Guess the ML, Belmont Park, Race 2, Sept 19th

[Stillriledup]

Not sure when the real ML comes out, but we gotta get them in before the ML comes up. I selected this race because there are no firsters, the field isn't too big, and there are no MTOs.

Now, I think we ought to not try and guess what the ML is going to be, rather lets guess what it SHOULD be..that way, we can compare our ML to the track ML guy and then compare that to the final prices at the end of the day.

I'll post my own ML later tonight. (if you don't know how to make a morning line, just make guesses on each individual horse, it doesn't have to 'add up' just do the best you can).

[Stillriledup]

1 Cat Man Fu ..........15-1
2 Royal Posse...........8-1
3 Maximus Mike........5-2
4 Master Yank.......... 5-1
5 Strueves Star........ 5-2
6 It Matters.............20-1
7 Ice Wagon............ 6-1
8 Q Two .................12-1

[dirty moose]

1 Cat Man Fu ..........20-1
2 Royal Posse...........5-1
3 Maximus Mike........12-1
4 Master Yank.......... 2-1
5 Strueves Star........ 7/2
6 It Matters.............12-1
7 Ice Wagon............ 20-1
8 Q Two .................6-1

Just some guessing. Didn't put any work into it. Looked at the pp's for 5 min.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by dirty moose

1 Cat Man Fu ..........20-1
2 Royal Posse...........5-1
3 Maximus Mike........12-1
4 Master Yank.......... 2-1
5 Strueves Star........ 7/2
6 It Matters.............12-1
7 Ice Wagon............ 20-1
8 Q Two .................6-1

Just some guessing. Didn't put any work into it. Looked at the pp's for 5 min.

I agree. Master Yank has to be the favorite.

[thaskalos]

The only problem is the my OTB doesn't get those PPs until the morning of the 19th. They tell me that the DRF's distribution methods are "hit or miss".

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

1 Cat Man Fu ..........15-1
2 Royal Posse...........8-1
3 Maximus Mike........5-2
4 Master Yank.......... 5-1
5 Strueves Star........ 5-2
6 It Matters.............20-1
7 Ice Wagon............ 6-1
8 Q Two .................12-1

1) Cat Man Fu. While he's 1 for 52 lifetime (really 2 for 52, took a horrible DQ that's off the page) he can run lower 60s beyers. Gets in with light weight and if he runs an ok race here, he has some sort of chance. Made him 15-1 but its likely he will be 25-1 or 30-1 by post time.

2) Royal Posse. Another with light weight, seems to fit here with his 65 Beyer 2 back. Other than his win 2 back, doesn't seem to fire big all that often. Has a chance, but leaning elsewhere.

3) Maximus Mike. Made him co favorite on the "angles". New trainer, blinkers, new jock, etc. Seems to have some talent and might have upside. If he breaks thru to a 70+ beyer, he's right there, upside with lightly raced, made him a co fave.

4) Master Yank. Seems to be able to run a bit, but have to just disregard a large margin win at FL....his Belmont races leave something to be desired, raced terrible as 4-5 shot on May 7th and was loose at 6-5 on July 6th and failed with no real excuses. Did run a 69 Beyer 2 back which puts him in the mix, has high weight and no lasix. Contender as 3rd most likely winner.

5) Strueves Star. Made him Co fave off game win and 72 Beyer. Gets positive trainer change also. Has 74 Beyer 3 back, one of the best in the field. Probably the most likely winner if the trainer change moves him up at all.

6) It Matters. Made him longest shot in the race as his only main track performance was a slow 37 beaten 17. No proof he can do anything on the dirt, you deserve a nice price if you can get him to win....outsider.

7) Ice Wagon. Somewhat of a contender, has a Beyer 4 back that puts him in the mix, 2nd time blinkers, 6 percent trainer but has some competitive lines, not without a chance.

8) Q Two. Has one CD effort that gives him some chance, but that was a trumped up figure while being loose vs 4 rivals, his Saratoga figure is slow and he was on the wire with Coldwater Flat who looks horrible on paper. Needs to pick it up. Outsider.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

1 Cat Man Fu ..........15-1
2 Royal Posse...........8-1
3 Maximus Mike........5-2
4 Master Yank.......... 5-1
5 Strueves Star........ 5-2
6 It Matters.............20-1
7 Ice Wagon............ 6-1
8 Q Two .................12-1

Worst fake morning line ever.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

Worst fake morning line ever.

I must be having a problem with my computer, or there's a problem with the PA site as i can't seem to see YOUR morning line, its just not coming thru onto my screen.

Can you repost it so that maybe i can see it?

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I must be having a problem with my computer, or there's a problem with the PA site as i can't seem to see YOUR morning line, its just not coming thru onto my screen.

Can you repost it so that maybe i can see it?

I don't want to do a fake ML for a race I have no intention of wagering on. I think its pretty obvious though who will be made the ML chalk and you have that horse at 5-1.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I must be having a problem with my computer, or there's a problem with the PA site as i can't seem to see YOUR morning line, its just not coming thru onto my screen.

Can you repost it so that maybe i can see it?

How about a fake ML for the Gallant Bob on Saturday? That race is a cluster ****, Im having a hard time with it.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

I don't want to do a fake ML for a race I have no intention of wagering on. I think its pretty obvious though who will be made the ML chalk and you have that horse at 5-1.

My oddsline is trying to guess what the public will do, not what the ML guy will do. Its quite possible he will make your pick 5-2.

Or, he will make him 5-1 like i have him.

You can do a ML of any race you choose, pick out a race you intend on betting and make a ML before the real ML comes out. Your choice, any race you want.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

How about a fake ML for the Gallant Bob on Saturday? That race is a cluster ****, Im having a hard time with it.

I wish there was a true closer in the race, seems like the pace will be hot, i'd love a big closer to pick em up.

Here's what i think the ML will be (not what it SHOULD be).

1 Favorite Tale 7-2
2 Camden St 12-1
3 Bump St 8-1
4 Prudhoe Bay 5-2
5 Pure Sensation 6-1
6 Fast Anna 2-1
7 Good Bye Greg 10-1

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I wish there was a true closer in the race, seems like the pace will be hot, i'd love a big closer to pick em up.

Here's what i think the ML will be (not what it SHOULD be).

1 Favorite Tale 7-2
2 Camden St 12-1
3 Bump St 8-1
4 Prudhoe Bay 5-2
5 Pure Sensation 6-1
6 Fast Anna 2-1
7 Good Bye Greg 10-1

I dont see how Fast Anna goes off over 6-5. A decent 2nd in a G1 at Saratoga.... The public will crush this horse. Maybe even lower then 6-5. Not saying I like him, actually I think Im tossing him.
One comment about your ML.... 12-1 on Camden St?? Did you look at the pps? How is he not 99-1?

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

1 Cat Man Fu ..........15-1
2 Royal Posse...........8-1
3 Maximus Mike........5-2
4 Master Yank.......... 5-1
5 Strueves Star........ 5-2
6 It Matters.............20-1
7 Ice Wagon............ 6-1
8 Q Two .................12-1

A critic is a legless man who teaches running (heard that someplace, don't remember where), so I won't criticize this line or attempt to put one up myself.

One thing I will point out, however, is that you've violated a cardinal rule for M/L makers, and that is the fact that you have COFAVORITES! In my long experience with ML's, I have never once encountered one where (after MTO's come out) no differentiation was made between two or more of the lowest priced horses. ML makers will ALWAYS make one 6/5, the other 7/5 or something like that to make a stand.

[jballscalls]

I've never made a morning line but I agree this is gonna be fun.

Here's my crack at Race 2

Cat Man Fu 20/1
Royal Posse 7/2
Maximus Mike 6/1
Master Yank 2/1
Struevas Star 4/1
It Matters 5/1
Ice Wagon 8/1
Q Two 12/1