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View Poll Results: Who wins HOY? Accelerate or Justify?
Accelerate wins HOY 119 42.35%
Justify wins HOY 162 57.65%
Voters: 281. This poll is closed

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Old 11-14-2018, 08:25 PM   #106
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Old 11-15-2018, 02:15 PM   #107
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So, does Accelerate run another race to make the HOY year even tighter? Maybe on the Turf?

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Old 11-15-2018, 10:49 PM   #108
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I'd vote for Accelerate.

I didn't find Justify very impressive. Triple Crown winner or not, I envision the two in a head-to-head and Accelerate whips him easy. That's what HOY is about. Who is the best horse of the year. Justify was only the best of his division, and he'll get the divisional award for that.
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:25 AM   #109
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That's what HOY is about. Who is the best horse of the year.
Actually, the only criteria is that a horse start at least once in North America. Turf horses have won it, injured 3yos that retired after the Belmont have won it, and dominant 2yos have won it.

As opposed to relying on a hypothetical head-to-head model, one could just as easily base it on the most impressive performance or "body of work".

Justify certainly fits the latter scheme, winning 6 races (from scratch) in the span of 110 days or so. In that time frame he won races from 7 furlongs to 12 furlongs. He was unbeaten. He won over 6 different distances. He won sprinting and routing. He won on fast tracks and off tracks. He won over 4 different racetracks in 4 states. He won the Triple Crown, only the 13th horse to do so in history. He's the only horse to have done so without starting as a 2yo.

3yos are rarely pitted against their elders until the fall, and Justify didn't make it to that part of the year due to injury. Rather than try and match him up to a 5yo Accelerate, an honest comparison to put Justify's accomplishments in perspective is to compare him to the 3yo Accelerate. Like Justify, Accelerate was also a late starting 3yo. He was a still a maiden after 3 starts during the 2016 Triple Crown.

Justify progressed at a phenomenal rate to make it to (and win) the Belmont Stakes. Accelerate's progression once he broke his maiden (July 2016) was impressive, too, as he finished out his 3yo campaign running 3rd in the BC Dirt Mile (a neck behind a likewise progressive Gun Runner), but it was not in the same stratosphere as Justify's...

As a 5yo, Accelerate won 4 races at Santa Anita, 1 at Del Mar, and won 1 of 2 starts on the road. The BC Classic this year was a modest bunch at best, with the 2nd and 3rd choices in the race being 3yos. Overall, the older horse division was underwhelming throughout the year.

The long and the short of it is that Justify one-upped all of US horse racing history by making his debut in February and carting off the Triple Crown barely 4 months later.

Accelerate--at best--one-upped Lava Man by taking the BC Classic at Churchill Downs after winning everything in California.
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:50 AM   #110
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Which horse will be remembered 5/10/15 or 20 years from now.



That should be your vote.
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Old 11-16-2018, 01:30 AM   #111
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
Actually, the only criteria is that a horse start at least once in North America. Turf horses have won it, injured 3yos that retired after the Belmont have won it, and dominant 2yos have won it.

As opposed to relying on a hypothetical head-to-head model, one could just as easily base it on the most impressive performance or "body of work".

Justify certainly fits the latter scheme, winning 6 races (from scratch) in the span of 110 days or so. In that time frame he won races from 7 furlongs to 12 furlongs. He was unbeaten. He won over 6 different distances. He won sprinting and routing. He won on fast tracks and off tracks. He won over 4 different racetracks in 4 states. He won the Triple Crown, only the 13th horse to do so in history. He's the only horse to have done so without starting as a 2yo.

3yos are rarely pitted against their elders until the fall, and Justify didn't make it to that part of the year due to injury. Rather than try and match him up to a 5yo Accelerate, an honest comparison to put Justify's accomplishments in perspective is to compare him to the 3yo Accelerate. Like Justify, Accelerate was also a late starting 3yo. He was a still a maiden after 3 starts during the 2016 Triple Crown.

Justify progressed at a phenomenal rate to make it to (and win) the Belmont Stakes. Accelerate's progression once he broke his maiden (July 2016) was impressive, too, as he finished out his 3yo campaign running 3rd in the BC Dirt Mile (a neck behind a likewise progressive Gun Runner), but it was not in the same stratosphere as Justify's...

As a 5yo, Accelerate won 4 races at Santa Anita, 1 at Del Mar, and won 1 of 2 starts on the road. The BC Classic this year was a modest bunch at best, with the 2nd and 3rd choices in the race being 3yos. Overall, the older horse division was underwhelming throughout the year.

The long and the short of it is that Justify one-upped all of US horse racing history by making his debut in February and carting off the Triple Crown barely 4 months later.

Accelerate--at best--one-upped Lava Man by taking the BC Classic at Churchill Downs after winning everything in California.
You actually think that a hypothetical match-up between the top two candidates, who shared the same distance and surface preferences, in the year of their candidacy, is a bad idea? And that the good idea is to compare the two when they were the same age but in different years?

Um, no. I don't really care when Justify started his career except in the sense that it added to the brevity of it. That he started so late and did what he did in the space of a few months just showed there wasn't much out there challenging him. Or that perhaps he was being given the same stuff that made Arrogate so great for a similar period of time before he was likewise done.
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Old 11-16-2018, 01:45 AM   #112
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Um, no. I don't really care when Justify started his career except in the sense that it added to the brevity of it. That he started so late and did what he did in the space of a few months just showed there wasn't much out there challenging him. Or that perhaps he was being given the same stuff that made Arrogate so great for a similar period of time before he was likewise done.
"Given the same stuff"??…...You're Trashing two horses like Arrogate and Justify because you dislike Baffert?

Not even a remotely sane opinion Sport, get it fixed...
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Old 11-16-2018, 01:59 AM   #113
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Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post
Which horse will be remembered 5/10/15 or 20 years from now.



That should be your vote.
Amen to that. Both horses are awesome, but, when in the world (more than not likely in most of our lifetimes) are you "ever" going to see what Justify accomplished in the manner that he did... The Triple Crown of 2018 was truly a Wow series of races in every sense of the word.
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Old 11-16-2018, 02:10 AM   #114
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You actually think that a hypothetical match-up between the top two candidates, who shared the same distance and surface preferences, in the year of their candidacy, is a bad idea?
Didn't go that far. I simply said, realistically, you don't see 3yos face their elders in the spring, and that's as far as Justify got in the season, so its hard to balance a hypothetical matchup between the two.

Quote:
And that the good idea is to compare the two when they were the same age but in different years?
Again, it puts Justify's performance in perspective. I could have picked from thousands of similar historical late starters, but Accelerate was a fairly convenient foil.

Quote:
Um, no. I don't really care when Justify started his career except in the sense that it added to the brevity of it.
Pulling off something that hadn't been done in 136 years does hold water for some people...

Quote:
That he started so late and did what he did in the space of a few months just showed there wasn't much out there challenging him.
At the same time, Accelerate doing what he did (ringing up accolades in CA races-of-former-glory), is tempered by the fact that he skipped out on the Pegasus, the Dubai World Cup, and a sweet spot of racing between June and August (Met Mile, Stephen Foster, Whitney, etc.) that probably would have made him a more legitimate threat to the Triple Crown winner for HOY honors.

Quote:
Or that perhaps he was being given the same stuff that made Arrogate so great for a similar period of time before he was likewise done.
Now we are getting into some of the underlying bias behind your opinion. A couple others here have admitted the same.

Meanwhile, Accelerate's trainer is no stranger to "edge taking"... and its on record. He had nearly half (16) of the 38 steroid positives among all California trainers in July 2008 (and got 4 more a month later) when anabolic regulations were first implemented, avoiding harsh punishment only because of a "phase in" period. It netted him a training title at the Del Mar meet with a ~30 % win rate.
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Old 11-16-2018, 03:22 AM   #115
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Originally Posted by ReplayRandall View Post
"Given the same stuff"??…...You're Trashing two horses like Arrogate and Justify because you dislike Baffert?

Not even a remotely sane opinion Sport, get it fixed...
Like you’ve never heard this opinion before, Sport?

When a trainer has 7 horses drop dead on the track for no explicable reason, then that’s on him, not the people who are able to add 2 plus 2.
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Old 11-16-2018, 03:32 AM   #116
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Spalding, not being ABLE to run after June of his 3yo year is on the horse. That's a defect, a flaw. In fact it's why he didn't run at 2 either.

I just didn't find the horse impressive. Baffert also trained Pharoah, but I still respected the obvious talent of that horse, so it's not nearly as much about the trainer as you want to think. AP was my choice for HOY, but not Justify.

I wouldn't touch this guy in the breeding shed either. Don't exactly want his fragile genes passed down.
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Old 11-16-2018, 10:05 AM   #117
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Spalding, not being ABLE to run after June of his 3yo year is on the horse. That's a defect, a flaw. In fact it's why he didn't run at 2 either.
I certainly don't want to give credit to Justify for retiring early. I'm only saying that because of that turn of events a hypothetical matchup (based on speed figures or what have you) is not practical or even fair.

In my opinion, its more appropriate to compare their individual campaigns within their respective divisions. Accelerate was 6 for 7, which holds up well, but he took a near 3-month break in the middle of the year and thus made just one more start than Justify. Also, as previously mentioned, he missed some important races against important rivals, in particular in-form Gun Runner and West Coast.

Justify achieved the highest goal of all male 3yos in the US. Like it or not, the classics are the pinnacle of the sport in basically all jurisdictions around the world. To dismiss them as merely "restricted" races (not saying you did) is disingenuous.

Quote:
I just didn't find the horse impressive. Baffert also trained Pharoah, but I still respected the obvious talent of that horse, so it's not nearly as much about the trainer as you want to think. AP was my choice for HOY, but not Justify.

I wouldn't touch this guy in the breeding shed either. Don't exactly want his fragile genes passed down.
I would attribute at least some of Justify's physical woes to being put through the wringer to make the Kentucky Derby (and beyond) and not solely from some inherent "china doll" syndrome. If the latter was the case, I doubt he would have held up through the whole Triple Crown.

And while I don't think he had a "fake" injury as has been alleged elsewhere, it sounds as though the horse could have returned as a 4yo if desired. However, we'd probably be looking at another abbreviated 4yo campaign a la Sunday Silence and Easy Goer, both of whom had ankle issues at the end of their admittedly more arduous campaigns. So some of the backlash for retiring is not particularly warranted either.
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Old 11-16-2018, 10:32 AM   #118
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This debate has been going on for a long time. If the Horse of the Year is supposed to be the fastest horse (at a classic distance), the champion older male would win most of the time. Now, it does seem like the older male is typically under consideration or arguably its for him to lose, but voters have been fairly open to the idea that it's more subjective than that.

A prime example is Zenyatta in 2010. Blame was the fastest on the track, but no one expected 60 Minutes to do a segment on Blame and voters (partially as payback for 2009) saw Zenyatta as the horse who defined that year. Some have suggested that it's who is most memorable, and that may not be such a bad definition.

Fager Fan, I'm very sympathetic to your stance on certain trainers. However, would you vote for anyone other than Justify as the champion three-year-old male? I'm suspecting not. For Horse of the Year, I think you too see it being more subjective, and whether it's his fragility, his trainer, or whatever, he doesn't deserve the title. It's a gut feeling and you're entitled to it. On the flip side, hopefully you can see the argument that the Triple Crown is of such importance, the fact he was undefeated, and that he was able to overcome Mike Smith, that some people would feel that makes Justify horse of the year over a horse who had a middle to above average older male campaign.

I would probably vote for Justify and suspect he will win, but it's interesting to see how many people are opposed to him. My feeling is that the biggest reason for it is that people want to punish early retirement, and I understand that too. It's been pointed out that Seattle Slew and Affirmed didn't do much the remainder of the year after their Belmont wins and still were voted Horse of the Year, and worse yet, Slew beat Affirmed twice and still didn't get the honors because of the value placed on the Triple Crown win.
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Old 11-16-2018, 11:46 AM   #119
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Didn't go that far. I simply said, realistically, you don't see 3yos face their elders in the spring, and that's as far as Justify got in the season, so its hard to balance a hypothetical matchup between the two.


Again, it puts Justify's performance in perspective. I could have picked from thousands of similar historical late starters, but Accelerate was a fairly convenient foil.


Pulling off something that hadn't been done in 136 years does hold water for some people...


At the same time, Accelerate doing what he did (ringing up accolades in CA races-of-former-glory), is tempered by the fact that he skipped out on the Pegasus, the Dubai World Cup, and a sweet spot of racing between June and August (Met Mile, Stephen Foster, Whitney, etc.) that probably would have made him a more legitimate threat to the Triple Crown winner for HOY honors.


Now we are getting into some of the underlying bias behind your opinion. A couple others here have admitted the same.

Meanwhile, Accelerate's trainer is no stranger to "edge taking"... and its on record. He had nearly half (16) of the 38 steroid positives among all California trainers in July 2008 (and got 4 more a month later) when anabolic regulations were first implemented, avoiding harsh punishment only because of a "phase in" period. It netted him a training title at the Del Mar meet with a ~30 % win rate.
Spalding, the Stephen Foster was won by Pavel, a horse Accelerate repeatedly crushed. I hardly think Accelerate needed to run there to prove anything.
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Old 11-16-2018, 12:31 PM   #120
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Excerpt:

“I might have missed it, but I haven't seen any story that pointed out that Accelerate, in winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic, hit a major milestone--winning four Grade 1 races at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt in a single year.

“Winning the Triple Crown is supposed to be one of the toughest achievements in horse racing, right ?

“Well, since the graded-race era began in 1973, there've been five Triple Crown winners.

“The number of horses that have won four Grade 1, mile and one-quarter races on dirt in a single year is only four.


“It might seem like a fairly unacknowledged accomplishment, but maybe it shouldn't be. Grade 1 races are the ultimate goal for any horse, and one mile and one-quarter on the dirt is still the classic distance in American racing and will remain so (because of the Kentucky Derby and the BC Classic) no matter how much money is thrown at turf races or nine-furlong dirt races (sorry Pegasus).

“Affirmed did it in 1979 winning the Strub, the Santa Anita Handicap, the Hollywood Gold Cup and the Woodward.

“Alysheba did it five times in 1988, opening his 4-year-old season with the Strub and the Big 'Cap and ending it with the Woodward, the Meadowlands Cup and the BC Classic.

“Cigar in 1995 won the Gulfstream Park Handicap, the Hollywood Gold Cup, the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the BC Classic.

“And now Accelerate has joined the club.

“The list of top horses that ran in the graded-stakes era but didn't hit the magic number of four includes Alydar, Forego, Spectacular Bid, Easy Goer, John Henry, Sunday Silence, Holy Bull, A.P. Indy, Best Pal, Skip Away, Curlin, Ghostzapper and Tiznow as well as Secretariat, Seattle Slew and the two most recent Triple Crown winners.

“Looking back through the DRF Champions book, the only pre-graded stakes horses I could find that probably would have been credited with four Grade 1 10-furlong wins in a year were Gun Bow in 1964 (Strub, Gulfstream Park Handicap, Brooklyn Handicap and Woodward) and Round Table in 1958 (SA Maturity, SA Handicap, Gulfstream Park Handicap and Woodward).

“Those that didn't make the list included Kelso, Dr. Fager, Damascus, Buckpasser, Sword Dancer, Bold Ruler, Swaps, Nashua, Citation and Seabiscuit.”

Interesting stats to chew on.
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