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Old 07-10-2020, 04:14 PM   #1
Sea Hero
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I've been watching this happen for three weeks. The latest was Early Mischief in the 6th at Keeneland today. The horse was 10-1 when the gate opened, 10-1 entering the stretch on the lead, and 10-1 as the horses crossed the wire.

Then it dropped to 5-1. That in a win pool of $239,233. That isn't the only one, either. All major tracks: NYRA, Woodbine, Gulfstream, SoCal, Keeneland. All got one stepped after betting closed. 8-1 down to 3-1. 4-1 down to 9/5. 5-1 down to 5/2. 8/5 down to 2/5. Even a 14-1 down to 9/2 at a smaller track. No intermediate flash. One stepped in the odds. It gets really old. It isn't a one off thing. I've seen it at least 20 times in three weeks. It probably happened a lot more.


Oh, and all but two won. the ones that lost did it by a nose. Looks like the cheater has to do it before the win photos are posted.



United or whoever better fix this, because I can't be the only one who's seeing this happen.



Here's an Amwager screen shot of the win table betting odds. Post time was 2:52, winner was #3.

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Old 07-10-2020, 04:51 PM   #2
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I've also seen ones where the price collapsed and they finish up the track.
The ones that do win or run close tend to stick in the mind, I'd like to see some hard data on this which would include the all the late bet downs.

My own view is that its just smart money mopping up the inefficiencies in the pools. It is annoying though.
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Old 07-10-2020, 06:03 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Hero View Post
I've been watching this happen for three weeks. The latest was Early Mischief in the 6th at Keeneland today. The horse was 10-1 when the gate opened, 10-1 entering the stretch on the lead, and 10-1 as the horses crossed the wire.

Then it dropped to 5-1. That in a win pool of $239,233. That isn't the only one, either. All major tracks: NYRA, Woodbine, Gulfstream, SoCal, Keeneland. All got one stepped after betting closed. 8-1 down to 3-1. 4-1 down to 9/5. 5-1 down to 5/2. 8/5 down to 2/5. Even a 14-1 down to 9/2 at a smaller track. No intermediate flash. One stepped in the odds. It gets really old. It isn't a one off thing. I've seen it at least 20 times in three weeks. It probably happened a lot more.


Oh, and all but two won. the ones that lost did it by a nose. Looks like the cheater has to do it before the win photos are posted.



United or whoever better fix this, because I can't be the only one who's seeing this happen.



Here's an Amwager screen shot of the win table betting odds. Post time was 2:52, winner was #3.
You're late to the party. It's been going on for years.

And it's not past-posting. I know you're not going to believe that...but that's ok. Plenty of people walk around all their lives believing in myths.
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Old 07-10-2020, 06:25 PM   #4
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Myth or nor, the perception is bad.
And the game is not doing much of anything to correct it.

BUT, they DID finally get those colored saddle cloths for most tracks.

Can you imagine ordering a stake dinner for $30 in a restaurant, and when the bill comes, it is $45?
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Old 07-10-2020, 07:44 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Hero View Post
I've been watching this happen for three weeks. The latest was Early Mischief in the 6th at Keeneland today. The horse was 10-1 when the gate opened, 10-1 entering the stretch on the lead, and 10-1 as the horses crossed the wire.



It would take somewhere around 14000 bet on the winner to drop it from 10/1 to 5/1 with the pool size you indicated. About the same amount bet on the horse to win in the pool bet again in the last second before the window closes.



Who can make that kind of bet without setting off some kind of red flag?


If they are past posting I would like to know how they are doing it.


Are these big odds drops always on the winners?

Last edited by cj; 07-10-2020 at 08:08 PM.
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Old 07-10-2020, 08:29 PM   #6
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This sums it up in a nutshell from a long time, well respected horseplayer:

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Old 07-10-2020, 08:45 PM   #7
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If the tote board updates at 30-second intervals...how can the odds change during the horses' gallop-out?
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Old 07-10-2020, 08:58 PM   #8
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One of the reasons I quit, for sure.

That and the crappy races being written to favor certain trainers
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Old 07-10-2020, 08:59 PM   #9
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Old 07-10-2020, 09:24 PM   #10
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Not sure about other tracks but the mutuel department at Keeneland can track the source of any wager that they handle, on track or otherwise.

imo, HANA, or a similar bettor integrity type organization, should have someone with the authority of being able to contact the mutuel manager of any N.A. race track and get the context of the wagers made on these races where significant fluctuations in the odds occur. Probably wouldn't take more than a few minutes if it was an on track wager, a bit longer for a wager from another track or OTB, and longest if it was through a ADW site. It can be done though, especially since the wagers causing the late odds changes should logically show at the top of the report.

It's one issue in this game where more transparency really shouldn't be that hard to provided.
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Old 07-10-2020, 09:49 PM   #11
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Isn't this really being exaggerated because no bettors are on track these days and and even higher percentage of money is coming in from very late, and particularly from CRW teams?
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Old 07-10-2020, 10:11 PM   #12
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One of the reasons I quit, for sure.

That and the crappy races being written to favor certain trainers
me too, so frustrating.
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Old 07-10-2020, 10:23 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage View Post
You're late to the party. It's been going on for years.

And it's not past-posting. I know you're not going to believe that...but that's ok. Plenty of people walk around all their lives believing in myths.
Absolutely a Myth!
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
If the tote board updates at 30-second intervals...how can the odds change during the horses' gallop-out?
As you probably know I follow the minute-to-minute betting action at most tracks around the country and in Hong Kong. That's because I use tote board information and money flow exclusively to play this game. I've been doing it for years!

I say "minute-by-minute" only because the majority of tote board flashes (updates) generally occur every 60 seconds at the majority of race tracks and ADWs.
Now for you folks out there with Math issues I realize its hard for you to understand. However, just try to put 2 & 2 together and think for a moment about how long does it actually take to run a 6F race?

Okay lets agree that on average its about 1 minute & 12 seconds (1:12). Are you with me?
So if the last tote update occurs lets say 60 seconds after the gate opens, how far have the horses already run in that 6F race? (Or perhaps 7F or 1m race, etc)

You see most people that bring this topic up always seem to be betting on the horse where the odds have dropped (which don't necessarily win). In the meantime, have you heard anyone complain that because of that odds drop on some other entry that their betting interest (who may have won) went up in odds? Of course not!

That's because the overwhelming majority of players are losing on a consistent basis. Granted the game has changed a lot in terms of popularity and handle, but there's something about it that gives people hopes of winning and still keeps many involved.
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Old 07-10-2020, 11:53 PM   #14
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Isn't this really being exaggerated because no bettors are on track these days and and even higher percentage of money is coming in from very late, and particularly from CRW teams?
I think that makes sense.

I was never one of the people who believed in past posting, or extremely late posting, or whatever you want to call it. However, anyone who can watch races for a day and say that the odds don't drop during the race more often on the winners than the losers---even longshots like that Del Mar---has to be willfully ignoring it. It even happens in bizarre ways like at Delaware the other day where 9-5 shots would go to 1-5 during the race and win. I've been recording gate loading odds for 25 years because it's something I do, looking for patterns. Did it OCCASIONALLY happen in years gone by. Sure. Did it happen three races in a row like on Monday with all three winning? No.

If it's all on the up and up, I guess a lot of us are just imagining things. We're gamblers and naturally skeptical....but that's a lot of coincidences, that we all just happened to notice the same fictional thing happening over and over.
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Old 07-11-2020, 12:33 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by Sea Hero View Post
I've been watching this happen for three weeks. The latest was Early Mischief in the 6th at Keeneland today. The horse was 10-1 when the gate opened, 10-1 entering the stretch on the lead, and 10-1 as the horses crossed the wire.

This is absolutely a misrepresentation. You are indeed correct that he dropped from 10 to 5/1 in the last flash, but watching live on TVG the horse's odds were already displayed as 5/1 on the backstretch about 1/8th of a mile into the race.


I saw in the first race the eventual 3/2 favorite was 7/2 just before they popped the gate (he lost), so there was some crazy late money there today.
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