ML Favorites in the money on Turf @SAR -- 5/2's and 7/2's have been profitable!!! - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

TheOracle · 08-15-2015, 04:44 PM

The Morning Line Favorites in certain situations on the Turf have been quite profitable at Saratoga!!!

The Morning Line 7/2's have won 7 of their last 16 attempts when the distance is 5 1/2 Furlongs on the Turf !!!

What is even more interesting is that the ML 7/2's have hit the board in 13 of their last 16 attempts at that distance.

If you wagered just to show in each instance it would have cost you $32 and you would have won $44.50 which is a 39% return on your money!!!

I will be watching this play for the rest of the season at Saratoga

I will have the Morning Line 5/2's at 5 1/2 Furlongs in another post

TheOracle · 08-16-2015, 02:59 PM

The Morning Line 5/2's have been in the money in 7 of their last 7 attempts when the distance is 5 1/2 Furlongs on the Turf!!!

You're getting a 52% return to show so far for this situation!!

I will also be keeping an eye on the 5/2's at 5 1/2 Furlongs on the Turf at Saratoga!!

TheOracle · 08-17-2015, 01:05 PM

There is a 5/2 Morning Line in the 3rd race today at Saratoga on the Turf:
#8 Bossy

Let's see if he can hit the board today and extend the win, place, show streak to 8 in a row on the Turf at 5 1/2 Furlongs!!!

Leap · 08-17-2015, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

There is a 5/2 Morning Line in the 3rd race today at Saratoga on the Turf:
#8 Bossy

Let's see if he can hit the board today and extend the win, place, show streak to 8 in a row on the Turf at 5 1/2 Furlongs!!!

It did.

TheOracle · 08-23-2015, 04:05 PM

Since this post the Morning Line 5/2's have hit the board in 2 of their last 4 attempts on the Turf going 5 1/2 Furlongs at Saratoga snapping a streak of 8 in a row hitting the board at this distance!!!

Although, #6 Laxfield Road ran 3rd on Wednesday I will not include that as part of the streak as there were only 4 horses in that race and so there was no show wagering. so the streak was snapped at 8.

I will have the summary totals for the $2 win, place and show returns in another post.

There is a 5/2 Morning Line entered in today's 7th race:
#6 Lady of Victory

It will be interesting to see if the 5/2's can return the profits they made in the beginning of the month!!!

TheOracle · 08-23-2015, 04:13 PM

The Morning Line 7/2's have been much more consistent hitting the board and have been more profitable in 17 out of 22 attempts on the Turf at 5 1/2 Furlongs at the Spa!!!

Let's see if the 7/2 Morning Line entered in today's 7th race can hit the board:
#5 Scatcapade

tanner12oz · 08-23-2015, 04:17 PM

Good stuff

TheOracle · 08-24-2015, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Good stuff

Thanks Tanner,

Well #5 Scatcapade wound up winning yesterday so that helped the trend quite a bit!!!

I'm so upset that I didn't get the prior post up much earlier than 5 minutes before post time!!!!

The 7/2 Morning Line on the Turf at 5 1/2 Furlongs at Saratoga continues to be profitable they have hit the board in this situation 18 out of 23 times for an across the board profit of 52%.

The Morning Line 7/2's are winning at a rate of 47.8% in this situation they are giving a return of 94% for a $2 wager to win each time in this situation!!!

It will be very difficult to expect these numbers to continue the way they have been for the rest of the Saratoga season but I will enjoy the profits for now if it keeps up this way towards the end of the season!!!

I wish I had been tracking the win, place and show profits of the Morning Line Favorites much earlier in the season but I will continue to watch this trend !!!

castaway01 · 08-25-2015, 09:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

Good stuff

Explain to me how it's good or why this is any more than a short-term coincidence. You're going to bet a horse---to show no less---because of the odds the morning line oddsmaker set it at?

EMD4ME · 08-25-2015, 10:03 AM

How are gray horses , who's jockeys are wearing any blue in their silks, in turf routes on Wednesdays doing at the SPA this year?

Sorry, I couldn't resist

TheOracle · 08-25-2015, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

How are gray horses , who's jockeys are wearing any blue in their silks, in turf routes on Wednesdays doing at the SPA this year?

Sorry, I couldn't resist

Hey EMD,

Hahahaha lol !!!

Don't even play with me....you know if I could track it and put a number on it I would hahahaha lol !!!!

Seriously, regular methods just aren't working for me if it wasn't for K P McLaughlin this season I don't know what I'd do

I'm looking into these tomorrow to hit the board:
Race 6
#2 Total Joint

Race 2
#2 Scatoosh

Race 5
#9 Dowse's Beach

EMD4ME · 08-25-2015, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheOracle

Hey EMD,

Hahahaha lol !!!

Don't even play with me....you know if I could track it and put a number on it I would hahahaha lol !!!!

Seriously, regular methods just aren't working for me if it wasn't for K P McLaughlin this season I don't know what I'd do

I'm looking into these tomorrow to hit the board:
Race 6
#2 Total Joint

Race 2
#2 Scatoosh

Race 5
#9 Dowse's Beach

What's life without some laughter

Oh believe me, if it exists, I KNOW you'll track it. That's a compliment...

TheOracle · 08-25-2015, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by castaway01

Explain to me how it's good or why this is any more than a short-term coincidence. You're going to bet a horse---to show no less---because of the odds the morning line oddsmaker set it at?

Hey Cast,

I'm not saying this is good and I realize it's short term but, with only 2 weeks left in the season at Saratoga and with regular methods not really working for me, I figured I would try something totally different.

I came across this because I noticed that some of the Morning Line favorites were hitting the board so I just wanted to track it and put a number on it just to see how often it happened.

As crazy as it sounds, I actually caught #7 Scatcapade a couple of days ago I thought it would have been bet down and I was surprised to see it paid $9.70 the public went with another horse.

Normally, I would have considered what the public was doing and I would have lost.

As far as the show wagering, I noticed that the Morning Line favorites were not winning but were mostly hitting the board finishing 2nd or 3rd so I tracked the show price to see what the actual returns would be and to my surprise some of the returns are close to 20% which for me is not too bad for show wagering.

I'm looking into these for tomorrow to hit the board:
Race 6
#2 Total Joint

Race 2
#2 Scatoosh

Race 5
#9 Dowse's Beach

Let's see what happens!!!

TheOracle · 08-26-2015, 09:13 PM

Well it looks like we got 2 out of 3 today as the Morning Line 7/2's going 5 1/2 Furlongs won 2 out of 3 races!!!

I was just hoping they would hit the board.

The 7/2's going 5 1/2 Furlongs is giving you a 51% return if you wagered $2 win, place and show in each instance!!

Congratulations to those who saw the play and was able to make a profit!!!

I was hoping #2 Scatoosh would have hit the board today but it was not to be in the 2nd race today!!!

There is one for tomorrow in the 7th race:
#8 Pink Freud Live

Let's see what happens!!!

TheOracle · 08-29-2015, 09:12 PM

Since this post the 7/2 Morning Line Favorites at 5 1/2 Furlongs on the Turf at Saratoga have only hit the board in 2 of their last 5 attempts!!

#8 Pink Freud Live was off the board on Thursday and #6 Leaveematthegate was off the board on Friday.

Although the 2 that hit the board won their races it seems this trend may have run it's course I will continue to keep my eye on it for the last few days of the season!!!