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Old 09-16-2017, 09:58 PM   #16
VigorsTheGrey
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Los Alamitos 6th Race 16Sept2017 Saturday:

#3 Pat the Bear, last 5 consecutive races DRF C+. last 2 at Del Mar, has 118 early TimeformUS...thought he would do much better on the LA dirt...he did, but just couldn't last over #6 Hawk's Eyes...

Strange horse, as he seems to be the cause of the C+'s but runs ok despite himself...
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Old 09-17-2017, 07:54 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by hracingplyr View Post
I might be wrong but i think Pandy wrote a book about using the Bris Race Shapes.

Bob

It's called Pace Handicapping Longshots. The main handicapping spot play method in the book is called the Pace Shape Longshot method which uses a combination of the Bris pace figures and Bris race shapes, and it picked Oxbow ($32.80) to win the Preakness, and Palace Of Malice ($29.60) to win the Belmont a few years ago, plus tons of other longshot winners.
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Old 09-17-2017, 08:51 AM   #18
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TFUS allows you to toggle between the pace figures of the horse or the leader, and the times, of the race or the leader. For useful.
I have have great success using the adjusted horse times in old handicapping programs and ignoring beaten lengths that way.
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Old 09-17-2017, 04:55 PM   #19
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Take a look at the free race from Belmont - Race 8.

Pace Projector suggests a fast pace today.
The top 4 late pace horses are
"Par" for the race is 113, and all four have run within a couple of points in the Spotlight figure (111-115)

All four are in for that tag, so I am looking at the , 5th LP rated.
Using the adjusted times, I made Total Pace ( 2nd call + 3rd fraction ratings) for the contenders.

Ranking the horses, early and late- (I used two lines for the 2)


5/2
5/3
1/7
7/1
2/5
3/5
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Old 09-17-2017, 05:22 PM   #20
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So now that you know how to grab a 4-5 shot......
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Old 09-17-2017, 05:23 PM   #21
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So now that you know how to grab a 4-5 shot......
From the Chad Brown barn and the rail post...you really found the horse to send it in on.
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Old 09-17-2017, 06:13 PM   #22
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I love the taste of chalk on a sunny afternoon!
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Old 02-06-2019, 09:53 AM   #23
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I don't use class pars, I use baselines. They are based on the optimal percentage the winner runs for each fraction at each distance / surface combination at each track.

Code:
    6.0     22.00     44.33       68.34
    6.5     21.81     44.12       74.45
    7.0     22.62     44.84       80.98
That is a snippet from Saratoga on dirt. As an example, the optimal percentage to run the opening quarter at 6f is 22.00 / 68.34 = 0.3219. So, if a race were run with a final time of 1:11.00 (71 seconds), the optimal first quarter would be 71 x 0.3219 = 22.86.

That is the simplified version. Pace variants come into play as well but that is another story.
How wide is that range of opening quarters that a winner runs?
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Old 02-06-2019, 10:53 AM   #24
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How should a race be looked at for dead heat finishes? Horse A is leading at the pace call with a very fast time, Horse B is far back in the field. They hit the finish together. A head bob either way and it could be argued that speed held up or, the pace collapsed. Do you throw out the race? Average the pace calls?
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