Could a horse win the KY Derby as 4 yo?! - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Dark Horse · 12-09-2014, 01:24 AM

I recently re-examined California Chrome's races. My conclusion, granted, stands or falls with my methodology. I had noted that CC was overcoming all sorts of obstacles that other horses couldn't. Race after race. His 'grid' for the KY Derby, for instance, showed nothing special, where other winners of that 20 horse stampede have standout off-the-charts grids. The same for his other wins. Somehow, for some reason, CC was the odd one out. I love the horse and his achievements, but either he was some sort of super horse that could overcome what no other horse could, or there was another explanation.

Puzzled by the curious case of California Chrome, I decided on a hunch to enter a December birth, two months prior to his recorded date. This little experiment completely flipped the picture. Suddenly, with the horse now two months older, every single one of his wins jumped off the page! From absolutely nothing (February) to undeniably excellent (December). There was the real Chrome, effortlessly joining the other Derby winners!

But could CC have been born in December? Horses are bred to be born early in the new year. Could it have been a premature birth? I asked my mentor about premature births, who pointed out that they certainly occur, even as early as November, but that they never appear as such in the records. After all, with a cutoff date of January 1st, it would completely undermine the horse's racing career. So the 'reality' is that there are no horses born in December...

With this new bit of information I had come full circle. I had started with the inexplicable nature of Chrome's wins, had followed this with an experimental adjustment to December, and ended up with precisely the type of reality, surrounding premature births, that is swept under the carpet. In other words, I now had a POSSIBLE reason for Chrome's collection of inexplicable wins, as well as a solution in that very same reason.

In my opinion it's POSSIBLE that Chrome, technically, ran as a 4 yo in the Derby. I add 'technically', because the rigid January 1st date is perhaps too inflexible. If people invest thousands in breeding, then why should their money be wasted in case of a premature birth? But bettors, without whom this game ceases to exist, deserve to know. Two months difference at that age is big.

Greyfox · 12-09-2014, 01:51 AM

Sorry.
But to be honest, you haven't presented any evidence here worthy of looking at twice and that's a hell of a charge to make based on mere suspicions.

Dark Horse · 12-09-2014, 01:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Sorry.
But to be honest, you haven't presented any evidence here worthy of looking at twice and that's a hell of a charge to make based on mere suspicions.

I precluded it with the admission that it stands or falls with my methodology. This topic is not to prove the case. That can be done, but is a whole different ballgame. I was relating an experience, and did so to raise awareness to the fact that this happens in horse racing, with CC as a possible high profile example.

Greyfox · 12-09-2014, 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

I precluded it with the admission that it stands or falls with my methodology. Can I prove it? Yes. But I would first have to unveil and teach that methodology. Am I going to do that on this forum? Nope.

This thread is not to prove the case. I was relating an experience, and did so to raise awareness to the fact that this happens in horse racing, with CC as a possible high profile example.

Essentially, you are charging the connections with fraud.
In the absence of your so called methodology you could be exposing yourself and possibly PA to a libel action.
I think that this thread should be closed down.

Dark Horse · 12-09-2014, 02:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Essentially, you are charging the connections with fraud.
In the absence of your so called methodology you could be exposing yourself and possibly PA to a libel action.
I think that this thread should be closed down.

Before opening this can of worms I asked PA if he was ok with the topic.

You got your hat on too tight. You're acting as if premature births are untouchable. This is all part of horse racing. Open season.

Greyfox · 12-09-2014, 02:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

Before opening this can of worms I asked PA if he was ok with the topic.

You got your hat on too tight. You're acting as if premature births are untouchable.

But I don't have a loose screw rattling around.

Dark Horse · 12-09-2014, 02:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyfox

But I don't have a loose screw rattling around.

If PA wishes to close this topic I'm perfectly fine with it. Sorry I wasn't aware of your self-ascribed moderator status.

Greyfox · 12-09-2014, 02:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

If PA wishes to close this topic I'm perfectly fine with it. Sorry I wasn't aware of your self-ascribed moderator status.

I'm not a moderator.
I gave my opinion on your horrible accusation.

mostpost · 12-09-2014, 02:14 AM

Do you also believe that Ann Dunham forged a Hawaii birth certificate when her son Barack was born in Kenya, because she knew he would one day run for President of the United States?

Dark Horse · 12-09-2014, 02:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyfox

I'm not a moderator.
I gave my opinion on your horrible accusation.

Are you saying that a discussion revolving around the reality of premature births that are not reported as such should be taboo?

Dark Horse · 12-09-2014, 02:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mostpost

Do you also believe that Ann Dunham forged a Hawaii birth certificate when her son Barack was born in Kenya, because she knew he would one day run for President of the United States?

No. I'm suggesting that this is standard practice. But never mind.

PaceAdvantage, this topic is not leading to anything constructive. Please be so kind to erase it.

davew · 12-09-2014, 02:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mostpost

Do you also believe that Ann Dunham forged a Hawaii birth certificate when her son Barack was born in Kenya, because she knew he would one day run for President of the United States?

Ann's parents lied about who was the father.

mostpost · 12-09-2014, 02:34 AM

I would think that as with humans, there is a birth certificate involved. I would guess that the birth certificate is filled out by the attending veterinarian. I feel pretty certain that these certificates are sequentially numbered and a great deal of suspicion would be raised if a certificate with a number from December turned up with a date from February. I think yours is one of the dumbest ideas I have heard in a long time. I don't know what your "methodology" is, but if it comes up with this result, I think you need a new methodology.

Stillriledup · 12-09-2014, 02:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greyfox

But I don't have a loose screw rattling around.

I love outside the box thinking. Don't be "that guy" who is afraid of change and offbeat topics, evolve, its 2014, stretch your mind and don't get offended by people who do.

nijinski · 12-09-2014, 03:01 AM

http://youtu.be/_iFG9isQpzs

I'm sure if he was born earlier someone from Harris Farm would have
been talking .
Enjoy the Video !