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11-11-2018, 05:18 PM
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#1
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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DMR Late Pick 4
$16.50 PK4 ABC 7,2,4/4,5,6/2,3,8/1,9,2
The 'A' horses are 7,4,8, and 2 respectively.
This means that if any two of the 'A' horses win, and I hit my backups in the other races, I win.
Instead of a $40.50 cent bet I made this $16.50 cent bet.
Last edited by Buckeye; 11-11-2018 at 05:21 PM.
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11-15-2018, 03:40 PM
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#2
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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11/15/18
$24 PK4 ABC 2,4,6,9/7,1,5/7,2,5,8/2,1,8
The 'A' horses are marked in red.
If any two (or more) of the 'A' horses win, and I hit any of the backups in the other races, I win.
Instead of a $72 bet I made this $24 bet.
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11-15-2018, 03:51 PM
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#3
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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Please note, there 11 separate tickets involved here . . .
0.50 PK4 2/7/7/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4,6,9/7/7/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/1,5/7/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/7/2,5,8/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/7/7/1,8
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4,6,9/1,5/7/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4,6,9/7/2,5,8/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4,6,9/7/7/1,8
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/1,5/2,5,8/2
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/1,5/7/1,8
Cancel
0.50 PK4 2/7/2,5,8/1,8
Cancel
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11-15-2018, 05:51 PM
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#4
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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That wasn't good.
Bad handicapping hurts every time.
But since I have money to burn, I'll make an ABC bet on the last three races in an attempt to get my money back.
$12 PK3 ABC 7,1,5/7,2,5,8/2,1,8
In this case, only 1 'A' is necessary.
$12 bet vs. $18 bet.
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11-15-2018, 05:54 PM
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#5
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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7 Separate Tickets:
0.50 PK3 7/7/2
Cancel
0.50 PK3 1,5/7/2
Cancel
0.50 PK3 7/2,5,8/2
Cancel
0.50 PK3 7/7/1,8
Cancel
0.50 PK3 1,5/2,5,8/2
Cancel
0.50 PK3 1,5/7/1,8
Cancel
0.50 PK3 7/2,5,8/1,8
Cancel
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11-15-2018, 06:07 PM
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#6
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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At least I'm "alive" but no 'A' yet.
Last edited by Buckeye; 11-15-2018 at 06:11 PM.
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11-15-2018, 06:43 PM
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#7
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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The 6 wins Race 7.
Bad handicapping almost always leads to poor results.
Should have gone back one or two races on the 6
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11-16-2018, 03:59 PM
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#8
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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11/16/18
I actually "handicapped" these races.
$16.50 PK4 ABC 4,6,8/4,6,9/7,4,6/1,3,5
11 separate tickets:
0.50 PK4 4/4/7/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6,8/4/7/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6,9/7/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/4,6/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/7/3,5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6,8/6,9/7/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6,8/4/4,6/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6,8/4/7/3,5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6,9/4,6/1
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6,9/7/3,5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/4,6/3,5
Cancel
That's 33 combinations vs. 81.
Remember, 2A's must win.
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11-17-2018, 12:57 PM
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#9
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Mutuel Fund Investor
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Southern California
Posts: 5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye
$16.50 PK4 ABC 7,2,4/4,5,6/2,3,8/1,9,2
The 'A' horses are 7,4,8, and 2 respectively.
This means that if any two of the 'A' horses win, and I hit my backups in the other races, I win.
Instead of a $40.50 cent bet I made this $16.50 cent bet.
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Just wondering how you come up with $16.50 if you bet every possible combination in which 2 "A" horses are singled. As I see it, there would be a total of 6 combinations, each costing $4.50, for a total of $27.
7 / 4 / 2,3,8 / 1,9,2
7 / 4,5,6 / 8 / 1,9,2
7 / 4,5,6 / 2,3,8 / 2
7,2,4 / 4 / 8 / 1,9,2
7,2,4 / 4 / 2,3,8 / 2
7,2,4 / 4,5,6 / 8 / 2
Alternatively, you could bet only the backups on the non-key legs, in which case you would have a total of 24 combinations (4 per ticket), for a total cost of $12.
I'm just curious as to how you arrived at $16.50.
__________________
To prophesy is difficult, especially with respect to the future. ~Chinese proverb
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11-17-2018, 03:49 PM
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#10
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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11/17/18
$17.50 PK4 ABC 6,3,4,7/8,1,5,7/3,5,6/6,1,3
Looks like we have 13 separate tickets here.
0.50 PK4 6/8/3/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 3,4/8/3/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/1,5/3/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/8/5,6/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/8/3/1,3
Cancel
0.50 PK4 3,4/1,5/3/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 3,4/8/5,6/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 3,4/8/3/1,3
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/1,5/5,6/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/1,5/3/1,3
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/8/5,6/1,3
Cancel
0.50 PK4 7/8/3/6
Cancel
0.50 PK4 6/7/3/6
The 'A' horses are green and the 'C' horses are red.
35 combinations instead of 144.
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11-17-2018, 04:11 PM
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#11
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillC
I'm just curious as to how you arrived at $16.50.
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Please see the bet structure above and count up the combinations.
Yesterday, there were 33 vs. 3 X 3 X 3 X 3 which equals 81.
33 X fifty cents = $16.50
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11-18-2018, 05:04 PM
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#12
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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11/18/18
These Pick 4's are not easy!
Consider this, given a 50% chance of hitting one race with multiple selections, raise that by a power of 4 and you get 6 and 1/4th percent chance of success . . .
Nevertheless,
$28.50 PK4 ABC 4,1,8/4,6-8/2-4,5/1,3,7,5
Any 2 of the green horses must win and hit somebody listed in the other 2.
Bet cost is $28.50 rather than $96 if you bet it 3 X 4 X 4 X 4
11 Separate Tickets:
0.50 PK4 4/4/2-4/1,3,7
Cancel
0.50 PK4 1,8/4/5/1,3,7
Cancel
0.50 PK4 1,8/4/2-4/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/2-4/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6-8/5/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/5/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 1,8/4/5/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/4/5/1,3,7
Cancel
0.50 PK4 1,8/6-8/5/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6-8/2-4/5
Cancel
0.50 PK4 4/6-8/5/1,3,7
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11-18-2018, 07:39 PM
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#13
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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I don't think I should have bet $96 to win $124.15 in my opinion.
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11-22-2018, 03:26 PM
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#14
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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11/22/18
$23.50 PK4 ABC 4,3,5/3,6,7/2,4,6/6,2,5,8,12
Any 2 Green horses must win.
11 Separate Tickets:
Cost: $23.50
0.50 PK4 4/3/2/6
0.50 PK4 3,5/3/2/6
0.50 PK4 4/6,7/2/6
0.50 PK4 4/3/4,6/6
0.50 PK4 4/3/2/2,5,8,12
0.50 PK4 3,5/6,7/2/6
0.50 PK4 3,5/3/4,6/6
0.50 PK4 3,5/3/2/2,5,8,12
0.50 PK4 4/6,7/4,6/6
0.50 PK4 4/6,7/2/2,5,8,12
0.50 PK4 4/3/4,6/2,5,8,12
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11-22-2018, 04:58 PM
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#15
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Smarty Pants
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Every Vote Counts
Posts: 3,160
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I gotta do something, so I'll bet a 60/40 Dutch bet in race 7.
$6 to win 4
$4 to win 6
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