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10-30-2018, 10:14 AM
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#1
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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357 RACE STUDY
357 RACES
WITHOUT ANY CONDITIONS
2ND RANK HORSE, 20% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.77
3RD RANK HORES, 13% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.73
WITH MY CONDITIONS
2ND RANK HORES, 176 BETS, 26% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.98
3RD RANK HORES, 67 BETS, 28% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $1.35
COMBINED $1 RETURN OF $1.07
I'M STILL WORKING ON GETTING FAVORABLE RESULTS FOR THE 1ST AND 3RD RANKED HORSES
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-31-2018, 06:52 PM
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#2
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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I HAVE YET TO UPDATE THE DATABASE, BUT IN THE LAST 2 DAY, WON ONLY 2 OF 16 RACES
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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10-31-2018, 08:11 PM
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#3
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
I HAVE YET TO UPDATE THE DATABASE, BUT IN THE LAST 2 DAY, WON ONLY 2 OF 16 RACES
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boy, did I pull that one out
now counted 5 wins in the last 20 races for a $1 return of $1.06
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-03-2018, 11:36 AM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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That's impressive, but you are going to need a much larger sample. I did two recent studies that were profitable with spot plays covering much larger samples (not with longshots) that fell apart the next year. Overall the result are still good, but when things fall apart you can't tell if the early part of the sample was a fluke or the current part of the sample is a fluke.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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11-03-2018, 12:17 PM
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#5
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,869
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Tell me about it.
I had a spot play that was profitable every week for three months!
Hitting 29% winners and ROI of 1.21.
Then I started posting the pick here and went 0-33!
I believe a winning ticket is nothing more than a set up to kill you at some later date!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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11-03-2018, 10:06 PM
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#6
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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I agree with both of you, and that is why I have not made a serious bet in about 10 years. but I have fun keeping score .
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-08-2018, 09:59 PM
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#7
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
357 RACES
WITHOUT ANY CONDITIONS
2ND RANK HORSE, 20% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.77
3RD RANK HORES, 13% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.73
WITH MY CONDITIONS
2ND RANK HORES, 176 BETS, 26% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $0.98
3RD RANK HORES, 67 BETS, 28% WINNERS, $1 RETURN OF $1.35
COMBINED $1 RETURN OF $1.07
I'M STILL WORKING ON GETTING FAVORABLE RESULTS FOR THE 1ST AND 3RD RANKED HORSES
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I NOW HAVE 414 RACES IN THE DATA BASE
THE 3RD RANK HORSES ARE PERFORMING THE BEST
THERE ARE NOW 75 CONDITIONAL RACES FOR THE 3RD RANK HORSE.
22 WINS, "BET SIZE" $1 RETURN IS $1.33
$1 FLAT BET RETURN IS $1.43
I ALSO HAVE 20 CONDITIONAL RACES NOT ENTERED INTO THE DATA BASE.
6 WINS
$1 FLAT BET RETURN $1.62
STILL LOOKING FOR OTHER OPPORTUNITIES
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 11-08-2018 at 10:02 PM.
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11-09-2018, 01:39 PM
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#8
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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HERE IS THE PLAY I HAVE BEEN POSTING RECENTLY IN THE SELECTION FORUM.
I LAY THE TOP RANK HORSE
PLAY AN EXACTA, ALL/ 2ND HORSE
PLAY THE 3RD RANK TO WIN.
IN THIS PARTICULAR RACE, THE 2ND RANKED PLACED.
MY $1 EXACTA RETURN (PLAYS NOT SHOWN HERE) WAS $4.22
THE PLACE PRICE ON THE 2ND RANK WAS ONLY $2.70
THIS IS A 156% ADVANTAGE OVER THE PLACE PRICE, RATHER THAN WHAT COULD BE A 15 %TO 18% LOSS ON A PLACE BET
WHAT IS NOT FACTORED IN HERE, IS THE PLACE DISADVANTAGE TO THE 2ND RANKED WINNING
DATA, DATA DATA
THE LAY PLAYS ARE DOING VERY WELL, AND MOST OF THEM ARE THE POSTIME FAVORITE.. THEY ONLY WON 5 OF 23 PLAYS
THE $1 WIN PAYS WERE;
$2.15
$2.05
$1.90
$3.20
$2.00
TOTAL PAY OUT + SAY %10 BONUS =$12.43, GIVING ME A PROFIT OF $10.57.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-12-2018, 09:07 AM
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#9
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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SINCE THE LAST REPORT
17 ADDITIONAL "CONDITIONAL" 3RD RANK PLAYS WITH 0 WINS.
"COLLECTED" ON TEH LAY BET 14 TIMES
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-13-2018, 09:51 AM
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#10
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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thought this analysis would be of interest.
from the selections forum
uk Lingfield race 4 11-13-2018
that worked out well
betfair largest lay pool would require a $1 win return of $2.81
the horse went off at $2.20.
I estimate I would collect on a lay bet 80% on the time, my advantage, without adjusting for the various final odds would be 1.25 time the final odds.
2.20x 1.25 = $2.75 my maximum payout to break even
I need to add 1 additional column to the matrix information, that would be, how much to bet on all the horses other than the top pick
in this case the #1 horse won. my return would be $1.35, exceeding my required minimum return
the 1/5 exacta won, paying $27.60 on the dollar, my return would be $3.66.
not certain what my min $1 return for this play is just yet. have not reviewed but 22 races, 11 of which won.. that seems like too high a success rate.
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-18-2018, 04:24 PM
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#11
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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THIS INVESTIGATION HAS TURNED INTO A LAY BET PLAY. BASED ON THE DATABASE DATA, I HAVE BEEN ABLE TO POST 20 WINNING LAY BETS IN 27 RACES FOR A $1216 PROFIT LESS 12% COMMISSION (BETFAIR RATE)
MOST IF NOT ALL LAY BETS ARE THE POST TIME FAVORITE OR SECOND FAVORITE
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-21-2018, 04:04 PM
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#12
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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HERE IS AN UP DATE
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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