MLF bet or pass

[Aner]

WEEKLY SUMMARY (10/20 to 10/23)

MFL which were bet:

# of races = 47
# of wins = 15
% hits = 32%

$ bet = $940
$ back = $683
$ lost =-$257
% loss = -27%

MFL not bet:

# of races = 65
# of wins = 17
% hits = 26%

$ bet = $1300
$ back = $951
$ lost =-$349
% loss = -26%

Alternates:

# of races = 63
# of wins = 10
% hits = 16%

$ bet = $1260
$ back = $1119
$ lost =-$141
% loss = -11%

[Aner]

10/28/21

Bet these MLF to win:

Lrl 2----#4
Lrl 7----#15

Kee 2----#7
Kee 3----#2
Kee 4----#7
Kee 8----#9

Pass These MLF's:

Lrl 1---#14
Lrl 3---#9
Lrl 5---#11
Lrl 6---#8
Lrl 8---#7
Lrl 9---#4

Kee 1---#8
Kee 5---#4
Kee 6---#3
Kee 9---#4

Alternates:

Lrl 1---#6
Lrl 3---#8
Lrl 5---#8
Lrl 6---#4
Lrl 8---#6
Lrl 9---#7

Kee 1---#2
Kee 5---#10
Kee 6---#5
Kee 9---#6

[Aner]

10/28/21

Bet these MLF to win:

Lrl 2----#4---sh
Lrl 7----#15--out

Kee 2----#7---pl
Kee 3----#2---out
Kee 4----#7---56
Kee 8----#9---out

1/6 = -$64

Pass These MLF's:

Lrl 1---#14---sh
Lrl 3---#9----48
Lrl 5---#11---48
Lrl 6---#8----60
Lrl 8---#7----out
Lrl 9---#4----80

Kee 1---#8---28
Kee 5---#4---32
Kee 6---#3---out
Kee 9---#4---pl

6/10 = +$196

Alternates:

Lrl 1---#6---out
Lrl 3---#8---pl
Lrl 5---#8---pl
Lrl 6---#4---pl
Lrl 8---#6---out
Lrl 9---#7---sh

Kee 1---#2---pl
Kee 5---#10--out
Kee 6---#5--scratched
Kee 9---#6---out

[Aner]

10/28/21

Bet these MLF to win:

Bel 3----#7
Bel 4----#6
Bel 8----#4


Kee 1----#6
Kee 2----#1
Kee 4----#2

WO 1----#1
WO 5----#5
WO 6----#2

Haw 3----#4
Haw 4----#6
Haw 7----#1

Pass These MLF's:

Bel 1----#6
Bel 2----#5
Bel 5----#5
Bel 7----#1
Bel 9----#11

Kee 3---#4
Kee 5---#3
Kee 6---#8
Kee 7---#3
Kee 8---#9
Kee 9---#3
Kee 10--#8

WO 2----#4
WO 3----#4
WO 4----#3
WO 7----#4
WO 8----#15

Haw 1----#6
Haw 2----#6
Haw 5----#5
Haw 6----#1
Haw 8----#9
Haw 9----#3

Alternates:

Bel 1----#5
Bel 2----#6
Bel 5----#8
Bel 7----#8
Bel 9----#5

Kee 3---#9
Kee 5---#4
Kee 6---#1
Kee 7---#1
Kee 8---#2
Kee 9---#4
Kee 10--#7

WO 2----#7
WO 3----#2
WO 4----#10
WO 7----#6
WO 8----#4

Haw 1----#2
Haw 2----#4
Haw 5----#7
Haw 6----#3
Haw 8----#6
Haw 9----#6

[Aner]

10/28/21

Bet these MLF to win:

Bel 3----#7---sh
Bel 4----#6---35
Bel 8----#4---pl


Kee 1----#6---sh
Kee 2----#1---out
Kee 4----#2---out

WO 1----#1---pl
WO 5----#5---out
WO 6----#2---sh

Haw 3----#4---48
Haw 4----#6---out
Haw 7----#1---out

2/12 = -$157

Pass These MLF's:

Bel 1----#6---sh
Bel 2----#5---69
Bel 5----#5---out
Bel 7----#1---sh
Bel 9----#11--37

Kee 3---#4---28
Kee 5---#3---64
Kee 6---#8---68
Kee 7---#3---scratched
Kee 8---#9---out
Kee 9---#3---pl
Kee 10--#8--32

WO 2----#4---out
WO 3----#4---sh
WO 4----#3---scratched
WO 7----#4---43
WO 8----#15--out

Haw 1----#6---pl
Haw 2----#6---pl
Haw 5----#5---62
Haw 6----#1---out
Haw 8----#9---50
Haw 9----#3---out

9/21 = +$33

Alternates:

Bel 1----#5---out
Bel 2----#6---out
Bel 5----#8---out
Bel 7----#8---out
Bel 9----#5---pl

Kee 3---#9---pl
Kee 5---#4---out
Kee 6---#1---out
Kee 7---#1---scratched
Kee 8---#2---out
Kee 9---#4---out
Kee 10--#7--out

WO 2----#7---out
WO 3----#2---52
WO 4----#10--pl
WO 7----#6---out
WO 8----#4---ou

Haw 1----#2---out
Haw 2----#4---42
Haw 5----#7---sh
Haw 6----#3---out
Haw 8----#6---sh
Haw 9----#6---pl

1/22 = -$388

[Aner]

10/30/21

Bet these MLF to win:

Kee 2----#13
Kee 7----#7
Kee 10---#1

WO 1----#10
WO 3----#1
WO 4----#9
WO 5----#4

SA 1----#1
SA 5----#12
SA 6----#7
SA 9----#3

Haw 5----#5
Haw 7----#9

Pass These MLF's:

Kee 1----#5
Kee 4----#2
Kee 5----#5
Kee 6----#2
Kee 8----#11
Kee 9----#5

WO 2----#3
WO 6----#6
WO 7----#11
WO 8----#6
WO 9----#7
WO 10---#2
WO 11---#6

SA 2----#6
SA 3----#4
SA 4----#1
SA 7----#2
SA 8----#8
SA 10---#3

Haw 1---#1
Haw 2---#3
Haw 3---#7
Haw 4---#11
Haw 6---#1
Haw 8---#3
Haw 9---#1

Alternates:

Kee 1----#8
Kee 4----#8
Kee 5----#10
Kee 6----#9
Kee 8----#10
Kee 9----#7

WO 2----#10
WO 6----#10
WO 7----#3
WO 8----#10
WO 9----#8
WO 10---#9
WO 11---#11

SA 2----#6
SA 3----#4
SA 4----#1
SA 7----#2
SA 8----#8
SA 10---#1

Haw 1---#6
Haw 2---#6
Haw 3---#4
Haw 4---#3
Haw 6---#3
Haw 8---#4
Haw 9---#9

[Aner]

10/30/21

Bet these MLF to win:

Kee 2----#13--out
Kee 7----#7---pl
Kee 10---#1--28

WO 1----#10--77
WO 3----#1---pl
WO 4----#9---pl
WO 5----#4---sh

SA 1----#1---32
SA 5----#12--scratched
SA 6----#7---34
SA 9----#3---38

Haw 5----#5---out
Haw 7----#9---pl

5/12 = -$31

Pass These MLF's:

Kee 1----#5---sh
Kee 4----#2---out
Kee 5----#5---sh
Kee 6----#2---out
Kee 8----#11--70
Kee 9----#5---90

WO 2----#3---out
WO 6----#6---111
WO 7----#11--sh
WO 8----#6---out
WO 9----#7---out
WO 10---#2--out
WO 11---#6---out

SA 2----#6---sh
SA 3----#4---40
SA 4----#1---56
SA 7----#2---out
SA 8----#8---out
SA 10---#3--64

Haw 1---#1---out
Haw 2---#3---64
Haw 3---#7---44
Haw 4---#11--scratched
Haw 6---#1---pl
Haw 8---#3---pl
Haw 9---#1---out

8/25 = +$39

Alternates:

Kee 1----#8---108
Kee 4----#8---pl
Kee 5----#10--pl
Kee 6----#9---out
Kee 8----#10--out
Kee 9----#7---pl

WO 2----#10---out
WO 6----#10---out
WO 7----#3----out
WO 8----#10---out
WO 9----#8----out
WO 10---#9----out
WO 11---#11---out

SA 2----#6---sh
SA 3----#4---40
SA 4----#1---56
SA 7----#2---out
SA 8----#8---out
SA 10---#1---64

Haw 1---#6---48
Haw 2---#6---pl
Haw 3---#4---out
Haw 4---#3---out
Haw 6---#3---40
Haw 8---#4---out
Haw 9---#9---sh

6/25 = -$144

[Aner]

I'm going to abort this study. While the MLF's I like do better than the ones I dislike, there appears to be little chance for a positive outcome. Here is a summary of all bets in the study.

Win hit rate:

Favored MLF = 34%
Disliked MLF = 22%
Alternate ML = 17%

Money Lost:

Favored MLF = -21%
Disliked MLF = -31%
Alternate ML = -17%

Hit the board (w,p or s):

Favored MLF = 68%
Disliked MLF = 60%
Alternate ML = 47%

[classhandicapper]

Most systematic studies like this wind up showing little or no value. I think this study wasn't bad at all. The horses you threw out did way worse than the ones you kept. That's already positive. Maybe you need a little more work, especially on the "alternates" to improve the ROI.

What was the criteria for throwing MLFs out?

[Half Smoke]

__________


this is an unscientific observation but anyway

years ago I had this idea that shots would be more likely to win in certain types of races

specifically I was looking at cheap maiden claimers and races with first time starters

my thinking was that with these cheap maiden claimers so often all of the horses are so bad it would be very hard to back one as a fave

my thinking was that with first time starters it would be all but impossible to name a fave since you could only rely on breeding, and jock and trainer and workouts - and to me that seems to be hardly enough




so, I looked at a couple of hundred races in each category

and I was quite surprised to find out how wrong I was

in each category the fave won about 33% just as in racing overall

so, my idea fell far short of being brilliant


.

[Aner]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Most systematic studies like this wind up showing little or no value. I think this study wasn't bad at all. The horses you threw out did way worse than the ones you kept. That's already positive. Maybe you need a little more work, especially on the "alternates" to improve the ROI.

What was the criteria for throwing MLFs out?

I tossed the MLF is it was 5 or more lengths behind the winner in both of it's last two races. I also tossed the MLF when another horse had a better finish and competed in a higher class race (last two).

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Aner

I'm going to abort this study. While the MLF's I like do better than the ones I dislike, there appears to be little chance for a positive outcome. Here is a summary of all bets in the study.

Win hit rate:

Favored MLF = 34%
Disliked MLF = 22%
Alternate ML = 17%

Money Lost:

Favored MLF = -21%
Disliked MLF = -31%
Alternate ML = -17%

Hit the board (w,p or s):

Favored MLF = 68%
Disliked MLF = 60%
Alternate ML = 47%

If you have the data, recalculate your flat bet size to proportional odds bet size. 1/(final win odds +1) and apply as your new bet size. Also, for those races you don't like the favorite, bet all the other horses proportionally

[Aner]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

If you have the data, recalculate your flat bet size to proportional odds bet size. 1/(final win odds +1) and apply as your new bet size. Also, for those races you don't like the favorite, bet all the other horses proportionally

Thank you for the intriguing suggestion.I would imagine one would have a bet $50 to $100 a race to proportionally bet all horses but one. Since I am a confirmed $2 bettor that is way beyond my comfort zone. I'll have to pass.

[eurocapper]

For every data point you use in the handicapping you lose something in the odds value. The most lucrative approach is going by intuition if you can pull it off (as actually also advocated by Dr Sartin in his paceline selection method). I also seem to recall Mr Pizzola as an advocate of this approach, perhaps like anything it's just a skill that can improve with training (and some faith). Perhaps one also needs to specialize in something.