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Old 07-26-2020, 09:55 PM   #1
porchy44
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What's YOUR definition of a "chaos race"?

To me it would probably involve a deep closer winning (probably at a price). Though (in my case) it would be easier to know I just witnessed one then predict one.
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Old 07-26-2020, 09:56 PM   #2
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A contest that projects to a SLOW early pace so that many have a shot late.
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Old 07-26-2020, 11:08 PM   #3
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A chaos race is a race where the best handicapping strategy is to NOT HANDICAP.

Of course, the trick is knowing this in advance.
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Old 07-27-2020, 01:03 AM   #4
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A race with numerous horses showing one or more of the following:

1) Switching surfaces
2) Drastic distance changes such as 5F last two races, running 1 1/16 today.
3) Long layoffs, but good past form.
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Old 07-27-2020, 11:28 AM   #5
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There are two kinds of "chaos races", IMO. Those where every horse in the race seems capable of winning...and those where NONE of the horses in the race look like they can win. I used to take these races on as some sort of "challenge", perhaps to see how "smart" of a player I was. And then I discovered that I sleep a lot better when I ignore those races and move on to less confusing betting propositions.
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Old 07-27-2020, 03:42 PM   #6
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I think these come in a huge number of varieties.
The races with a large number of unknowns like already mentioned do not interest me very much.

The race where the front runner(s) are weak/sketchy/losing form and nothing looks like it can grab control of the race in the middle are maybe the most common.

I think the 7th at Lone Star is one of the more interesting races today if your willing to take a stand against the Broberg horse as I am (which may turn out to be mistake) Could be a fun race to talk about.
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Old 07-27-2020, 06:54 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
A chaos race is a race where the best handicapping strategy is to NOT HANDICAP.

Of course, the trick is knowing this in advance.
as long as we can still bet, i like this idea
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Old 07-27-2020, 06:59 PM   #8
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The friendly ALL button helps, but is usually to expensive.
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Old 07-27-2020, 08:21 PM   #9
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  • competitive
  • random
  • unknown
  • full field
  • sensitive to small changes (like the break, or even who wins the break)
  • no standouts
  • significant bias or dynamics that handicap/equalize the field(hurt the chalk)
  • spread race
  • false favorite
  • multi-race coverage
  • the 'All' button
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Old 07-27-2020, 09:05 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximillion View Post

I think the 7th at Lone Star is one of the more interesting races today if your willing to take a stand against the Broberg horse as I am (which may turn out to be mistake) Could be a fun race to talk about.
Good call, hope you had the winner, paid $77.20, Broberg's horse finished 2nd, $2 exacta paid $369.80
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Old 07-28-2020, 09:32 AM   #11
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What's YOUR definition of a "chaos race"?

Any race that allows computer batch betting into it.
Also called a non-parimutual race.
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Old 07-28-2020, 04:39 PM   #12
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1. A race with a lot of surface switches, distance changes, layoffs, horses coming off poor performances on off tracks etc.. and you have almost no idea who is in form ready to fire a good race at today's conditions.

2. A race where everyone looks like they are in terrible form and needs a drop in in class. You sort of know a few are probably better than they look and will appreciate the very weak field, but it's not clear which of them.
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Old 07-28-2020, 05:10 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
A chaos race is a race where the best handicapping strategy is to NOT HANDICAP.

Of course, the trick is knowing this in advance.
I like your answer Dave, and thask's too.
One of my chaos criteria is a race with a big field of horses and all entries outrank the Cox/Brown/Pletch entries in both E/L by a significant margin. Burns my a$$ when they go ahead and win those races as often as they do.
But I sure enjoy the fruits when they fail because most folks bet them way down. Got to know when to pick your spots.
I picked up a nice sup 4H box win not long ago by picking my 2 best (at high odds) and boxing them with brown/Cox horses which had picked up some skepticism. Turned out pretty good cause my 2 best were the 2 best.
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Old 08-04-2020, 04:08 PM   #14
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My DEFINITION of a chaos race is any race where all, or most, of the entries show near equal abilities in sp figures and E/L under similar race conditions to today's race while ignoring connections stats.
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Last edited by Appy; 08-04-2020 at 04:09 PM.
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Old 08-04-2020, 07:46 PM   #15
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chaos

A race that takes longer than 5 mins to handicap ,then you have to go back and look at it again and again.
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