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08-12-2015, 04:16 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Beat BRIS Prime Power rating
In all fairness, I was using BRIS figures to beat the BPP rating. A sampling from my last 140 races:
1. AMS fld hits-> 104
2. BPP hits-> 103
3. eff Swtz* fld hits-> 101
4. ML (Morning Line) hits-> 100
*Data grouped per Dave's book P&P 2012
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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08-12-2015, 04:52 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Capper Al
In all fairness, I was using BRIS figures to beat the BPP rating. A sampling from my last 140 races:
1. AMS fld hits-> 104
2. BPP hits-> 103
3. eff Swtz* fld hits-> 101
4. ML (Morning Line) hits-> 100
*Data grouped per Dave's book P&P 2012
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Forgot to mention that a hit is a winner from one of the top 3 selections.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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08-12-2015, 09:34 AM
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#3
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,910
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What about total return? Do you have those figures?
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08-12-2015, 12:48 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
What about total return? Do you have those figures?
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I wasn't follow those in this sample.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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08-12-2015, 05:16 PM
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#5
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
What about total return? Do you have those figures?
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You were able to understand the original post?
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08-12-2015, 06:42 PM
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#6
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,910
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Yes, I did. Is there an issue with my question?
Did it not make sense?
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08-12-2015, 07:06 PM
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#7
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Yes, I did. Is there an issue with my question?
Did it not make sense?
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Actually yours did, I just didn't follow post #1 or #2. I understand what total return is (in a general sense). I just don't know what CapperAl is writing about.
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08-12-2015, 07:57 PM
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#8
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Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,910
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LOL - Oh. Now I get it.
He was saying that he handicapped 140 races and the top 3 had the winner those number of times.
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08-13-2015, 01:06 PM
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#9
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Racing Form Detective
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Lincoln, Ne but my heart is at Santa Anita
Posts: 16,316
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My limited research into Bris PP shows that a top rated horse who is also the favorite is only profitable at 3/5 or less and then only it is only barely profitable. The higher the odds such a horse goes off at the more money it loses. When it gets into the 5/2 range or higher, generally there is another horse in the race that worth a bet.
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Some day in the not too distant future, horse players will betting on computer generated races over the net. Race tracks will become casinos and shopping centers. And some crooner will be belting out "there used to be a race track here".
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08-13-2015, 01:12 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Yes, I did. Is there an issue with my question?
Did it not make sense?
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I'm a mad man at coding these systems. I forge out never knowing exactly what I'll code next. My current interest was for a contest that I'm in for picking winners, not maximizing returns. I'm about half through my rewrite, and I want to play. So I built a quick pick spreadsheet using the data that I have. It seems to be working fine. Out of 15 cards we have 4 more to go, and I am in the lead.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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08-13-2015, 01:15 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
LOL - Oh. Now I get it.
He was saying that he handicapped 140 races and the top 3 had the winner those number of times.
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Yeap. Sorry for any confusion. I was just delighted that I beat out BPP. That's a high standard to match.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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08-13-2015, 01:16 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Robert Goren
My limited research into Bris PP shows that a top rated horse who is also the favorite is only profitable at 3/5 or less and then only it is only barely profitable. The higher the odds such a horse goes off at the more money it loses. When it gets into the 5/2 range or higher, generally there is another horse in the race that worth a bet.
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Thanks. My study isn't so focused.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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08-13-2015, 01:57 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: MI
Posts: 6,330
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MSW and MC didn't do as well for me. Out of 52 races, it came out as follows:
(Winner in top 3)
1. ML -- 41
2. Jky mPct -- 40
3. Jky wPct -- 39
BPP might of failed because of first time starters.
__________________
"The Law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."
Anatole France
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