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10-25-2021, 01:00 PM
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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WEEKLY SUMMARY (10/20 to 10/23)
MFL which were bet:
# of races = 47
# of wins = 15
% hits = 32%
$ bet = $940
$ back = $683
$ lost =-$257
% loss = -27%
MFL not bet:
# of races = 65
# of wins = 17
% hits = 26%
$ bet = $1300
$ back = $951
$ lost =-$349
% loss = -26%
Alternates:
# of races = 63
# of wins = 10
% hits = 16%
$ bet = $1260
$ back = $1119
$ lost =-$141
% loss = -11%
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-28-2021, 12:00 PM
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/28/21
Bet these MLF to win:
Lrl 2----#4
Lrl 7----#15
Kee 2----#7
Kee 3----#2
Kee 4----#7
Kee 8----#9
Pass These MLF's:
Lrl 1---#14
Lrl 3---#9
Lrl 5---#11
Lrl 6---#8
Lrl 8---#7
Lrl 9---#4
Kee 1---#8
Kee 5---#4
Kee 6---#3
Kee 9---#4
Alternates:
Lrl 1---#6
Lrl 3---#8
Lrl 5---#8
Lrl 6---#4
Lrl 8---#6
Lrl 9---#7
Kee 1---#2
Kee 5---#10
Kee 6---#5
Kee 9---#6
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-29-2021, 12:52 AM
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/28/21
Bet these MLF to win:
Lrl 2----#4---sh
Lrl 7----#15--out
Kee 2----#7---pl
Kee 3----#2---out
Kee 4----#7---56
Kee 8----#9---out
1/6 = -$64
Pass These MLF's:
Lrl 1---#14---sh
Lrl 3---#9----48
Lrl 5---#11---48
Lrl 6---#8----60
Lrl 8---#7----out
Lrl 9---#4----80
Kee 1---#8---28
Kee 5---#4---32
Kee 6---#3---out
Kee 9---#4---pl
6/10 = +$196
Alternates:
Lrl 1---#6---out
Lrl 3---#8---pl
Lrl 5---#8---pl
Lrl 6---#4---pl
Lrl 8---#6---out
Lrl 9---#7---sh
Kee 1---#2---pl
Kee 5---#10--out
Kee 6---#5--scratched
Kee 9---#6---out
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-29-2021, 10:27 AM
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/28/21
Bet these MLF to win:
Bel 3----#7
Bel 4----#6
Bel 8----#4
Kee 1----#6
Kee 2----#1
Kee 4----#2
WO 1----#1
WO 5----#5
WO 6----#2
Haw 3----#4
Haw 4----#6
Haw 7----#1
Pass These MLF's:
Bel 1----#6
Bel 2----#5
Bel 5----#5
Bel 7----#1
Bel 9----#11
Kee 3---#4
Kee 5---#3
Kee 6---#8
Kee 7---#3
Kee 8---#9
Kee 9---#3
Kee 10--#8
WO 2----#4
WO 3----#4
WO 4----#3
WO 7----#4
WO 8----#15
Haw 1----#6
Haw 2----#6
Haw 5----#5
Haw 6----#1
Haw 8----#9
Haw 9----#3
Alternates:
Bel 1----#5
Bel 2----#6
Bel 5----#8
Bel 7----#8
Bel 9----#5
Kee 3---#9
Kee 5---#4
Kee 6---#1
Kee 7---#1
Kee 8---#2
Kee 9---#4
Kee 10--#7
WO 2----#7
WO 3----#2
WO 4----#10
WO 7----#6
WO 8----#4
Haw 1----#2
Haw 2----#4
Haw 5----#7
Haw 6----#3
Haw 8----#6
Haw 9----#6
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-30-2021, 12:24 AM
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/28/21
Bet these MLF to win:
Bel 3----#7---sh
Bel 4----#6---35
Bel 8----#4---pl
Kee 1----#6---sh
Kee 2----#1---out
Kee 4----#2---out
WO 1----#1---pl
WO 5----#5---out
WO 6----#2---sh
Haw 3----#4---48
Haw 4----#6---out
Haw 7----#1---out
2/12 = -$157
Pass These MLF's:
Bel 1----#6---sh
Bel 2----#5---69
Bel 5----#5---out
Bel 7----#1---sh
Bel 9----#11--37
Kee 3---#4---28
Kee 5---#3---64
Kee 6---#8---68
Kee 7---#3---scratched
Kee 8---#9---out
Kee 9---#3---pl
Kee 10--#8--32
WO 2----#4---out
WO 3----#4---sh
WO 4----#3---scratched
WO 7----#4---43
WO 8----#15--out
Haw 1----#6---pl
Haw 2----#6---pl
Haw 5----#5---62
Haw 6----#1---out
Haw 8----#9---50
Haw 9----#3---out
9/21 = +$33
Alternates:
Bel 1----#5---out
Bel 2----#6---out
Bel 5----#8---out
Bel 7----#8---out
Bel 9----#5---pl
Kee 3---#9---pl
Kee 5---#4---out
Kee 6---#1---out
Kee 7---#1---scratched
Kee 8---#2---out
Kee 9---#4---out
Kee 10--#7--out
WO 2----#7---out
WO 3----#2---52
WO 4----#10--pl
WO 7----#6---out
WO 8----#4---ou
Haw 1----#2---out
Haw 2----#4---42
Haw 5----#7---sh
Haw 6----#3---out
Haw 8----#6---sh
Haw 9----#6---pl
1/22 = -$388
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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10-30-2021, 12:08 PM
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/30/21
Bet these MLF to win:
Kee 2----#13
Kee 7----#7
Kee 10---#1
WO 1----#10
WO 3----#1
WO 4----#9
WO 5----#4
SA 1----#1
SA 5----#12
SA 6----#7
SA 9----#3
Haw 5----#5
Haw 7----#9
Pass These MLF's:
Kee 1----#5
Kee 4----#2
Kee 5----#5
Kee 6----#2
Kee 8----#11
Kee 9----#5
WO 2----#3
WO 6----#6
WO 7----#11
WO 8----#6
WO 9----#7
WO 10---#2
WO 11---#6
SA 2----#6
SA 3----#4
SA 4----#1
SA 7----#2
SA 8----#8
SA 10---#3
Haw 1---#1
Haw 2---#3
Haw 3---#7
Haw 4---#11
Haw 6---#1
Haw 8---#3
Haw 9---#1
Alternates:
Kee 1----#8
Kee 4----#8
Kee 5----#10
Kee 6----#9
Kee 8----#10
Kee 9----#7
WO 2----#10
WO 6----#10
WO 7----#3
WO 8----#10
WO 9----#8
WO 10---#9
WO 11---#11
SA 2----#6
SA 3----#4
SA 4----#1
SA 7----#2
SA 8----#8
SA 10---#1
Haw 1---#6
Haw 2---#6
Haw 3---#4
Haw 4---#3
Haw 6---#3
Haw 8---#4
Haw 9---#9
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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11-02-2021, 11:14 AM
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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10/30/21
Bet these MLF to win:
Kee 2----#13--out
Kee 7----#7---pl
Kee 10---#1--28
WO 1----#10--77
WO 3----#1---pl
WO 4----#9---pl
WO 5----#4---sh
SA 1----#1---32
SA 5----#12--scratched
SA 6----#7---34
SA 9----#3---38
Haw 5----#5---out
Haw 7----#9---pl
5/12 = -$31
Pass These MLF's:
Kee 1----#5---sh
Kee 4----#2---out
Kee 5----#5---sh
Kee 6----#2---out
Kee 8----#11--70
Kee 9----#5---90
WO 2----#3---out
WO 6----#6---111
WO 7----#11--sh
WO 8----#6---out
WO 9----#7---out
WO 10---#2--out
WO 11---#6---out
SA 2----#6---sh
SA 3----#4---40
SA 4----#1---56
SA 7----#2---out
SA 8----#8---out
SA 10---#3--64
Haw 1---#1---out
Haw 2---#3---64
Haw 3---#7---44
Haw 4---#11--scratched
Haw 6---#1---pl
Haw 8---#3---pl
Haw 9---#1---out
8/25 = +$39
Alternates:
Kee 1----#8---108
Kee 4----#8---pl
Kee 5----#10--pl
Kee 6----#9---out
Kee 8----#10--out
Kee 9----#7---pl
WO 2----#10---out
WO 6----#10---out
WO 7----#3----out
WO 8----#10---out
WO 9----#8----out
WO 10---#9----out
WO 11---#11---out
SA 2----#6---sh
SA 3----#4---40
SA 4----#1---56
SA 7----#2---out
SA 8----#8---out
SA 10---#1---64
Haw 1---#6---48
Haw 2---#6---pl
Haw 3---#4---out
Haw 4---#3---out
Haw 6---#3---40
Haw 8---#4---out
Haw 9---#9---sh
6/25 = -$144
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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11-02-2021, 12:09 PM
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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I'm going to abort this study. While the MLF's I like do better than the ones I dislike, there appears to be little chance for a positive outcome. Here is a summary of all bets in the study.
Win hit rate:
Favored MLF = 34%
Disliked MLF = 22%
Alternate ML = 17%
Money Lost:
Favored MLF = -21%
Disliked MLF = -31%
Alternate ML = -17%
Hit the board (w,p or s):
Favored MLF = 68%
Disliked MLF = 60%
Alternate ML = 47%
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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11-22-2021, 06:17 PM
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
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Most systematic studies like this wind up showing little or no value. I think this study wasn't bad at all. The horses you threw out did way worse than the ones you kept. That's already positive. Maybe you need a little more work, especially on the "alternates" to improve the ROI.
What was the criteria for throwing MLFs out?
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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11-26-2021, 04:40 PM
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2019
Posts: 1,287
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__________
this is an unscientific observation but anyway
years ago I had this idea that shots would be more likely to win in certain types of races
specifically I was looking at cheap maiden claimers and races with first time starters
my thinking was that with these cheap maiden claimers so often all of the horses are so bad it would be very hard to back one as a fave
my thinking was that with first time starters it would be all but impossible to name a fave since you could only rely on breeding, and jock and trainer and workouts - and to me that seems to be hardly enough
so, I looked at a couple of hundred races in each category
and I was quite surprised to find out how wrong I was
in each category the fave won about 33% just as in racing overall
so, my idea fell far short of being brilliant
.
__________________
believe only half of what you see.....and nothing that you hear..................Edgar Allan Poe
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12-14-2021, 04:16 PM
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Most systematic studies like this wind up showing little or no value. I think this study wasn't bad at all. The horses you threw out did way worse than the ones you kept. That's already positive. Maybe you need a little more work, especially on the "alternates" to improve the ROI.
What was the criteria for throwing MLFs out?
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I tossed the MLF is it was 5 or more lengths behind the winner in both of it's last two races. I also tossed the MLF when another horse had a better finish and competed in a higher class race (last two).
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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12-15-2021, 06:40 AM
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#42
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aner
I'm going to abort this study. While the MLF's I like do better than the ones I dislike, there appears to be little chance for a positive outcome. Here is a summary of all bets in the study.
Win hit rate:
Favored MLF = 34%
Disliked MLF = 22%
Alternate ML = 17%
Money Lost:
Favored MLF = -21%
Disliked MLF = -31%
Alternate ML = -17%
Hit the board (w,p or s):
Favored MLF = 68%
Disliked MLF = 60%
Alternate ML = 47%
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If you have the data, recalculate your flat bet size to proportional odds bet size. 1/(final win odds +1) and apply as your new bet size. Also, for those races you don't like the favorite, bet all the other horses proportionally
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 12-15-2021 at 06:44 AM.
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12-21-2021, 05:25 PM
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
If you have the data, recalculate your flat bet size to proportional odds bet size. 1/(final win odds +1) and apply as your new bet size. Also, for those races you don't like the favorite, bet all the other horses proportionally
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Thank you for the intriguing suggestion.I would imagine one would have a bet $50 to $100 a race to proportionally bet all horses but one. Since I am a confirmed $2 bettor that is way beyond my comfort zone. I'll have to pass.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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12-22-2021, 01:37 AM
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 93
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For every data point you use in the handicapping you lose something in the odds value. The most lucrative approach is going by intuition if you can pull it off (as actually also advocated by Dr Sartin in his paceline selection method). I also seem to recall Mr Pizzola as an advocate of this approach, perhaps like anything it's just a skill that can improve with training (and some faith). Perhaps one also needs to specialize in something.
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