Guess the ML, Belmont Park, Race 2, Sept 19th

[Canarsie]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Not sure when the real ML comes out, but we gotta get them in before the ML comes up. I selected this race because there are no firsters, the field isn't too big, and there are no MTOs.

Now, I think we ought to not try and guess what the ML is going to be, rather lets guess what it SHOULD be..that way, we can compare our ML to the track ML guy and then compare that to the final prices at the end of the day.

I'll post my own ML later tonight. (if you don't know how to make a morning line, just make guesses on each individual horse, it doesn't have to 'add up' just do the best you can).

Even though we hardly agree this is one of your best ideas yet. Making a ML is not easy because your trying to think like John Q. public. This is nothing but fun if someone disagrees with you or someone else they should at least list the first four horses with the lowest odds. If they care enough to reply making a mini line shouldn't take up too much time and effort.

I once heard somewhere ( TVG but not positive) that htey don't list horses at 99/1 in deference to the owners. Whether this is true or not I have no idea. Maybe someone who is more knowledgeable (most in here) than me could respond whether this is fairly accurate or not.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Canarsie

Even though we hardly agree this is one of your best ideas yet. Making a ML is not easy because your trying to think like John Q. public. This is nothing but fun if someone disagrees with you or someone else they should at least list the first four horses with the lowest odds. If they care enough to reply making a mini line shouldn't take up too much time and effort.

I once heard somewhere ( TVG but not positive) that htey don't list horses at 99/1 in deference to the owners. Whether this is true or not I have no idea. Maybe someone who is more knowledgeable (most in here) than me could respond whether this is fairly accurate or not.

I appreciate that, thanks. I was toying with this idea a bit, but someone on the racing side of the board suggested it so i put it into play. I'm thinking next time more people will chime in and post a morning line, (as opposed to not posting a morning line but coming into the thread anyway to bang on those who do).

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by Canarsie

Maybe someone who is more knowledgeable (most in here) than me could respond whether this is fairly accurate or not.

I don't claim to be more knowledgeable than anyone, but I used to be in place at NYRA many years ago when the M/L makers were an old Damon Runyon-type character named B.J. O'Neill and, later, an ex-jock, Donald LaPlace. They both regaled us with stories of bickering with owners/trainers about making their horses too high or low on the line. One thing I remember; it was almost unheard of to make a horse greater than 20/1 on the line, no matter how bad he looked.

I also recall that O'Neill fancied himself a pretty savvy handicapper, and liked to gloat if a horse he made 4/1 came in and paid $17 or so.

[Rise Over Run]

Originally Posted by Ocala Mike

I also recall that O'Neill fancied himself a pretty savvy handicapper, and liked to gloat if a horse he made 4/1 came in and paid $17 or so.

I've heard from complete unreliable sources that Donovan acts the same way around the Belmont Clubhouse.

[johnhannibalsmith]

There once was a lifer racing office jockey,
His morning lines were always a bit rocky,
but when he went for seven to one,
they almost always won for fun,
which only made good ole' Red more cocky.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

There once was a lifer racing office jockey,
His morning lines were always a bit rocky,
but when he went for seven to one,
they almost always won for fun,
which only made good ole' Red more cocky.

I propose that JHS is hereby anointed the Bard of PA
A forum version of the Poet Laureate

[Ocala Mike]

Yeah, maybe that's it. Making a horse 7/1 in the M/L might be a signal of some kind. There was an old race track axiom that if a horse was listed in the PP's as having lost his last race by EXACTLY 7-1/2 lengths, that was also a signal to play him next time.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by johnhannibalsmith

There once was a lifer racing office jockey,
His morning lines were always a bit rocky,
but when he went for seven to one,
they almost always won for fun,
which only made good ole' Red more cocky.

There once was a racing office lifer
Who's morning lines were always a bit hyper
At seven to one
they would often win for fun
And sometimes even baffle Mel Kiper.

[HuggingTheRail]

Originally Posted by stu

In the first week that I was paid to make a ML, I made a horse 7-1 in order to keep the points in the guidelines and I was chided by trainers, owners, agents and co-workers. I was told that the line should only include certain numbers. I don't know why either but it is tradition. Your numbers plus 30, 50, 99.

Which Hastings doesn't use nearly often enough....WW Wanderer on Sunday should be minimum 50, but will likely be 20, maybe 30

[dirty moose]

Originally Posted by dirty moose

1 Cat Man Fu ..........20-1
2 Royal Posse...........5-1
3 Maximus Mike........12-1
4 Master Yank.......... 2-1
5 Strueves Star........ 7/2
6 It Matters.............12-1
7 Ice Wagon............ 20-1
8 Q Two .................6-1

Just some guessing. Didn't put any work into it. Looked at the pp's for 5 min.

Actual ML

1 Cat Man Fu ..........30-1
2 Royal Posse...........5-1
3 Maximus Mike........4-1
4 Master Yank.......... 5/2
5 Strueves Star........ 5-1
6 It Matters.............15-1
7 Ice Wagon............ 6-1
8 Q Two .................8-1

[Canarsie]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I appreciate that, thanks. I was toying with this idea a bit, but someone on the racing side of the board suggested it so i put it into play. I'm thinking next time more people will chime in and post a morning line, (as opposed to not posting a morning line but coming into the thread anyway to bang on those who do).

I wonder if there was a knockout contest (hint) where you had to pick the ML favorite for every race on the card (lets say Bel) how many would last more than a day or two. It might make people more considerate and less critical against those that do it for a living or even just for fun.

It's far worse in harness if 1,000 people entered I doubt more than 50 would make it out of the first day. Also throw in the night time thoroughbred tracks the odds are slim many people would last going into the second day.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by dirty moose

Actual ML

1 Cat Man Fu ..........30-1
2 Royal Posse...........5-1
3 Maximus Mike........4-1
4 Master Yank.......... 5/2
5 Strueves Star........ 5-1
6 It Matters.............15-1
7 Ice Wagon............ 6-1
8 Q Two .................8-1

Strueves Star is 3-1

[jballscalls]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

I've never made a morning line but I agree this is gonna be fun.

Here's my crack at Race 2

Cat Man Fu 20/1
Royal Posse 7/2
Maximus Mike 6/1
Master Yank 2/1
Struevas Star 4/1
It Matters 5/1
Ice Wagon 8/1
Q Two 12/1

It Matters at 12/1 and Q Two at 8/1 were the two that me and Eric Donovan are way apart on. Maybe I should bet It Matters if I think she should be 5/1 LOL

[dirty moose]

I'm going to take a shot with the 8 horse Q Two. 6-1 with 10 MTP

[dirty moose]

Also key boxing the 8 with 2,3,4,5,7