World cup--chrome vs frosted - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

biggestal99 · 03-21-2016, 04:46 PM

Two horse race. Both off sharp local preps.

Should be a hellva good race.

I myself will take the larger price in frosted.

Allan

biggestal99 · 03-21-2016, 04:49 PM

Chrome sitting at 9-5 and frosted 5-2 on betfair.

Allan

letswastemoney · 03-21-2016, 05:13 PM

I wouldn't call it a 2-horse race, although they probably have the best chance and Americans finished 2-3-4 last year (which means even though they didn't win, they generally fared better). Need to see the other entries.

Mc990 · 03-22-2016, 05:15 PM

I'm going to take a different point of view on these two... To me, the problem with Chrome is that is that he wastes a lot of good efforts because of his affinity for racing wide. At this point, it has been well documented that he doesn't like to race inside of horses. If he is planning on getting a 3 wide trip on Saturday, he better hope, as Art Sherman said, "he's 5 lengths better" than last year.

Frosted certainly doesn't appear to want 10f. Just doesn't. Has not run a top at the distance yet (3 attempts). 9f seems to be his max distance for a peak effort.

I'm seeing 15-1, give or take, on Hoppertunity and 20-1 on Keen Ice. On their best, they are the 2 fastest horses in this race and I see one or both of these circling back to their tops.

biggestal99 · 03-22-2016, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mc990

Frosted certainly doesn't appear to want 10f. Just doesn't. Has not run a top at the distance yet (3 attempts). 9f seems to be his max distance for a peak effort.

Well he went right with the world's best dirt horse last year in the travers and raced him into defeat.

Had a nce prep in dubai.

He's sitting on a big one but so is chrome.

Doubt we see an upset.

Allan

upthecreek · 03-22-2016, 05:34 PM

https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/a...rosted-so-high

Mc990 · 03-22-2016, 05:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by biggestal99

Well he went right with the world's best dirt horse last year in the travers and raced him into defeat.

Had a nce prep in dubai.

He's sitting on a big one but so is chrome.

Doubt we see an upset.

Allan

He did go right with AP until he hung like a chandelier in the stretch and finished 3rd... If the race is 9f he may have won. For my money, he's too short a price. Best of luck

ronsmac · 03-22-2016, 06:52 PM

Every time Chrome runs, Sherman says he's doing great. Now he says he's 5 lengths better than before. His first 2 races this year suggest he's not any better. Maybe he's sitting on a big one who knows? If he's 5 lengths better than before, then he wins easily. This field is ok but not great. Frosted is the 2nd choice and he was probably the 6th or 7th best horse in training last yr. I'm just not convinced Chrome has improved by 5 lengths like Sherman suggests.

no breathalyzer · 03-22-2016, 07:45 PM

Chrome is going to win

upthecreek · 03-23-2016, 03:59 PM

Chrome drew post #11 out of 12

Mc990 · 03-23-2016, 04:21 PM

At this point I think it's inevitable that Chrome gets a wide trip in here... Are there really any serious handicappers out there willing to take 3/2 on a horse who is not any faster than 4 or 5 others and will be parked 3-4 wide??

He wasted a good effort in last years World Cup by getting hung wide and this year's field looks much more formidable

ronsmac · 03-23-2016, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mc990

At this point I think it's inevitable that Chrome gets a wide trip in here... Are there really any serious handicappers out there willing to take 3/2 on a horse who is not any faster than 4 or 5 others and will be parked 3-4 wide??

He wasted a good effort in last years World Cup by getting hung wide and this year's field looks much more formidable

It's what I'd call an ok or decent field. I don't even know if I'd even call it good. All the would be top contenders are either dead, retired or not ready to run yet. No Pharoah, Shared Belief, Liam's map, Dortmund, Firing Line,Toast of NY ,Honor Code. If Chrome can't win here with all the rave reviews Sherman has been giving him, then they should just retire him.

burnsy · 03-23-2016, 06:09 PM

Its probably not a two horse race. That's the beauty of this card. The US horses are always over bet on all surfaces but they usually do well on the dirt course. On the grass I tend to stay away from them, most years they are over matched. There are a few others coming into this race in fine form. Looking at Chrome and Frosted how can anyone possibly say they are a sure thing in this field? The horse running the best from the US is Mshawish but the distance is a question. Several foreigners including Special Fighter that could win this. If California Chrome is some ridiculous price like I think he will be....he's probably a toss for the win. This isn't the best field but its far from chop liver either and that horse has not won a big race in forever (other than a prep he hasn't won at all) while some of these others have been winning easily in bigger races. I could use him in the exacta because I can see him being beat for the win again and I don't have a ton of confidence that he can beat all of these horses. The price is almost certain to be a joke for a horse that has not done much in almost the last 18 months. I can't bet a horse like this, in a field like this, with confidence. If he loses its a going to be at a "suckers price" no doubt. No value plus a risky venture to say the least. Bet this horse at your own risk to bank roll.

dilanesp · 03-23-2016, 07:17 PM

No love here for Keen Ice?

CincyHorseplayer · 03-23-2016, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by burnsy

Its probably not a two horse race. That's the beauty of this card. The US horses are always over bet on all surfaces but they usually do well on the dirt course. On the grass I tend to stay away from them, most years they are over matched. There are a few others coming into this race in fine form. Looking at Chrome and Frosted how can anyone possibly say they are a sure thing in this field? The horse running the best from the US is Mshawish but the distance is a question. Several foreigners including Special Fighter that could win this. If California Chrome is some ridiculous price like I think he will be....he's probably a toss for the win. This isn't the best field but its far from chop liver either and that horse has not won a big race in forever (other than a prep he hasn't won at all) while some of these others have been winning easily in bigger races. I could use him in the exacta because I can see him being beat for the win again and I don't have a ton of confidence that he can beat all of these horses. The price is almost certain to be a joke for a horse that has not done much in almost the last 18 months. I can't bet a horse like this, in a field like this, with confidence. If he loses its a going to be at a "suckers price" no doubt. No value plus a risky venture to say the least. Bet this horse at your own risk to bank roll.

Burnsy like your observation here. I'm hoping to catch what I also think is a peaking Mshawish at far more than a square price here. I think ML was 14-1.