Morning line

[zico20]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I happen to think that the morning line deserves all the criticism it gets...and then some. And, no...I don't expect the morning line to be "right all the time". What I expect is for it to do the job that it purports to do; make an honest effort to predict what the closing odds of the race are likely to be. The job that the morning line does in this regard is shameful.

We have a 5-horse field, and a BLIND man can tell that the favorite will be no more than 4/5...and yet, THERE is the morning line, beckoning us at odds of 2/1. And I don't mean occasionally...I mean EVERY FREAKING TIME! I can't REMEMBER that last time I saw a horse listed at 4/5 in a morning line. And on the opposite side of the spectrum...I can't recall a horse listed at odds of 50-1...even though such horses are commonplace in virtually every full field that we see.

It's not the "inaccuracy" of the morning line that angers me. It's the DISHONESTY associated with its stated purpose that I can't tolerate.

Absolutely agree with you about the dishonesty part. I always wonder who gives the orders for the disparity. They all can't be that bad at every single track.

[Flysofree]

I must be heavily in the minority... I like the morning line . Love it when my selection is the 2nd or 3rd choice, but not the favorite.... And I have seen plenty of races with a 4-5 ML.

[TheEdge07]

Its usless who cares...

[zico20]

Originally Posted by Flysofree

I must be heavily in the minority... I like the morning line . Love it when my selection is the 2nd or 3rd choice, but not the favorite.... And I have seen plenty of races with a 4-5 ML.

Yes, I have seen a lot of 4-5 morning lines also. The problem is that every single one of them go off at 1-5 or 1-9. So there is your dishonesty part by not making them 1-5 on the ML.

[Flysofree]

I love to see that.... Just me. I can pass the race or bet the field to show if the bridge jumpers are out.

[Ocala Mike]

I "use" the morning line like an atheist "uses" the bible. You can't be a contrarian unless you have something to go against.

Bargirl to Marlon Brando in "The Wild One": "What are you rebelling against, Johnny?"

Marlon Brando: "What have you got?"

[Cholly]

What tracks you M/L-bashers are following? M/L @ NYRA tracks usually pretty darn accurate.

[eqitec]

You hit the nail on the head. For my play I've found it to be essential to tease out the early betting action by comparing actual odds in the 1st few minutes of betting vs. the horses' morning lines. I go so far as to adjust the morning lines for scratches to get a more precise comparison. When possible I use the DD will pays as a guide in making ML adjustments for scratches vs. a purely mathematical formula, based on the belief that the win odds in the 2nd 1/2 of a DD will mirror the order of the will pays. I am amazed at how often the early betting action uncovers horses that look bad on paper but end up running ITM at long odds.

[Appy]

I believe ML is very influential in determining order of public favoritism. I do not use it at all in wager decisions (I use live tote), but I definitely employ ML as one tool to help me determine which races on a card I might be interested in playing.

[Dave Schwartz]

Bargirl to Marlon Brando in "The Wild One": "What are you rebelling against, Johnny?"

Marlon Brando: "What have you got?"

Aside from being one of my favorite movies of all time, that is just a great quote.

Also remember how Lee Marvin stole the show as "Gino." What a characterization. Actually very similar to Kid Shelleen (Cat Ballou).

[jballscalls]

We toyed with the idea of not doing a morning line last year at Portland Meadows. Turns out apparently Incompass (the program that uploads the entries) won't let you make a program final without a M/L.

Our thoughts were you might get truer odds as some folks are less likely to be influenced from the M/L. However I wonder if then the track handicapper might have more influence than normal?

today's Woodbine Mile had an interesting M/L miss when Aldous Snow was 3/1 on the line and went off at 17.90 to 1. The horse was 2nd on the Brisnet Power rankings, maybe the M/L maker was going of those?

[Zaf]

Originally Posted by Cholly

What tracks you M/L-bashers are following? M/L @ NYRA tracks usually pretty darn accurate.

Agree and John White is the best in the business.

Z

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Zaf

Agree and John White is the best in the business.

Z

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...hlight=morning

[arno]

Would love to see no morning line.
The morning line kills the price of horizontal wagers.
Look at will pays on a last leg of pick 3 or pick 4.
I hate when I have a horse in last leg that pays smallest just cause its ML is low yet pays well in the race. Thank goodness for the win pool.

If they are going to keep ML let's have more 5's.
Like 8/5, 9/5,6/5 LOL.
Stop making the ML favorite 3/1 or 5/2 its unrealistic.
I realize making it more a "true" ML might hurt handle but
then again there will be less crying when the 3/1 ML favorite pays 4.20.

[Ocala Mike]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Aside from being one of my favorite movies of all time, that is just a great quote.

Also remember how Lee Marvin stole the show as "Gino." What a characterization. Actually very similar to Kid Shelleen (Cat Ballou).

Loved Lee Marvin (Chino, not Gino) in those roles. He actually was a biker, too.
Loved him in "The Dirty Dozen" too.