Odds changes during races WHAT A JOKE

[cutchemist42]

Originally Posted by green80

Makes a good case for exchange betting.

I dont understand how its just widespread at this point.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by green80

Makes a good case for exchange betting.

Agree completely. Exchange betting seems like the best of both worlds between fixed odds through a book and pari mutuel betting. You'll know your odds ahead of time and you won't be limited in the amount of $ you can get down by the book.

I wonder if it's not more widely adopted because it's more complex to use?

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

If what I said sounded the least bit like that I need to say it differently.

What I said is that you may be able to get the same level of access as SuperTote or some ADWs get. In other words, a little sooner because the middleman has been eliminated.

But you would still be at the mercy of the tote system's built in updating methods. As far as I am aware, there is nothing that comes close to "tick-level" data.

Dave

Here's what you wrote:

"1. Actual money wagered on each ticket in Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinellas, and Daily Doubles. "

While the REPORTING of such may not be in real time like a tick feed, the data provided (ACTUAL MONEY WAGERED ON EACH TICKET) sounds a lot like a tick feed, where you see each and every trade and how many shares were traded...so you can spot, what they call in trading, a BLOCK TRADE (a BIG trade from what one would assume was an institutional investor or some other heavy hitter, which supposedly carries more weight than a 100 share, or $2 ticket).

Did you not mean to convey that if someone bet $10,000 to win on a horse, you would be able to see that information? Cause that's what it reads like to me. And that's why I likened it to a tick feed in trading, because that's where you spot large individual trades.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Here's what you wrote:

"1. Actual money wagered on each ticket in Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinellas, and Daily Doubles. "

While the REPORTING of such may not be in real time like a tick feed, the data provided (ACTUAL MONEY WAGERED ON EACH TICKET) sounds a lot like a tick feed, where you see each and every trade and how many shares were traded...so you can spot, what they call in trading, a BLOCK TRADE (a BIG trade from what one would assume was an institutional investor or some other heavy hitter, which supposedly carries more weight than a 100 share, or $2 ticket).

Did you not mean to convey that if someone bet $10,000 to win on a horse, you would be able to see that information? Cause that's what it reads like to me. And that's why I likened it to a tick feed in trading, because that's where you spot large individual trades.

Absolutely not. Sorry if I misled you.

I meant horse totals as opposed to individual bets.

I am not aware of anything other than totals being available.

When I think of "tick" data, I think of Forex (my only experience) and in that arena the data is not trade-by-trade, but rather in a time segment determined by the user and the software.

Again, sorry if I mislead you.

Dave

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Agree completely. Exchange betting seems like the best of both worlds between fixed odds through a book and pari mutuel betting. You'll know your odds ahead of time and you won't be limited in the amount of $ you can get down by the book.

I wonder if it's not more widely adopted because it's more complex to use?

The biggest problem with exchange wagering is that exotics are too complicated for most players to wager, and Americans love their exotics.

IMHO, that will completely stop ExW from getting a firm foothold here. Too bad, actually.


Dave

[cj]

Originally Posted by Denny

If it's possible to place bets at GP after the race starts, that's a federal crime.

Is anyone in the horseracing media, or any media, bringing this to the attention of government officials if they suspect it to be happening?

Or, is this just speculation and bs that people are spreading?
____

If bets are not happening after the bell, then who cares?

It's parimutuels after all and that's how they work! It's how they have always worked.

The sport won't survive if the majority of money is coming in so late that nobody really knows what the odds will be. How can you seriously participate in a gambling game having no idea what your price will be? All the fish bet, then all the sharks come in and swallow them up. The fish aren't going to continue to stick around for that feeding frenzy indefinitely.

[acorn54]

Originally Posted by cj

The sport won't survive if the majority of money is coming in so late that nobody really knows what the odds will be. How can you seriously participate in a gambling game having no idea what your price will be? All the fish bet, then all the sharks come in and swallow them up. The fish aren't going to continue to stick around for that feeding frenzy indefinitely.

i think the racing establishment is banking on the fact that 1/2 the horserace gamblers have a compulsive gambling problem. don't know if it's true but years ago i ran into a counselor who had clients that that had gambling "issues", and she told me at least 1/2 the horse gamblers in her practice were compulsive gamblers. not me of course (lol).

[green80]

Originally Posted by acorn54

i think the racing establishment is banking on the fact that 1/2 the horserace gamblers have a compulsive gambling problem. don't know if it's true but years ago i ran into a counselor who had clients that that had gambling "issues", and she told me at least 1/2 the horse gamblers in her practice were compulsive gamblers. not me of course (lol).

It's compulsive losing, not gambling, that is the problem. If the same guy goes to the track and wins money everyday, whats the problem? The counselor is trying to treat the wrong issue.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by green80

It's compulsive losing, not gambling, that is the problem. If the same guy goes to the track and wins money everyday, whats the problem? The counselor is trying to treat the wrong issue.

Now you sound like Doc Sartin back in the day.

[cutchemist42]

Originally Posted by cj

The sport won't survive if the majority of money is coming in so late that nobody really knows what the odds will be. How can you seriously participate in a gambling game having no idea what your price will be? All the fish bet, then all the sharks come in and swallow them up. The fish aren't going to continue to stick around for that feeding frenzy indefinitely.

Horse racing might very well be up against sports betting very soon. Both involve handicapping. One lets you compare that handicapping result to a fixed price. The other is making you compare your handicapping to a possible range of final odds.

How does horse racing survive against that?

[PaceAdvantage]

I get as frustrated as most of you do with the late odds moves...anyone who is a VIP sees this pretty regularly when I post my plays.

But, given that, I also don't get why this is such a huge problem for a lot of people.

Back before the CRW teams came about, did every horse go off near its morning line? You would make all your bets for the day before the first race goes off and you would get pretty much the price you expected in the end? Did they have fixed odds wagering back then? You see what I'm getting at...

OK, so today it's a little more extreme...however, if you wait until they are about to load into the gate, you pretty much KNOW what you're going to get within a certain range. You KNOW that 15-1 morning line shot isn't going off anywhere near 15-1...you know a horse that is 9/5 currently but 8/5 on the M/L is probably going lower when all is said and done. At smaller tracks, it might be down to even money or less...

Anyone who's played this game for a while lately knows that if you want a reasonable idea of what price a horse is going to be, you can't bet before they start loading the horses in...especially at the smaller handle tracks.

It sucks, I get it...but I don't see how this is an absolute game killer for people.

Remember, only 1 or 2% of people are long term winners...this has ALWAYS been the case, even before CRWs...it's not the late odds drops that are preventing people from becoming long term winners.

[Denny]

CJ,
I don't think it's anywhere near that dire.
Less than half of betting these days is on WPS - it's less every year.
People that like betting horses will shift their action even more away from straight betting.
Let the sharks devour themselves.
I'll just swim in the pools they're not involved in - like Pick 3's - a great bet to play anyway that's underutilized by most players imo.
I'm not going to abandon what i love doing because of crw.

[acorn54]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I get as frustrated as most of you do with the late odds moves...anyone who is a VIP sees this pretty regularly when I post my plays.

But, given that, I also don't get why this is such a huge problem for a lot of people.

Back before the CRW teams came about, did every horse go off near its morning line? You would make all your bets for the day before the first race goes off and you would get pretty much the price you expected in the end? Did they have fixed odds wagering back then? You see what I'm getting at...

OK, so today it's a little more extreme...however, if you wait until they are about to load into the gate, you pretty much KNOW what you're going to get within a certain range. You KNOW that 15-1 morning line shot isn't going off anywhere near 15-1...you know a horse that is 9/5 currently but 8/5 on the M/L is probably going lower when all is said and done. At smaller tracks, it might be down to even money or less...

Anyone who's played this game for a while lately knows that if you want a reasonable idea of what price a horse is going to be, you can't bet before they start loading the horses in...especially at the smaller handle tracks.

It sucks, I get it...but I don't see how this is an absolute game killer for people.

Remember, only 1 or 2% of people are long term winners...this has ALWAYS been the case, even before CRWs...it's not the late odds drops that are preventing people from becoming long term winners.

with all due respect pa. what curtailed my betting tremendously is the fact that there are so many more contenders scratched from what was a good betting race, and turns into a uncompetitve affair, because there is not enough "race'. also over the recent years the payoffs have habitually been much lower than in the years, before, making dime breakage a much heavier tax burden to bear.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I get as frustrated as most of you do with the late odds moves...anyone who is a VIP sees this pretty regularly when I post my plays.

But, given that, I also don't get why this is such a huge problem for a lot of people.

Back before the CRW teams came about, did every horse go off near its morning line? You would make all your bets for the day before the first race goes off and you would get pretty much the price you expected in the end? Did they have fixed odds wagering back then? You see what I'm getting at...

OK, so today it's a little more extreme...however, if you wait until they are about to load into the gate, you pretty much KNOW what you're going to get within a certain range. You KNOW that 15-1 morning line shot isn't going off anywhere near 15-1...you know a horse that is 9/5 currently but 8/5 on the M/L is probably going lower when all is said and done. At smaller tracks, it might be down to even money or less...

Anyone who's played this game for a while lately knows that if you want a reasonable idea of what price a horse is going to be, you can't bet before they start loading the horses in...especially at the smaller handle tracks.

It sucks, I get it...but I don't see how this is an absolute game killer for people.

Remember, only 1 or 2% of people are long term winners...this has ALWAYS been the case, even before CRWs...it's not the late odds drops that are preventing people from becoming long term winners.

I did A TON of blind betting back in the 90s. Yes, there would be some degree of variance from the anticipated M/L back then but it seems worse now.

And even if everything is on the up and up, the perception is bad. And if potential new players have a bad perception of the process, they likely will not become new players.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by acorn54

i think the racing establishment is banking on the fact that 1/2 the horserace gamblers have a compulsive gambling problem. don't know if it's true but years ago i ran into a counselor who had clients that that had gambling "issues", and she told me at least 1/2 the horse gamblers in her practice were compulsive gamblers. not me of course (lol).

Yes, this is true. This is why the industry does not address issues like odd's changing, and other issues such as timing and take out. Why should they, when in their view, the consumer will come back because he is "addicted". How would a sports bettor feel if after placing a $22.00 bet on the Eagles in the Superbowl, the next day his bookie gave him $30.00 instead of $40.00 and said all the late money went on the Eagles, so the odds changed. A blackjack player puts a $100.00 bet on one hand but after he draws 20 the casino tells him he can only win $50.00. But the nature of wagering in horse racing, is always going to have swings in the odds. I do not know how many times I have bet a horse at 6-1 that will come from off the pace, and holding my breath when the horse moves into contention, not because he might win, but because I know that when they put his number on the screen, he might be 2-1. The problem is not the change, but the fact that it takes so long for the change to be seen. If the odds board showed the final odds before the first quarter of the race was run, every time, there would be much less questioning of what is happening. But, after all, the tracks will not address the issue because their customers are "addicted".