Zig zagging in the stretch

[bisket]

Everyone looks at statistical historicals to guide their derby wagers. Many of the winners of preps this year have lugged in or out, not changed lead, or changed them multiple times in the stretch. I’ve been wagering on the derby for 45 years and I can’t remember one winner doing this in the stretch. I could be wrong, does anyone remember a winner that didn’t run professionally in the stretch? I remember a few years ago the events on the turn and we had our first disqualification. This could eliminate some of the favorites in this race.

[Wiley]

I had a similar thought while watching a head on of Sierra Leone veering left in the stretch of the Blue Grass. Looking just as much at his paddle wheel front left action too. SL was also reluctant to load in that race, took them quite awhile to get in the gate almost to the point of looking like a scratch. Vekoma is the last one I can remember with that type of drastic front action.

I remember Sunday Silence took a couple of weird steps mid stretch of his Derby, but that was a drying out track and thought it more due to that as he straightened up pretty quick afterwards.

Bet Twice did a weird veer out into Alysheba mid stretch, ended up running second. Alydar never changed leads and ran second.

I'm like you, I don't remember a horse running green and winning the Derby, at least in my racing lifetime of also around 45 years.

These are all just from memory so there might be others I am missing.

I think the lack of seasoning in most all of these horses is a contributing factor now and it will come to a point where a goof ball runner will win it.

Marfa and Gate Dancer were considered goof ball runners in their time. It probably cost Gate Dancer a few wins, like the inaugural running of the Classic.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Wiley

Marfa and Gate Dancer were considered goof ball runners in their time. It probably cost Gate Dancer a few wins, like the inaugural running of the Classic.

I was in attendance when Tom Van Berg (Jack's son) was Nancy Holthus's guest for Dawn at Oaklawn this past Saturday. I believe it's available on YouTube, but not sure if this next part came when he was answering questions/talking after the "formal" part was finished:

He had talked about (and showed) the famous Gate Dancer earmuffs. The horse's reputation for lugging in/out preceded him to the Classic. Van Berg said that when the objection came, they were convinced that it was the inside horse coming out for the bumping. He said if you look at the harrow marks, Gate Dancer keeps a straight course.

[Bustin Stones]

The thing to like about Leone is that he's passing horses like it's a turf race. It makes me believe that if he can find an open route to the wire, he'll be dangerous.

[bisket]

The thing you have to think about with the runners that aren’t changing leads is Churchill and Pimlico have two of the longest stretches in the country. Alydar was classier than any of these. Sierra Leone was one I had in mind with this post. Probably a better bet for place and show in the verticals than first.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Wiley

I had a similar thought while watching a head on of Sierra Leone veering left in the stretch of the Blue Grass. Looking just as much at his paddle wheel front left action too. SL was also reluctant to load in that race, took them quite awhile to get in the gate almost to the point of looking like a scratch. Vekoma is the last one I can remember with that type of drastic front action.

I remember Sunday Silence took a couple of weird steps mid stretch of his Derby, but that was a drying out track and thought it more due to that as he straightened up pretty quick afterwards.

Bet Twice did a weird veer out into Alysheba mid stretch, ended up running second. Alydar never changed leads and ran second.

I'm like you, I don't remember a horse running green and winning the Derby, at least in my racing lifetime of also around 45 years.

These are all just from memory so there might be others I am missing.

I think the lack of seasoning in most all of these horses is a contributing factor now and it will come to a point where a goof ball runner will win it.

Marfa and Gate Dancer were considered goof ball runners in their time. It probably cost Gate Dancer a few wins, like the inaugural running of the Classic.

The thing with this year is there are multiple runners that fit into this column. lol this is something I haven’t had to think about until this year. My best bet to win this will be running straight that I know.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Wiley

I think the lack of seasoning in most all of these horses is a contributing factor now and it will come to a point where a goof ball runner will win it.

You nailed it with that comment! It's obviously a Major factor.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by bisket

Everyone looks at statistical historicals to guide their derby wagers. Many of the winners of preps this year have lugged in or out, not changed lead, or changed them multiple times in the stretch. I’ve been wagering on the derby for 45 years and I can’t remember one winner doing this in the stretch. I could be wrong, does anyone remember a winner that didn’t run professionally in the stretch? I remember a few years ago the events on the turn and we had our first disqualification. This could eliminate some of the favorites in this race.

I don’t know the stats but as a handicapping opinion . I don’t like any stakes horses doing it . The margin for error in high stakes racing is slim . Of course, there are times you see it and the horse is just lengths better anyway . Plus, with the retirements and defections the level of competition and field size has shrunk. Once you get past the Triple Crown you can cherry pick races now . But the next race after that it’s something to be wary of if it’s a full field like the derby . Because it’s often a sign of fatigue. These horses have hardly raced so it could be green running or a combination of both . And you’re right , there was some sloppy running in a few of these final preps.
The other thing to think about is the plus 100,000 attending . Many of these horses have a handful of starts , if that horse has a nervous or discipline problem. It’s a bad combo . The DQ you are talking about cost me good . And I thought part of the problem was that horse reacted to roar of the crowd. Sometimes I think some people that are never really around horses under appreciate how easily some of them can be unnerved. It’s true in all sports , often the coolest head prevails. A horse can’t talk but human athletes will say they try to slow the game down and breathe normally. Without mentally getting worked up.

[wiretowire68]

This comment is bang on... He was green and lugged in, because they are still learning. I am just not sure if he run from that far back and make it in time even with the longer distance and to be quite honest I still do not trust Gaffalione as the rider on this especially in traffic. I would have trusted Ortiz on this horse before him but Irad is set up with Klaravich so...... This race will be quite interesting as usual ...SL reminds of a much more talented Goldenscents or Commanding Curve...pure dead closers who just could not get there. It will really depend on how strung out they get on the back stretch.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

The thing to like about Leone is that he's passing horses like it's a turf race. It makes me believe that if he can find an open route to the wire, he'll be dangerous.

I see and I like this. lol that’s what’s so tuff about this year. The pp’s aren’t out yet, but I’m gonna really take a good look at the horses he has past in the stretch. I get Formulator so I can look at every horse in his races past performances.

[bisket]

Originally Posted by burnsy

I don’t know the stats but as a handicapping opinion . I don’t like any stakes horses doing it . The margin for error in high stakes racing is slim . Of course, there are times you see it and the horse is just lengths better anyway . Plus, with the retirements and defections the level of competition and field size has shrunk. Once you get past the Triple Crown you can cherry pick races now . But the next race after that it’s something to be wary of if it’s a full field like the derby . Because it’s often a sign of fatigue. These horses have hardly raced so it could be green running or a combination of both . And you’re right , there was some sloppy running in a few of these final preps.
The other thing to think about is the plus 100,000 attending . Many of these horses have a handful of starts , if that horse has a nervous or discipline problem. It’s a bad combo . The DQ you are talking about cost me good . And I thought part of the problem was that horse reacted to roar of the crowd. Sometimes I think some people that are never really around horses under appreciate how easily some of them can be unnerved. It’s true in all sports , often the coolest head prevails. A horse can’t talk but human athletes will say they try to slow the game down and breathe normally. Without mentally getting worked up.

I agree with this. No way you win a grade 1 running like that. There are so many preps that the good ones can avoid each other. Later this year a lot of runners in these fields will be in allowance and listed stakes.So they might not be beating graded quality horses while running greenly.

[46zilzal]

Originally Posted by bisket

Everyone looks at statistical historicals to guide their derby wagers. Many of the winners of preps this year have lugged in or out, not changed lead, or changed them multiple times in the stretch. I’ve been wagering on the derby for 45 years and I can’t remember one winner doing this in the stretch. I could be wrong, does anyone remember a winner that didn’t run professionally in the stretch? I remember a few years ago the events on the turn and we had our first disqualification. This could eliminate some of the favorites in this race.

Charismatic?