blog post with a lesson for handicappers

[dnlgfnk]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...study-you-see/

Basically, before 2000, researchers were permitted to develop their hypotheses to fit apparent patterns in the data when researching cardiovascular treatments. And they found all sorts of "patterns" which seemed significant but turned out not to be.

After 2000, they were required to state their hypothesis before testing it, and it turned out there were very few significant results.

There's an obvious lesson here for handicappers.

After interpreting thousands of races in my mental "database", in the context of public odds versus finish positions, clear patterns emerged in terms of running style, pace and position on the straightaways and turns.

I can't overcome the fear that a program would be unable to convert my subjective judgments into rankings, scores or percentages, since the variable factors and their weights change from race to race...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...81&postcount=1

...but a perceived pattern probably deserves some weighted importance, however low it may be.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

One thing I learned in my graduate studies in Social Research. "He who pays you, sways you". Remember the old debunked Food Pyramid the govt and doctors were pushing that had bread and carbs as the most important part of diet? Turns out it was based on s study paid for by the wheat industry.
We need studies but we need to learn how to interpret them.

Bet you've used that phrase on a regular basis since those days.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by dnlgfnk

After interpreting thousands of races in my mental "database", in the context of public odds versus finish positions, clear patterns emerged in terms of running style, pace and position on the straightaways and turns.

I can't overcome the fear that a program would be unable to convert my subjective judgments into rankings, scores or percentages, since the variable factors and their weights change from race to race...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...81&postcount=1

...but a perceived pattern probably deserves some weighted importance, however low it may be.

Interesting post. Missed or forgotten the link with your reasoning.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

Funny how you can use a swear word but I get a red flag for that

Nobody (including you) would get a red card for posting "shit from Shinola"

You did not get a red card for using the word shit.

Try again.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Bet you've used that phrase on a regular basis since those days.

Not doing it to brag. Just explaining the source of my information. So you know were I'm coming from.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Bet you've used that phrase on a regular basis since those days.

Just as appropriate as someone citing their experience as a trainer, handicapper, race caller, etc, if relevant to the thread.