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Old 07-27-2020, 07:21 PM   #16
FakeNameChanged
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Great Thread!
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Old 07-28-2020, 09:24 AM   #17
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Explore the reasons you're losing and what you overlooked on what beat you. Perhaps you will see a pattern there. I like dime supers for the cost, challenge, and potential payouts. I noticed many of the dime supers I was missing were the result of simply having a horse in the third or fourth rung on my pyramid end up finishing one rung higher. I've been playing them a little deeper lately. Will see if that helps the ROI.
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Old 07-28-2020, 12:32 PM   #18
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Consider yourself lucky.
If you are not a whale or a computer wizz, this is not a game you probably want to bother with.

Try the Lotto. Less horse s***.
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Old 07-28-2020, 05:25 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigadam119 View Post
I’m in a slump the last month or so. It’s been really bad the first two weeks of the Saratoga meet. I’m just not seeing winners or place or show horses for that matter. I’m not the greatest handicapper, but I’ve been taught a lot on here by all of you. This has helped me to have some decent days and make a few nice bets.
I would seem to have more of those decent days during the Saratoga meet as the big fields and “hidden horses” being pointed to the meet would help my style. As I said, this year it’s been tough so far.

With that being said, what do you do in the tough stretches?
I see a number of very good answers down this stream.
I love Saratoga. It's one of my favorite meets. But like others have said, it can be very tough. Whenever I hit a bad streak the first thing I do is quit spending my money doing what isn't working. But I never stop capping. I either try to make adjustments in my play or just wait until results show my capping is the current trend.
If my capping is solid but I'm not winning at a profitable rate I move to 3H EX box bets. That usually does the trick. But only winning beats not losing. If you aren't winning, PASS until you feel confident from results of your capping to spend more of your bank.
I'm also a guy who feels fine with giving up high strike rate in order to play horses that will pay big dividends. I know going in I will have to weather some dry times. But when it rain, it pours!
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Old 07-28-2020, 05:40 PM   #20
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Easier said than done but in Kipling's word treat those two impostors of 'Triumph and Disaster' just the same. I've found the trick is not to change anything, If you can win in the long term then changing to reflect short term problems just leads to problems in the long term.

My longest losing streak was 22 races followed by a very short priced favourite who obliged then followed by another 17 losses. I now make doubly sure that I can survive those kinds of streaks. In my records that slump barely registers now.
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Old 07-28-2020, 07:33 PM   #21
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As someone who hasn't put money on this yet:

I don't know what you are playing, but realize that picking winners for these races is really hard, especially with larger fields where your odds decrease.

No matter how good your information is, the jockey might always make a stupid move or the horse might just not be into it that day.

Horse racing is not like missing a basketball shot or something, where you can improve. You're dealing with live animals who don't even know what they are really doing or why and trying to make sense of it doesn't make much sense.

Last edited by KingAnon; 07-28-2020 at 07:40 PM.
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Old 07-28-2020, 09:00 PM   #22
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I believe you have to specialize in one type of bet, i.e., win, ex, tri, sup or what ever. You must find it has an especially good return on average. Do not forget when betting Win you have to overcome the takeout. If a race has 8 horses and the 4 horses are 3:2 to 3:1 range you are playing with fire cause there is actually a 5th horse in that mix. It is called takeout.
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Old 07-29-2020, 07:55 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigadam119 View Post
I’m in a slump the last month or so. It’s been really bad the first two weeks of the Saratoga meet. I’m just not seeing winners or place or show horses for that matter. I’m not the greatest handicapper, but I’ve been taught a lot on here by all of you. This has helped me to have some decent days and make a few nice bets.
I would seem to have more of those decent days during the Saratoga meet as the big fields and “hidden horses” being pointed to the meet would help my style. As I said, this year it’s been tough so far.

With that being said, what do you do in the tough stretches?

Saratoga can humble the best handicappers. The races are wide open, the turf courses have tight turns, the track can be tiring at times but can change on a dime. I tend to bet lightly if the horses aren't running the way I feel they should and I press (bet heavier) when things are going well. Some people say that you should always bet the same. If you have no instincts, I guess that makes sense but part of being a smart gambler is taking advantage of hot streaks (and not getting destroyed during cold streaks).

If it's not working for me at a track during a meet, I switch and play other tracks where I've done well in the past. There's no reason to press a track that isn't working for you.

Last edited by pandy; 07-29-2020 at 07:59 AM.
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Old 07-29-2020, 10:06 AM   #24
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I tend to bet lightly if the horses aren't running the way I feel they should and I press (bet heavier) when things are going well. Some people say that you should always bet the same.

If it's not working for me at a track during a meet, I switch and play other tracks where I've done well in the past. There's no reason to press a track that isn't working for you.
Along those lines, sometimes circumstances change what's working.

Decades ago if a horse was coming off a layoff, you could downgrade it and then expect a sharper performance 2nd off a layoff. Over the years, a lot more trainers got better at bringing horses back at or close to 100% even for graded stakes.

I haven't checked the data, but "seems" like I've seen a few more horses than usual come back short of their best after the Covid break and then jump up 2nd after a layoff. Until I check the data, it may just be that I saw a few high profile ones and it make a false impression. But if I am right that would be an example of where the game changed in the short term due to unique temporary circumstances and could throw you off for awhile.
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