Questions about Firenze Fire/Jason Servis

[cj]

If I were going to bet 60k on a horse at the track I'd do it early to discourage late money from the teams. But what do I know.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

If I were going to bet 60k on a horse at the track I'd do it early to discourage late money from the teams. But what do I know.

It probably also discourages a lot of regular players.

One the flip side, when I see a lot of early money I don't understand (in either direction) I pay closer attention. I never tracked it, but just based on experience a lot of those horses are either more live or more dead than I thought depending on which way the unexpected early money went.

[metro]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Also a large rebate, on a large bet. Simple. Only suckers bet at the track

Tracks give out rebates too, or at least some of them.

[metro]

Originally Posted by papillon

There is good discussion on this over at Thorograph.

The $60k was 12 $5k bets made at the track at 0 MTP.

One of the guys over there has been in touch with NYRA and apparently the gaming commision is looking into it.

The same source of the 60K could have contributed to the late action in the exacta pool as well, hope the gaming commission looks into that. They should be able to trace any wager in the tote system, regardless if it was on track, simulcast, ADW or CRW.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by cj

If I were going to bet 60k on a horse at the track I'd do it early to discourage late money from the teams. But what do I know.

I would guess the on-track bettor is not a savvy, rebate, computer type player but an old school horse person that only knows the horse is going to win. The old school theory is you bet a horse at the last second to not signify the horse is live and bring other money onto it. I doubt that person is factoring in robotic wagering.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

I would guess the on-track bettor is not a savvy, rebate, computer type player but an old school horse person that only knows the horse is going to win. The old school theory is you bet a horse at the last second to not signify the horse is live and bring other money onto it. I doubt that person is factoring in robotic wagering.

If you're an old school horse person that KNOWS the horse is going to win, why the heck would you wait until the LAST SECOND and risk getting SHUT OUT by a slow teller, or some other unforeseen circumstance?

No way a person like that waits until 0mtp to bet. They send it in gradually or they bet it all early on...no way they wait until the last minute to send it all in.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

If you're an old school horse person that KNOWS the horse is going to win, why the heck would you wait until the LAST SECOND and risk getting SHUT OUT by a slow teller, or some other unforeseen circumstance?

No way a person like that waits until 0mtp to bet. They send it in gradually or they bet it all early on...no way they wait until the last minute to send it all in.

If you're standing at the window watching the horses load, your chances of getting shut out are zero.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Track Phantom

If you're standing at the window watching the horses load, your chances of getting shut out are zero.

Not at all. When I used to bet at the windows at the track, I used to do just that and got shut out more than a few times. All it takes is one slow-poke making his exacta picks in line and one union teller who could give a crap about my bet.

I bowed to the ATMs and now I stay home and curse Twin Spires on my slow XP.

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Tom

Not at all. When I used to bet at the windows at the track, I used to do just that and got shut out more than a few times. All it takes is one slow-poke making his exacta picks in line and one union teller who could give a crap about my bet.

I bowed to the ATMs and now I stay home and curse Twin Spires on my slow XP.

Standing at the window means face to face with the teller. Not behind someone in a two-dollar line. Probably had the window to himself, teller pointing people behind him to another line. Quite sure he isn't running up at the last second.

[Tom]

I didn't usually see open windows with no one in line.
Ever try to do that at Saratoga?

[Track Phantom]

Originally Posted by Tom

I didn't usually see open windows with no one in line.
Ever try to do that at Saratoga?

Nope....nor have I had 60 large in my hands to make a straight win bet. Was Belmont, too.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

The current strategy being employed by syndicates and big betting insiders is clearly one of waiting till the last second

The idea of putting a big bet on early to put other players off is so 1990s

The big players with positive ROI systems don't care if they miss a bet by being shut out. Being shut out will cost them some theoretical profit but the most important thing is to make positive ROI bets. If you put that bet on a bit early these days you can show your hand to your opposition and then your bet can turn ROI negative

Better off being shut out a few times and having ROI 1.03 on $3 million worth of bets than betting earlier and having ROI of 0.99 on $4 million worth of bets

It is impossible to not be shut out in the days of simulcast betting where races clash

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

The current strategy being employed by syndicates and big betting insiders is clearly one of waiting till the last second

The idea of putting a big bet on early to put other players off is so 1990s

The big players with positive ROI systems don't care if they miss a bet by being shut out. Being shut out will cost them some theoretical profit but the most important thing is to make positive ROI bets. If you put that bet on a bit early these days you can show your hand to your opposition and then your bet can turn ROI negative

Better off being shut out a few times and having ROI 1.03 on $3 million worth of bets than betting earlier and having ROI of 0.99 on $4 million worth of bets

It is impossible to not be shut out in the days of simulcast betting where races clash

Two big flaws in what you wrote---in order for being shut out to increase your ROI, you'd have to know in advance which bets are going to lose. Second, how is a syndicate "showing its hand" going to make every other syndicate, which pays a ton of money for their own computer programs, suddenly chase your bet and kill your value? Doesn't make sense. Neither does burying a single horse at 30 seconds to post, since that's not how these syndicates usually operate either (unless they have some other edge we're not aware of and are constantly told they don't have). Doesn't pass the smell test, sorry.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Tom

Not at all. When I used to bet at the windows at the track, I used to do just that and got shut out more than a few times. All it takes is one slow-poke making his exacta picks in line and one union teller who could give a crap about my bet.
.

All it takes is for the ticket teller to key the wrong race/amount/track ...

this happens all the time, and then there is no time to put thru for a refund MTP
. YIKES.


At some tracks, the ticket teller actually has to PAY for the tickets if the customer rejects them.....even if the customer changes their mind at the last minute. I didn't know this until recently.

I treat all the tellers courteously and tip them when I cash. The crap they have to put up with with last minute bettors who can be very pushy (esp. if drunk) is real.

And it's noisy when crowded, hard to hear what the customer is asking you to punch.

[metro]

Originally Posted by clicknow

All it takes is for the ticket teller to key the wrong race/amount/track ...

this happens all the time, and then there is no time to put thru for a refund MTP
. YIKES.


At some tracks, the ticket teller actually has to PAY for the tickets if the customer rejects them.....even if the customer changes their mind at the last minute. I didn't know this until recently.

I treat all the tellers courteously and tip them when I cash. The crap they have to put up with with last minute bettors who can be very pushy (esp. if drunk) is real.

And it's noisy when crowded, hard to hear what the customer is asking you to punch.

I doubt the 60K win bet player was wagering from the mainline or grandstand section of the track. No idea what the set up is at Belmont but most every major track nowadays has a much more private area set aside for their big players. Guys that wager 60K in a day can get a teller to themselves.