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Old 03-22-2018, 05:58 PM   #1
mostpost
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Top Ten MLB lineups for 2018

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-10-mlb-...18/c-269228496
I will start the discussion. First of all, the author, Anthony Castrovince makes no allowance for the fact that the American League has the DH while the National league does not. As the great Chicago columnist and radio host Barry Rozner would say, "Nine is more than eight." A team that has nine batters is going to better than a team that has eight.

Four of the top five teams are American League teams. Would this be the case if the Astros had to bat the pitcher instead of Evan Gattis or if the Yankees had to bat their pitcher in place of Giancarlo Stanton? Speaking of Stanon, his 59 homeruns last season are 22 more than he has ever hit in one season previously.

Aaron Judge hit fifty two but his highest in the minors was 20.

I w leave it to others to defend their favorite teams while I concentrate on my favorite
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Old 03-22-2018, 07:41 PM   #2
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OK then. Why is the Chicago Cubs lineup better than its number six rating?
Let's start at the beginning; a very good place to start. Last year, leadoff man was a disaster for the Cubs beginning with the ill advised decision to force Kyle Schwarber into that role.

This year Ian Happ has led off in every game he has played and has a slash line of .333/.417/.810/1.226 with five home runs. Last year Happ hit 24 Homeruns in115 games. Further, observers in Arizona are unanimous in saying that Happ's defensive play in Center field has taken significant strides.

The next two players in the Cubs order are Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Even if they only maintain what they did last year, that is a potent combo. I think they will be better. Their Spring Training performance thus far says they will be better. Both of them are superior defensive players, particularly Rizzo.

The cleanup hitter will be Willson Contreras. Last year Contreras hit 21 Home Runs and drove in 74 runs despite missing a month late in the season. He is, or shortly will be, the best all around catcher in baseball.

We come now to the chief reason that I think the Cubs lineup is under valued.
Kyle Schwarber. Forget the first half of Schwarber's season last year. Making him the lead off man totally screwed up his game and his hitting. Add to that the fact that he basically missed an entire year and you have a recipe for disaster. After hitting .171 in the first half, Schwarber was sent down to Iowa for a few weeks. Upon returning, he hit 17 home runs with a slash line of .253/.335/.559/894.

But the main reason for optimism regarding "Schwarbs" has come this spring. His slash line is .381/.471/.786/1.256. But the most important stats are Kyle's improvement against lefties. After never hitting higher than .220 against southpaw previously, his slash line against those pitchers currently stands at .429/.500.;857/1.357

He is hitting the ball to all fields, not pulling everything as before. He has four stolen bases, more than his entire MLB career previously and has been caught stealing only once.

Addison Russell. Russell did not have a good year last year. Several nagging injuries and distracting personal issues contributed to his downfall. Those factors are no longer in play and I expect Addy to be much closer to his 2016 numbers. In fact I predict 30 home runs and 100 plus RBI's.

Jason Heyward. Unfortunately, I can't say much good here. He has to step up his game.

Javier Baez. Best defensive second baseman in the game with improving offensive numbers. Another possible 30 home run guy.
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Old 03-23-2018, 12:42 PM   #3
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I'm a Cubs fan but I'm also a baseball bettor, so objectivity is important.

The Astros do have the top lineup in MLB. I believe WRC+ (Weighted runs created) is the single most important offensive number because it takes park into account; the media always believes Colorado has a great lineup but in reality it's only 2 guys, and that is reflected in a park adjusted stat like WRC+. Houston received a 121 last year. That was far better than the second best team, the Yankees at 108. The Cubs had a bit of a WS hangover, and came in only at 8th at 101 (they were tied for 3rd in 2016 with a 105). I'd put the Cubs in the top 5. A Dodger team without Justin Turner probably slots behind them. The top team in 2016? It was Boston at 114. That team had David Ortiz and a number of Red Sox players had their numbers fall a bit in 2017.

As for the DH argument, Gattis is not one of the top hitters in Houston's lineup. If they played in the NL (which they did for many years), they would still be the top lineup.

The key to the Cubs will be to see their defense return to the near historic 2016 levels. Needless to say, a good defense helps make the pitching look better.

Right now, I see the MLB becoming more like the NFL as a total of 7 teams (Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals in the NL, and Yankees, Red Sox, Astros and Indians) have legitimate chances to win the World Series. Realistically, nobody else has any chance of winning the World Series.

Last edited by Valuist; 03-23-2018 at 12:44 PM.
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Old 03-23-2018, 07:57 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valuist View Post
I'm a Cubs fan but I'm also a baseball bettor, so objectivity is important.

The Astros do have the top lineup in MLB. I believe WRC+ (Weighted runs created) is the single most important offensive number because it takes park into account; the media always believes Colorado has a great lineup but in reality it's only 2 guys, and that is reflected in a park adjusted stat like WRC+. Houston received a 121 last year. That was far better than the second best team, the Yankees at 108. The Cubs had a bit of a WS hangover, and came in only at 8th at 101 (they were tied for 3rd in 2016 with a 105). I'd put the Cubs in the top 5. A Dodger team without Justin Turner probably slots behind them. The top team in 2016? It was Boston at 114. That team had David Ortiz and a number of Red Sox players had their numbers fall a bit in 2017.

As for the DH argument, Gattis is not one of the top hitters in Houston's lineup. If they played in the NL (which they did for many years), they would still be the top lineup.

The key to the Cubs will be to see their defense return to the near historic 2016 levels. Needless to say, a good defense helps make the pitching look better.

Right now, I see the MLB becoming more like the NFL as a total of 7 teams (Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals in the NL, and Yankees, Red Sox, Astros and Indians) have legitimate chances to win the World Series. Realistically, nobody else has any chance of winning the World Series.
The Astros had the top lineup in MLB last year. That does not mean they will have the top lineup in 2018. Based on slash line (BA, OBP, SLG, OPS) Springer, Altuve, Correa, and Gonzalez all had career years in all four categories. Bregman and Reddick had career bests in three of those four measurements. Several of them by very wide margins.

To use a racing term, they are going to bounce.

Gattis is not one of the top hitters in Houston's lineup, but he is much better than whatever pitcher would be batting in his stead.


Fact is we are both guessing now. We shall see what happens.
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