Handicapping Method

[GaryG]

PP lines are only a representation of reality. The reality is how the race was run. Some horses were greatly disadvantaged by the pace and/or trip while others reap the benefits. Occasionally you find a horse with the best figures earned them under tough circumstances, probably a good bet. Race-watching does not seem to have caught on like speed figures etc because it is in the eye of the beholder. If you would like a good course in trips you should get Dan Illman's DVD.

[mountainman]

I'm an old-school, intuitive handicapper who feels fortunate to have first been exposed to the well-rounded, comprehensive teachings of Ainslie. That said, I've evolved to view t-bred form as an organic, fluctuating thing that should never be reduced to a single performance or paceline. I read from the bottom up and look intently for the storyline in a set of past performances. Hopefully, that approach not only enlivens our telecast, but sheds light on where a horse is headed. In other words, how big a horse has run is less important to me than how it will run today.

In a similar vein, I usually stress context over form. Many winners aren't necessarily best, but are instead flattered by raceflow or circumstance. Experience has taught me that a slightly inferior animal well-suited to today's pace or conditions is often the best value.

As a well known proponent of taking daily track-trends into account, I guested on 'night school' when bias was the topic, keep a running log of bias on mnr's website, and type my personal notes into formulator, which I use mainly as a timesaver in preparing for the show. Aside from formulator, my caveman concessions to technology consist of two excel spreadsheets (I'm too stupid to navigate a real database)-one that profiles mnr's main oval, and another that profiles invading horses with an an emphasis on trainer patterns and feeder tracks.

I believe strongly that it's a trainer's game and that stable intent can be better read through short- term cycles than through stale, widely- disseminated, long-term stats.

It is also my belief that drugging has reached epidemic proportions and plays havoc with even the best attempts at handicapping. Consequently, I'm an advocate of draconian penalties.

[thaskalos]

There is also the question of the "reliability" of the PPs, IMO.

When the horses ran back in 10-14 days, like they did in the past, the PPs were more believable. But now that they run every 3-4 weeks...those that have knowledge of the day-to-day condition of the horse hold too much of an upper hand over the betting public who rely on printed data alone.

How do you assess the horse's "current" form...when his last race took place a month ago? Too many things could have gone wrong since then...

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Geez, Thasky... getting sensitive here, aren't you?

Guys, Cincy made a provocative post to begin with - stating that this good old-fashioned way...



... was most effective.

I disagree vehemently.

Listen, if I said, "My way is the most effective way..." blah, blah, blah... then I'd be guilty of misleading people. I didn't say that. I said that I really thought that was bad advice.

I did not say "Do it my way." I said "here is a simple way to do it."


I am really trying to be done here.

I stand by what I said because the method is not "Mine".The grading itself belongs to one's own subjectivity.I think doing this prevents one from indulging too many marginal races and keeps one focused on the most well understood and likely outcomes.My first couple posts were littered with value concepts and that is clearly being ignored.I know the true value of a race is not revealed until the odds are shown,but what I am doing with this is giving myself a blueprint or gameplan for approaching a card.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by mountainman

I'm an old-school, intuitive handicapper who feels fortunate to have first been exposed to the well-rounded, comprehensive teachings of Ainslie. That said, I've evolved to view t-bred form as an organic, fluctuating thing that should never be reduced to a single performance or paceline. I read from the bottom up and look intently for the storyline in a set of past performances. Hopefully, that approach not only enlivens our telecast, but sheds light on where a horse is headed. In other words, how big a horse has run is less important to me than how it will run today.

In a similar vein, I usually stress context over form. Many winners aren't necessarily best, but are instead flattered by raceflow or circumstance. Experience has taught me that a slightly inferior animal well-suited to today's pace or conditions is often the best value.

As a well known proponent of taking daily track-trends into account, I guested on 'night school' when bias was the topic, keep a running log of bias on mnr's website, and type my personal notes into formulator, which I use mainly as a timesaver in preparing for the show. Aside from formulator, my caveman concessions to technology consist of two excel spreadsheets (I'm too stupid to navigate a real database)-one that profiles mnr's main oval, and another that profiles invading horses with an an emphasis on trainer patterns and feeder tracks.

I believe strongly that it's a trainer's game and that stable intent can be better read through short- term cycles than through stale, widely- disseminated, long-term stats.

It is also my belief that drugging has reached epidemic proportions and plays havoc with even the best attempts at handicapping. Consequently, I'm an advocate of draconian penalties.

Marc
Same Handicapping here and Mountineer class set up lends to this type of trainer intent selections which is all in the PP and i could be wrong no computer program can pick this out??.
Mac

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Marc
Same Handicapping here and Mountineer class set up lends to this type of trainer intent selections which is all in the PP and i could be wrong no computer program can pick this out??.
Mac

I agree, pal. The mountain is a tricky venue with unique tendencies. No doubt it can make crybabies from good handicappers. At times, it can be a tease, dangling fat payoffs that seem attainable so close, but not quite hittable and just out of reach. And for a smaller track, it definitely attracts a surprisingly sharp, hardcore fanbase. It's not a place for amateurs, which is the main reason we never dumb the show down. We've been called a 'cult' track, and that's as good a description as any.

[windoor]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Marc
Same Handicapping here and Mountineer class set up lends to this type of trainer intent selections which is all in the PP and i could be wrong no computer program can pick this out??.
Mac

As I pride myself on form cycles, I will have to take a special interest in this track when the time comes.

I have special Excel program that is set up to do just that.

I will take the challenge

Regards,

Windoor

[Tom]

Proven method.
Take my PAIHL picks and completely eliminate all of them, box the rest of the field.

[maddog42]

Originally Posted by Tom

Proven method.
Take my PAIHL picks and completely eliminate all of them, box the rest of the field.

Tom there have been days when my picks work the same way. Keep your dobber up and keep on bangin. I had a day not too long ago when none of my picks finished better than 4th, and a couple of those races I bet 2 horses!!!It happens and I don't care who you are: Beyer or God, those damn horses run crazy sometimes.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by windoor

As I pride myself on form cycles, I will have to take a special interest in this track when the time comes.

I have special Excel program that is set up to do just that.

I will take the challenge

Regards,

Windoor

March till December I will be playing five days week except on other than fast track.

Mac

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by bob60566

Marc
Same Handicapping here and Mountineer class set up lends to this type of trainer intent selections which is all in the PP and i could be wrong no computer program can pick this out??.
Mac

Anything you can find in PP's, a computer can find. It could take some complex programming, but once the programming is done, the computer will typically be much faster.

[Capper Al]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Anything you can find in PP's, a computer can find. It could take some complex programming, but once the programming is done, the computer will typically be much faster.

You got it. My app finds Extreme Pace lines, key race lines, besides crunching the usual speed, class, and connection figs. I mention the Extreme Pace and key race because it is a little more complex than just averaging a bunch of speed figures. Matter of fact, I rarely double check these now. I still make a few adjustments to the spreadsheets. For one, BRIS Multicaps does have post stats and sometimes the connections aren't what they seem. For example, there might be a trainer with a low percentage overall, but trains maiden well in a maiden race. The connection thing can be solved with coding. It's on my list. On the other hand, the list seems never to end.

[bob60566]

Originally Posted by mountainman

I'm an old-school, intuitive handicapper who feels fortunate to have first been exposed to the well-rounded, comprehensive teachings of Ainslie. That said, I've evolved to view t-bred form as an organic, fluctuating thing that should never be reduced to a single performance or paceline. I read from the bottom up and look intently for the storyline in a set of past performances. Hopefully, that approach not only enlivens our telecast, but sheds light on where a horse is headed. In other words, how big a horse has run is less important to me than how it will run today.

In a similar vein, I usually stress context over form. Many winners aren't necessarily best, but are instead flattered by raceflow or circumstance. Experience has taught me that a slightly inferior animal well-suited to today's pace or conditions is often the best value.

As a well known proponent of taking daily track-trends into account, I guested on 'night school' when bias was the topic, keep a running log of bias on mnr's website, and type my personal notes into formulator, which I use mainly as a timesaver ina preparing for the show. Aside from formulator, my caveman concessions to technology consist of two excel spreadsheets (I'm too stupid to navigate a real database)-one that profiles mnr's main oval, and another that profiles invading horses with an an emphasis on trainer patterns and feeder tracks.

I believe strongly that it's a trainer's game and that stable intent can be better read through short- term cycles than through stale, widely- disseminated, long-term stats.

It is also my belief that drugging has reached epidemic proportions and plays havoc with even the best attempts at handicapping. Consequently, I'm an advocate of draconian penalties.

Al

To me the above post is a excellent and well worded piece of handicapping advice for everbody that reads it over and over.
I would love to be able to incorparate Mountainmans comments into my Bris Data files, I handicap about 90% on the above comments and believe they cannot be programmed even in SQL .
My very basic example is give the computer A dictionary and ask it to write a given classic novel rudeamental example you get the idea.
This not about anybodys handicapping style or method more of the shortfall of computer data handicapping which i believe is incapable of interpreting data on PP for trainer intent.
By trainer intent I do not refer percentages on any given race stats except jock/trainer.

Mac

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Capper Al

Didn't Cincy say that he decided first if the race was playable? Isn't this right out of Tom Ainslie's books? It's good advise if Cincy said it or not.

No Al,in Dave's first response to my post he isolated and highlighted 9 words out of it,ignored the rest of that post and my other posts and made his conclusions.I just reread this and that is exactly what happened.

[Dave Schwartz]

Are you fishing for something here Cincy?