....bcde/a...what is most “efficient” here...?

Well Id say the small the bet the better. Fewer wins but just as much action. My feeling is to bet large on obvvious races. Especially if I like the third or fourth choice better than the 2nd fav.

Reverse racing styles is touted by brisnet. They are pretty smart so i think its worth following. They are also the ones that say nothing above 10 to one for the place hole Which tested out on my software. Except in the rare cases where the longshot has positives the public missed

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by teddy

Well Id say the small the bet the better. Fewer wins but just as much action. My feeling is to bet large on obvvious races. Especially if I like the third or fourth choice better than the 2nd fav.

Reverse racing styles is touted by brisnet. They are pretty smart so i think its worth following. They are also the ones that say nothing above 10 to one for the place hole Which tested out on my software. Except in the rare cases where the longshot has positives the public missed

I think it is ok to play the favorite on top so long as it is the horse that you like and not “just because it is the favorite”...some would disagree but, for my own sanity, I prefer to back my own choice rather than the publics’, per se...even though the public may be right more often...

So what you are saying is, that it is probably better to use a LESS THAN 10-1 in the place hole, assuming one doesn’t like the second or third choices...? Anything longer and the efficiency goes way down...? Except for turf races....?

[teddy]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

I think it is ok to play the favorite on top so long as it is the horse that you like and not “just because it is the favorite”...some would disagree but, for my own sanity, I prefer to back my own choice rather than the publics’, per se...even though the public may be right more often...

So what you are saying is, that it is probably better to use a LESS THAN 10-1 in the place hole, assuming one doesn’t like the second or third choices...? Anything longer and the efficiency goes way down...? Except for turf races....?

The book says if you bet over 10 to one in the place hole it better have something your really like... top class number or top performance or connections or maybe trainer roi.... who knows.. but that is the only reason to bet over 10 to one. In the place hole.... in the win hole it will blow up your exacta . Look at the screen shots in previous post... it has a horrible place roi unless its top class or one of the 2 top software pics. .. Both rare cases.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by teddy

The book says if you bet over 10 to one in the place hole it better have something your really like... top class number or top performance or connections or maybe trainer roi.... who knows.. but that is the only reason to bet over 10 to one. In the place hole.... in the win hole it will blow up your exacta . Look at the screen shots in previous post... it has a horrible place roi unless its top class or one of the 2 top software pics. .. Both rare cases.

There are no titles to the columns so i do not know what the numbers represent, can you explain them...

[teddy]

Originally Posted by teddy

dirt Sprint 05624 00172 03% 09% 19% 0.59 0.63 0.63 29.8 $38.9 $147 0.25
Dirt Route 01818 00052 03% 09% 18% 0.56 0.58 0.56 29.1 $39.4 $130 0.23
Turf Sprint 01387 00039 03% 08% 16% 0.57 0.69 0.66 32.0 $40.3 $92 0.26
Turf Route 01955 00062 03% 09% 17% 0.69 0.69 0.64 31.8 $43.7 $158 0.30
Wet Sprint 01948 00058 03% 09% 18% 0.56 0.62 0.58 28.4 $37.7 $87 0.24
Wet Route 00855 00027 03% 10% 20% 0.65 0.75 0.67 26.3 $41.0 $115 0.25
Artf Sprint 00862 00029 03% 09% 19% 0.55 0.61 0.61 28.5 $32.8 $59 0.28
Artf Route 00469 00017 04% 10% 19% 0.82 0.70 0.70 28.0 $45.2 $95 0.30


Longshots to place are dismal in all areas but better on turf. So in exactas maybe nothing 10 to one or above on the ticket to place.


Hold your horses... if the 10 to one is a Computer pick then the returns skyrocket.

HTR=1 00250 00012 05% 18% 28% 0.69 1.16 0.96 17.8 $28.9 $50 0.41
HTR=2 00650 00041 06% 15% 25% 0.99 0.83 0.71 18.3 $31.5 $80 0.51


So if you find one with a great rating u can play it hard

ok the highlighted number is the roi for a dollar. so .63 is horrible. If you use him in the exacta your dead meat. Anything above 90 is pretty good.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by teddy

ok the highlighted number is the roi for a dollar. so .63 is horrible. If you use him in the exacta your dead meat. Anything above 90 is pretty good.

What are the other figure columns?