Morning line

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by arno

Would love to see no morning line.
The morning line kills the price of horizontal wagers.
Look at will pays on a last leg of pick 3 or pick 4.
I hate when I have a horse in last leg that pays smallest just cause its ML is low yet pays well in the race. Thank goodness for the win pool.

If they are going to keep ML let's have more 5's.
Like 8/5, 9/5,6/5 LOL.
Stop making the ML favorite 3/1 or 5/2 its unrealistic.
I realize making it more a "true" ML might hurt handle but
then again there will be less crying when the 3/1 ML favorite pays 4.20.

If a horse who is destined to be 8-5 is 4-1 ML, he will be lower in pick anythings than if he was 4-5 ML. At 4-1, people are singling him thinking "this is a great 4-1 shot" as opposed to "this is a beatable 4-5 shot".

[jballscalls]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

If a horse who is destined to be 8-5 is 4-1 ML, he will be lower in pick anythings than if he was 4-5 ML. At 4-1, people are singling him thinking "this is a great 4-1 shot" as opposed to "this is a beatable 4-5 shot".

I would think the total opposite. the chalk is the chalk for a reason, more people play it. I think way more people single a 4/5 M/L shot than a 4/1 M/L shot, regardless of the horses true chances.

[cj]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

I would think the total opposite. the chalk is the chalk for a reason, more people play it. I think way more people single a 4/5 M/L shot than a 4/1 M/L shot, regardless of the horses true chances.

Of course this is reality, not the prior post.

[classhandicapper]

The only thing I use the ML for is to determine the bet potential of a horse I like.

If the horse is listed at the ML favorite or a close 2nd choice I'll usually put less energy into thinking about how to construct a bet long before post time because I already know I'll probably be passing the race.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

I would think the total opposite. the chalk is the chalk for a reason, more people play it. I think way more people single a 4/5 M/L shot than a 4/1 M/L shot, regardless of the horses true chances.

I misspoke. What i meant to say was that the 4-1 ML on a true 8-5 shot would hurt that horse in the betting as true value seekers would gravitate towards him the night before thinking he's the value horse. I shouldn't have used the 4-5 ML example, but if we think what you said is true, that means many people DO use the morning line and it does affect a great deal of money and betting decisions. CJ and Gus earlier in this thread said the ML is "useless" (post 4) and "Trivial" (Post 2) but now we're thinking that it causes people to blindly single horses in pick anythings?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

I misspoke. What i meant to say was that the 4-1 ML on a true 8-5 shot would hurt that horse in the betting as true value seekers would gravitate towards him the night before thinking he's the value horse. I shouldn't have used the 4-5 ML example, but if we think what you said is true, that means many people DO use the morning line and it does affect a great deal of money and betting decisions. CJ and Gus earlier in this thread said the ML is "useless" (post 4) and "Trivial" (Post 2) but now we're thinking that it causes people to blindly single horses in pick anythings?

The people who blindly single horses because of their ML odds do not stay in action long...so their effect upon the mutuel pools is negligible,

[DeltaLover]

ML is an important factor, as it affects the psychology and decisions of the majority of the bettors.

As Dave said above it is highly correlated to the public , although this does not need to be credited exclusively to the skill of the line maker but on the way he is influencing the crowd as well..

For obvious reasons, having bookmakers spinning out their live fixed odds would had been way more interesting than what we know today as ML...

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The people who blindly single horses because of their ML odds do not stay in action long...so their effect upon the mutuel pools is negligible,

People might not blindly single low ML horses, but its a similar effect if they "throw that horse in" because of a low ML.

[Stillriledup]

Nice ML in the 11th today at Zia.

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by jballscalls

We toyed with the idea of not doing a morning line last year at Portland Meadows. Turns out apparently Incompass (the program that uploads the entries) won't let you make a program final without a M/L.

Our thoughts were you might get truer odds as some folks are less likely to be influenced from the M/L. However I wonder if then the track handicapper might have more influence than normal?

today's Woodbine Mile had an interesting M/L miss when Aldous Snow was 3/1 on the line and went off at 17.90 to 1. The horse was 2nd on the Brisnet Power rankings, maybe the M/L maker was going of those?

Couldn't you do a generic ML for the printers? Make everyone 5-1 or base it on the amount of entries, so in a 10 horse field make them all 9-1.

By the way I read your book this Spring. Well done. A book written by someone who actually has been to race track and placed a bet.

[FocusWiz]

Like Dave, I "use" the morning line in formulating my wagering strategies. Obviously, the utility of this "tool" varies widely from track to track, but it is quite useful in New York. I could probably live without it, but then would need to create my own version of it as input to my spreadsheets.

I could likely adjust the software I use to create a pseudo morning line for most situations, but I do like having the morning lines for first time starters (where my software would not).

For those of you who want to eliminate it, is the general consensus that it reduces payouts by leading bettors to favorites you want to wager on or do you just consider it an additional overhead that contributes to a high takeout rate (not sure you could even get ¼% more by eliminating the ML activity and I am nearly certain the money would go into someone else's pocket, not ours)?

I am not sure what would or would not be accomplished by eliminating the morning line, since any of us can easily ignore it if we don't like it.

[EMD4ME]

I prefer no morning lines for any races, period. Not sometimes, ALL the time.

You wanna play horses? No ML to aid you or steer you. You don't do your diligent work? Too bad, lose.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I prefer no morning lines for any races, period. Not sometimes, ALL the time.

You wanna play horses? No ML to aid you or steer you. You don't do your diligent work? Too bad, lose.

I agree. We hand too much information to people on a silver platter.

[FocusWiz]

Not that I do this intentionally, but a large number of my plays tend to play against the morning line. I just had the as a key horse in the 8th at Mountaineer in a key box exacta with the and Not sure where the ML favorite finished (not in the top 5), but the was the second favorite on the morning line and the was 15/1 (and went off at 27/1).

I would like the tracks to hand others the horse (the ML favorite) to everyone and I would want everyone else to play it exclusively. Do you find that you play the ML favorite a high percentage of the time? If not, why do you care if you aren't playing it?

[jballscalls]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

Couldn't you do a generic ML for the printers? Make everyone 5-1 or base it on the amount of entries, so in a 10 horse field make them all 9-1.

By the way I read your book this Spring. Well done. A book written by someone who actually has been to race track and placed a bet.

interesting thought John. And thank you for reading, I really appreciate it.