Keeneland lowers DD takeout to 15% from 22%

[Andy Asaro]

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Last edited by Andy Asaro; 03-29-2024 at 04:44 PM.

[wisconsin]

That's quite fantastic. Doubles at Keeneland are one of my go to bets.

[MJC922]

That's awesome

[classhandicapper]

IMO this is a better idea than lower take Pick 5s or 6s. I think the average bettor is better off with less volatility in their results. That's what they'll get from WPS, EX and DB.

I think the main question is whether a lower take bet like this brings in enough new money to offset the lower take or whether it just shifts the betting from other pools to the double pool instead.

[MJC922]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

IMO this is a better idea than lower take Pick 5s or 6s. I think the average bettor is better off with less volatility in their results. That's what they'll get from WPS, EX and DB.

I think the main question is whether a lower take bet like this brings in enough new money to offset the lower take or whether it just shifts the betting from other pools to the double pool instead.

Has to help with churn IMO. This whole thing with people getting a monthly check, going deep into long horizontals, mechanically separated from their money immediately and then you don't see them again for another month or even two is the absolute worst thing for the game. Things are moving in the right direction IMO. Long horizontals are fine for a subset of people but it isn't something the game should try to hang its hat on. They're at least trying to help their customers here. Projected odds is the other piece of it IMO, dynamic morning line, call it what you will but it builds a safety net of sorts with respect to keeping people more consistently on the horses they want at the prices they want, I'm not sure if that's in the works at all at KEE though.

[Poindexter]

I know Keenland is a big deal to a lot of folks. With this new 15% takeout double, you can play double parlays instead of pick 4's for near the same price (the pick 4 will pay about 8% more but there are some advantages to the double parlay). The pick 4 pays 78 cents on the dollar. The double parlay would be .85*.85 or 72.25 cents on the dollar. So what are the advantages I am talking about. Well for one you get to be more selective on your races. Maybe the races that appeal to you are not the actual pick 4 races, but races 3 and 4 and further down the card races 7 and 8. Now you can pretend the pick 4 is in races 3,4,7,8. Map those 4 races as you would any pick 4 and simulate the pick 4 via double bets. So if you are 2x3x4x2 in these 4 races instead of a $1 pick 4 for $48, you play and $8 double in races 3 and 4 and parlay what you get back to the double in races 7 and 8. A second advantage is if you have races that you like a number of price horses but you need to go deep and the cost of your pick 4 is too high, you can scale the price down with a double parlay. The 3rd advantage is that whatever you get back on the first double will be parlayed to the second double and thus make you bet more. So if you get rebates or players points, they will be more. The 4th advantage is that if you have a score in the first double, and you are way ahead you can either insure breaking even or even lock in a profit, without having to hit the late double(if you want to).
Aside from all these advantages you can send the right message by pulling money from the higher takeout pick 4 pool and multiplying the amount you bet in the double pool.

Some food for thought as Keenland begins Friday.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not a fan of parlays of any type ever, but I love the ability to leverage value oriented opinions in 2 races into greater value in the double than just betting both races to win.

[Redboard]

Hard to believe that playing two DD parlays would pay better that a pick 4. If a pick four had 2x5x3x2 and the better was dead after the second leg, then all of his/her money would go into the pool. If it were two DDs at 2x5 and 3x2 then that bet would not include the second DD money. That would still be alive.

Every time I ever hit a DD it didn't pay much. I'd rather do a Pick 3 because at least the last leg is a blind pool.

Food for thought though Poindex.

Now if Keenland reduced the Pick3 takeout or even the exacta takeout, that would get my attention.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Hard to believe that playing two DD parlays would pay better that a pick 4. If a pick four had 2x5x3x2 and the better was dead after the second leg, then all of his/her money would go into the pool. If it were two DDs at 2x5 and 3x2 then that bet would not include the second DD money. That would still be alive.

Every time I ever hit a DD it didn't pay much. I'd rather do a Pick 3 because at least the last leg is a blind pool.

Food for thought though Poindex.

Now if Keenland reduced the Pick3 takeout or even the exacta takeout, that would get my attention.

Didn’t say better I showed it would pay 8 percent worse on average. I just provided some reasons why that 8 percent disadvantage might be worth it (mainly better race selectivity).

When they pay back 85 cents on the dollar instead of 78 cents on the dollar that should average to about a 9 percent better payout on every double. Compounded over a daily double parlay that would be an 18.8 percent increase over what you would have gotten back at the old takeout, theoretically.

Just for the heck of it I will compare the double parlay payoffs and the pick 4 payoffs to see how this plays out. I will post after every 3 racing days or so.

Not following your point about the 2x5x3x2 pick 4. A 50 cent pick 4 would cost $30. On a daily double parlay you would bet a $3 double 2 x 5 or $30 on the first double and would not get a chance to even play the second double. Now if instead you lost leg 3 or 4 you would have a second bet on the late double (increasing the amount you bet which might help you in the player rewards department). Rebated players likely would bet higher rebates in the pick 4 pools and typically pay a pretty consistent takeout throughout, so they typically always get good pricing (you know the way it should be for everyone).

[Andy Asaro]

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[Andy Asaro]

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[Andy Asaro]

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[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...88282594558395

https://twitter.com/racetrackandy/st...22232151068878

yesterday i thought the double pools were way up, i didn't realize it was up that much of an amount. i played 3 doubles and didn't hit any even though i had a few winners there yesterday, i just couldn't put them together!

i am going to give it another try today and hope for a better result!

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

yesterday i thought the double pools were way up, i didn't realize it was up that much of an amount. i played 3 doubles and didn't hit any even though i had a few winners there yesterday, i just couldn't put them together!

i am going to give it another try today and hope for a better result!