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07-10-2014, 08:10 AM
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#1
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Exacta Wheel vs Win test
We have several testers posting at the same time,.... great, I'll jump in with one of my own.
A new "Fun Run" in this thread, playing Exacta Wheels with 2 "kickouts"
I'll be comparing Win bet return (same amount bet) to the $1 Part Wheel return.
Expecting to break even on win bets (before rebate) at about 30% Strike Rate
but this is a 'On paper only' run for me.
Theory is it's easier for the robot to kickout non contenders than it is to find contenders for the 2nd spot.
Thursday, 7/10
Hoosier R4.....#7 Fox Valley Griffin-3/1......7/All ... scr 10,8
Maywood R7.....#6 Yes We Did-9/2..............6/All ... scr 8,7
Maywood R9.....#8 Total Sin-3/1...............8/All ... scr 3,7
Mohawk R7......#6 Double Joy-7/1..............6/All ... scr 10,4
Northfield R4..#5 Hagitha-9/2.................5/All ... scr 6,8
Northfield R11.#2 Coupon Lady-7/2.............2/All ... scr 8,4
Chester R4.....#6 Pilatus-4/1.................6/All ... scr 2,1
Chester R8.....#8 Westward Hanover-5/2........8/All ... scr 1,7
Rideau R1......#4 Warrawee Prince-3/1.........4/All ... scr 1,6
Scioto R5......#5 Pow Chicka Pow Pow-10/1.....5/All ... scr 9,8
Scioto R11.....#5 Firetowers Stand-8/1........5/All ... scr 8,1
Saratoga R2....#4 Whitemountainkosmo-7/2......4/All ... scr 7,8
Saratoga R11...#5 Mayfield Hanover-3/1........5/All ... scr 8,6
75 $1 tickets if all start
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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07-10-2014, 07:19 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,915
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Ok so you are playing 1 exactas with the pick on top and throwing out 2 horses in the race. Correct?
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07-10-2014, 07:40 PM
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#3
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrroyboy
Ok so you are playing 1 exactas with the pick on top and throwing out 2 horses in the race. Correct?
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That's right, and there'll be some races where one of those kick-outs will sting me but that's the risk 
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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07-10-2014, 08:47 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,915
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Looks good to me. Hope you do some at Big M tomorrow.
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07-11-2014, 06:38 AM
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#5
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Results:
Scoring this run with $1 Part Wheel Exacta bets and comparing to putting the same amount on the nose.
Last night was exceptionally high on Win return and low on Exacta prices.
NFLD Hagitha paid $15 to Win, $37.60 Exacta, so 1$ ex wheel returns $18.80 while the same 6$ on win gets $45. 
Code:
7/10/14 To 7/10/14 ---- 13 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 74 125.75 51.75 1.70 6 46%
Wheel 74 74.75 0.75 1.01
Friday, July 11, 2014
mrroyboy, I have 3 for BigM today. complete disagreement with Giwner and Zoccali
and a special silly pick in R13 cause the bot knows how much you like Stacy and C-2 races 
Grand River R7 #1 Dapple Apple-9/2............1/All ... scr 5,6
Hoosier R6.....#4 Mystic Karissa-7/2..........4/All ... scr 9,1
Maywood R1.....#5 Fox Valley Hotstuf-8/1......5/All ... scr 8,4
Maywood R7.....#4 Dont Worry B Happy-3/1......4/All ... scr 6,7
Maywood R9.....#5 Rev Me Up-4/1...............5/All ... scr 8,7
The BigM R7....#9 Social Scene-9/2............9/All ... scr 5,8
The BigM R12...#6 Lola De Vie-9/2.............6/All ... scr 1,8
The BigM R13...#10 Heza Trick N-20/1.........10/All ... scr 3,7.. Silly one, Scr 3  does have best TM Class&Speed
Pocono R11.....#5 Jacked Up-3/1...............5/All ... scr 7,8
Scioto R10.....#5 Sweetheart Dance-6/1........5/All ... scr 4,8
Scioto R12.....#2 Smokin American-5/1.........2/All ... scr 4,9
Scioto R13.....#5 C G Satin-4/1...............5/All ... scr 10,9
Saratoga R10...#4 Browner Shuttle-9/2.........4/All ... scr 7,8
Tioga R13......#6 Fiesta Camcun-7/2...........6/All ... scr 2,8
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
Last edited by Ray2000; 07-11-2014 at 06:42 AM.
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07-11-2014, 01:20 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,915
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Yes I do but mainly when she is driving Mighty Young Joe. Hezatrick from the 10 post might be a bit much to overcome.
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07-12-2014, 05:53 AM
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#7
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Results:
Friday $82 bet, Win return $182,... Part wheel return $218
Got stung with "Jacked Up" at Pokie when my Kickout1 (the 7) fin 2nd ...Ex $173.60
but made up for it at Tioga "Fiesta" where collected on Ex $237.50 I wouldn't have hit without wheeling.
Code:
7/10/14 To 7/11/14 ---- 27 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win 154 307.70 153.70 2.00 13 48%
Wheel 154 292.55 138.55 1.90
Saturday, July 12, 2014
I wasn't expecting this but Bot came back with 35 races today (206 tkts if all start).
Hope it's an abnormality.
R. Aces R8.....#5 Umygeorgia Hanover-6/1......5/ - ... Scr 2,1
R. Aces R9.....#5 Country Jewel-3/1...........5/ - ... Scr 6,1
Balmoral R6....#9 Furious Frank-6/1...........9/ - ... Scr 3,7
Georgian R3....#1 Presquille-6/1..............1/ - ... Scr 3,7
Hoosier R1.....#5 Sammy'S Cool Win-4/1........5/ - ... Scr 4,7
Hoosier R4.....#5 Blueridge Doc-4/1...........5/ - ... Scr 10,9
Hoosier R6.....#5 Atomic Rei-15/1.............5/ - ... Scr 3,9
Hoosier R8.....#3 Sweet Talkin Satin-7/2......3/ - ... Scr 7,8
Hoosier R11....#4 Tyber Tyke-5/1..............4/ - ... Scr 5,1
Hoosier R13....#3 Royal Heart-10/1............3/ - ... Scr 9,1
Hoosier R14....#4 Singing Saint-3/1...........4/ - ... Scr 2,10
Mohawk R5......#5 Shadows Wonder-4/1..........5/ - ... Scr 8,2
Mohawk R6......#9 Solid Queen-10/1............9/ - ... Scr 10,3
Mohawk R8......#6 Foolish Mind-5/1............6/ - ... Scr 4,5
Mohawk R9......#8 Steady Warrior-4/1..........8/ - ... Scr 1,4
Mohawk R11.....#1 Donau-8/1...................1/ - ... Scr 4,8
The BigM R3....#5 Allstar Partner-5/1.........5/ - ... Scr 9,4
The BigM R12...#6 Sunfire Blue Chip-4/1.......6/ - ... Scr 7,1
Pocono R3......#2 My Masterpiece-7/2..........2/ - ... Scr 9,7
Pocono R7......#2 Atta Boy Dan-7/2............2/ - ... Scr 7,9
Pocono R12.....#6 Giant Sculpture-4/1.........6/ - ... Scr 5,2
Plainridge R8..#5 Glow Stick-7/2..............5/ - ... Scr 7,6
Plainridge R9..#5 Bettor Angel-8/1............5/ - ... Scr 2,7
Scioto R1......#3 Carmens Best-4/1............3/ - ... Scr 8,9
Scioto R5......#5 Ilikeitrealhot-4/1..........5/ - ... Scr 9,7
Scioto R7......#4 Ardyne Ace-5/1..............4/ - ... Scr 1,2
Scioto R9......#4 Thunder Cat-15/1............4/ - ... Scr 8,9
Scioto R11.....#5 Tobins Fortune-4/1..........5/ - ... Scr 9,7
Saratoga R7....#1 Talking Blues-4/1...........1/ - ... Scr 7,2
Saratoga R8....#5 Bet On Roulette-3/1.........5/ - ... Scr 7,8
Tioga R4.......#4 Volcano Shano-9/2...........4/ - ... Scr 1,8
Tioga R5.......#1 B L Class Act-7/2...........1/ - ... Scr 6,5
Tioga R11......#3 Halfway Gone-6/1............3/ - ... Scr 6,1
Yonkers R1.....#2 Cee Pee Panic-3/1...........2/ - ... Scr 8,5
Yonkers R3.....#2 Hard To Mach-7/2............2/ - ... Scr 7,8
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
Last edited by Ray2000; 07-12-2014 at 06:02 AM.
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07-12-2014, 05:54 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,915
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Ray in the races you don't have picks like at Meadowlands does the bot still throw out 2 horses? I would be very interested to see those if possible. Thanks Ray
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07-12-2014, 06:33 PM
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#9
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Just for you roy
The way I have it programmed right now there's actually 2 Bots, one looking for longshots and the other for high strike rate picks. When they agree on Pick 1 and it's not the Morning Line fave, the race makes my playlist. Some races aren't analyzed at all, Maidens, large fields, coupled entries, not a mile.
Here's the longshot list
Race..Horse...Name.................Kickout
R3....#5....Allstar Partner-5/1.......9,4
R6....#7....Weeper-10/1..............10,6
R7....#4....Shebestingin-4/1..........3,2
R8....#8....Sunshine Beach-20/1.......4,1
R9....#10....Doo Wop Hanover-30/1.....7,1
R10....#7....Classic Martine-3/1......3,1
R12....#6....Sunfire Blue Chip-4/1....7,1
the high strike bot goes with
R3 SAME
R6...5
R7...1
R8...3
R9...9
R10..5
R12.SAME
Good Luck tonite
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
Last edited by Ray2000; 07-12-2014 at 06:35 PM.
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07-12-2014, 08:34 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,915
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Ok Thanks Ray
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07-13-2014, 06:05 AM
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#11
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Results:
It wasn't a good night for either Bot at the Big Tracks M & MO 
Saturday $202 bet, Win return $140,... Part wheel Exacta return $117
In 2 races, the kickout hurt me, ....Tioga R5 ..big hurt
Code:
7/10/14 To 7/12/14 ---- 62 Races
Bet Return Net ROI Hits Strike
Win $356 $448 $92 1.26 22 35%
Wheel $356 $410 $54 1.15
Sunday, July 13, 2014 65 tkts
R. Aces R7....#4 Van Donk-4/1................4/ - ... Scr 7,6
R. Aces R8....#5 Totally Excellent-7/1.......5/ - ... Scr 8,6
R. Aces R9....#2 Jebswesternshake-3/1........2/ - ... Scr 6,1
Balmoral R6...#9 Fox Valley Veto-4/1.........9/ - ... Scr 5,7
Pocono R3.....#1 Mortal Zin-7/2..............1/ - ... Scr 2,5
Pocono R10....#3 Maxi Bon-7/2................3/ - ... Scr 9,6
Pocono R12....#1 Don'T Ya Know-7/2...........1/ - ... Scr 6,8
Chester R2....#6 Sally Savannah-5/2..........6/ - ... Scr 8,7
Chester R4....#6 Mystical Walter-15/1........6/ - ... Scr 8,3
Chester R5....#3 St Lads Dude-6/1............3/ - ... Scr 2,1
Rideau R3.....#1 Pick N Scoop-3/1............1/ - ... Scr 7,6
Saratoga R5...#1 Two Step Turn-3/1...........1/ - ... Scr 2,7
Tioga R5......#6 Golden Gun-5/1..............6/ - ... Scr 3,5
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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07-13-2014, 07:32 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,191
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ray2000
It wasn't a good night for either Bot at the Big Tracks M & MO
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Ray: Do you ever get mad at the Bot/s and if yes how does it react?
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07-13-2014, 09:29 AM
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#13
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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..
Yeah, it gets frustrating at times. The original bot was designed for longshot angles, like "tossing troubled lines (BNQ)", or "has an outside post but lone gate speed" or "sharp inside closer while predicting a barn-burner first half". That seemed to work for top pick but not for 2nd and 3rd picks. So bot #2 was put together using a logistic regression approach to identify horses with the best chance to "hit the board".
We joked around with some posts here about "marrying" the 2 robots and coming up with baby-bot. I never did write the new code for that baby, just run both programs and look at races where they agree on the Top Pick.
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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07-13-2014, 02:28 PM
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#14
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BC Canada
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 2,286
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I really enjoy following your posts - thanks for sharing as much as you do!!
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07-13-2014, 06:59 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 1,915
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Can anybody put together software that is very good at eliminating non contenders?
That's what I was asking you about Ray.
See if I like horse 1 and your bot throws out 2 others I only have 7 horses to consider for exactas etc.
Saves a lot of time and money
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