A Critique of Speed: Fallacies in Creating Accurate Speed Figures

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Tom

When is the last time a track added Trakus?
Isn't that pretty gone the way of poly tracks?

Not that Trakus is a very good product to begin with, as we have
seen with all the problems they continue to have.

You will never see it at all tracks, so you will always have a mix of beam, Trakus and GPS as worst case.

So now your precision is out the window.

The best bet for racing is to clone CJ! Seems he has abilities far beyond the industry has ever shown - competence.

Oh Tom! Now you’ve done it!

You’ve just popped Bob’s high-tech bubble solution to all of this!

Looks like everyone is still in the same boat.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Tom

When is the last time a track added Trakus?
Isn't that pretty gone the way of poly tracks?

Not that Trakus is a very good product to begin with, as we have
seen with all the problems they continue to have.

You will never see it at all tracks, so you will always have a mix of beam, Trakus and GPS as worst case.

So now your precision is out the window.

The best bet for racing is to clone CJ! Seems he has abilities far beyond the industry has ever shown - competence.

But Tom, as Nitro has so kindly informed us (note the sarcasm). Anyone depending on the accuracy of speed figures, including cj's) believes a fallacy that they are accurate. So I guess cj has you fooled about the inaccurate product he produces.

[bobphilo]

Nitro, my bubble is unpopped.

I have always found the info I get from Trakus useful, especially for ground loss. Yes, a couple of track have had some technical problems but you have to expect that from such a new radical technology?

TPD is the next generation in this technology because it uses the same satellite system used by GPS and the military. Not subject to cell phone interference.

You still have not been able to poke holes in cj' figure making accuracy as he gets precise times using video replays

In any case, you have not proven your statement that speed figures are inaccurate. They are accurate enough for a good handicapper to make good selections. You cannot argue with their success if used properly.

Could that explain your anti-figure campaign? Just because you did so poorly using speed figures does not mean that someone who uses them correctly won't find them accurate enough. As they say, "A poor worker always blames his tools".

[thaskalos]

Any handicapping tool that allows the player to further his understanding of the game has to be considered USEFUL...and it can never be called unnecessary or irrelevant. To me, the speed figures and the sectional pace ratings supply information without which I as a handicapper would be -- for lack of a better word -- HANDICAPPED...so, they are vital for the work that I do as a horseplayer. If other horseplayers find these figures to be useless, then they are free to discard them as handicapping options...without feeling the need to denigrate their use in an attempt to somehow prove that they have invented a "better mousetrap" for themselves.

This game offers a varied menu...enough to satisfy a great variety of handicapping appetites.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Any handicapping tool that allows the player to further his understanding of the game has to be considered USEFUL...and it can never be called unnecessary or irrelevant. To me, the speed figures and the sectional pace ratings supply information without which I as a handicapper would be -- for lack of a better word -- HANDICAPPED...so, they are vital for the work that I do as a horseplayer. If other horseplayers find these figures to be useless, then they are free to discard them as handicapping options...without feeling the need to denigrate their use in an attempt to somehow prove that they have invented a "better mousetrap" for themselves.

This game offers a varied menu...enough to satisfy a great variety of handicapping appetites.

Well said. Probably the best post on this thread, including my own.

[classhandicapper]

I'm still a fan of Trakus despite the occasional malfunctions and inaccuracies. I don't care much about the times. However, if you do trips and ground loss; it helps you picture how the race was run before you even watch the replay.

If you look at the 1/2 mile point you'll get an approximate picture of the 1st turn in routes and then if you look at the final call you'll get a picture of the overall race. Then when you watch the replay and head on you already more or less know where horses were at various points and you can take notes faster and more accurately.

If some of the horses are off the screen on the turn because they are far back, you can at least make an educated guess as to how wide they were even if you can't see them.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm still a fan of Trakus despite the occasional malfunctions and inaccuracies. I don't care much about the times. However, if you do trips and ground loss; it helps you picture how the race was run before you even watch the replay.

If you look at the 1/2 mile point you'll get an approximate picture of the 1st turn in routes and then if you look at the final call you'll get a picture of the overall race. Then when you watch the replay and head on you already more or less know where horses were at various points and you can take notes faster and more accurately.

If some of the horses are off the screen on the turn because they are far back, you can at least make an educated guess as to how wide they were even if you can't see them.

This time, I'm glad to say that I agree with you completely. I like to use Trakus, especially for ground loss. Just divide the Delta number by 8 and you have the extra lengths run. The MPH figure tells you who really ran the fastest splits and best race timewise. I also like the aerial view which is the best way to see troubled trips. Much like the aerial views they used to do from the blimp. Even if the horses far back are off the screen you still get their ground loss and MPH.

It's true that I've heard of some problems with the technology but one has to consider the tremendous amount of information Trakus is dealing with. This is the first attempt at such an ambitious goal.

I think the next generation in accurate timing will be with TPD (Total Performance Data) which some N.American tracks are already using. It is easier and cheaper for a track to set up since they don't have to put sensors around the track but uses satellite GPS technology and are not affected by cell phone microwaves. They can also time workouts, which are now notoriously inaccurately hand timed.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

But Tom, as Nitro has so kindly informed us (note the sarcasm). Anyone depending on the accuracy of speed figures, including cj's) believes a fallacy that they are accurate. So I guess cj has you fooled about the inaccurate product he produces.

CJ is the ONLY one who has offered PROOF, not OPINION about race times.

1 guy.
From this board.
Setting a standard the entire industry has no hope of ever meeting.

Pretty amazing and pretty sad at the same time.

We are lucky CJ chooses to use his powers for good!!

[AndyC]

If I am a consistent winner using speed figures derived from fallacious information should I stop using the speed figures?

[JJMartin]

Are those TFUS race files available in spreadsheet format yet?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by AndyC

If I am a consistent winner using speed figures derived from fallacious information should I stop using the speed figures?

Depends on what your goal is, to win races or make perfect
figures.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

If I am a consistent winner using speed figures derived from fallacious information should I stop using the speed figures?

Yes. You should stop using them in anticipation that this fortuitous trend will soon reverse...as all fortuitous trends must.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Tom

Depends on what your goal is, to win races or make perfect
figures.

I would guess that if perfect figures were made available to all bettors tomorrow that the bettors currently losing today would still be losing tomorrow.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by Tom

Depends on what your goal is, to win races or make perfect
figures.

Doesn't the latter help you do the former?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I would guess that if perfect figures were made available to all bettors tomorrow that the bettors currently losing today would still be losing tomorrow.

Yes...but they would be losing SCIENTIFICALLY.