Ritvo era begins at Santa Anita. “Takeout is too high, no question about it"

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The elimination of the rebates is a good thing for the average player...for two reasons:

1.) The Whales will become extinct...and we won't have to deal with that suspicious late tote-board action any longer.

2.) Without the Whale-money in the pools, the waning betting interest of the average horseplayer will become much more evident...and this might wake the industry up from its deep sleep.

great idea

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am not playing politics, think about it, if you walk up to the window in vegas to bet a baseball game and the vigorish is 10% you pay the same vig no matter what the odds are on the game. its the same in horse racing

You are lumping breakage in with vig which isn't correct.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by AndyC

Gosh, that's reassuring. I will feel much better the next time a horse is bet at 3-1 as the gate opens and is 7-5 when it hits the stretch. While I agree for the most part that the tote is secure, the fact that the odds changes are so dramatic makes certain bets unplayable. It's a dual problem, perception and reality.

I believe it's that some people are able to cancel a couple seconds into the race rather than betting more seconds into the race. Think Oaklawn has/had a 7 second cancel delay.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by AndyC

You are lumping breakage in with vig which isn't correct.

i only used the example that the most they take for breakage is .19, but that may not be the case with larger payoffs in certain places the breakage can even be more.

not wanting to argue any longer, with the age of the computer, why not get rid of breakage all together? this way it wouldn't matter if i am right or wrong on it.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i only used the example that the most they take for breakage is .19, but that may not be the case with larger payoffs in certain places the breakage can even be more.

not wanting to argue any longer, with the age of the computer, why not get rid of breakage all together? this way it wouldn't matter if i am right or wrong on it.

Yes, I concur on eliminating breakage.

I call this an enthusiastic discussion, not an argument.

One example and then I will end the breakage discussion.
Take a win pool with exactly $100,000 bet and a takeout % of exactly 15%.
To have a horse pay $3.39 there would have to be $50,148 on it leaving $34,852 for the winning tickets to split. (100,000 - 15,000 - 50148 =34,582)
Because of breakage the track will only pay $30,088, or $4,764 less than the amount available. The effective takeout for that bet is 19.764%. (15,000 + 4,764)/100,000.

Same pool and takeout rate. To have a horse pay $10.39 there would have to be $16,362 bet on it leaving $68,638 for the winning tickets to split (100,000 - 15,000 -16,362 = 68,638). Because of breakage the track will only pay $67,084, or $1,554 less than the amount available. The effective takeout for that bet is 16.554%. (15,000 + 1,554)/100,000

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Breakage is a revenue stream for the track. In 2014-15, breakage was worth $7.9 million in CA.

According to the CHRB, a total of $3,095,263,930 was wagered by fans of California racing during FY 2014-15, and of the money, 79 percent ($2,450,117,734) was returned to winning ticket holders. That appears to make the blended takeout 21%. How anyone who understands takeout doesn't think that is outrageous mystifies me.

The track has multiple revenue streams beyond handle and breakage, from admission to parking to programs.

The point is that if you delete any revenue stream, unless you can equivalently reduce expenditures, some other part of the total revenue stream has to make up the difference. The problem for horseplayers is really intractable.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

Breakage is a revenue stream for the track. In 2014-15, breakage was worth $7.9 million in CA.

According to the CHRB, a total of $3,095,263,930 was wagered by fans of California racing during FY 2014-15, and of the money, 79 percent ($2,450,117,734) was returned to winning ticket holders. That appears to make the blended takeout 21%. How anyone who understands takeout doesn't think that is outrageous mystifies me.

The track has multiple revenue streams beyond handle and breakage, from admission to parking to programs.

The point is that if you delete any revenue stream, unless you can equivalently reduce expenditures, some other part of the total revenue stream has to make up the difference. The problem for horseplayers is really intractable.

Gotta start with WPS to the penny. If I remember right WPS amounts to about 30% of handle.

Then....

Let ADW's/self serve machines have a "keep the change" option and an option to donate more if you make a score. Some of breakage goes to backstretch workers and permanently disabled jockeys which are great causes. The donation option would more than make up for the revenue from WPS breakage and allow them to pay to the penny. And if they don't want to pay pennies they can give the tellers a few rolls of nickels and round up at the windows.

[thaskalos]

Isn't Ritvo the guy who crowed about how great a bet the Rainbow-6 is for the horseplayer? How come he wasn't making these anti-takeout declarations when he was at Gulfstream? My feeling is that he is just "talking"...hoping that the horseplayers will get excited just from the CONVERSATION about the possible lowering of the SA takeouts.

Ta SAY something is easy...but actually DOING it is something else entirely. With the speed that things move in this game, even if the desire for real change is there (which I doubt)...Santa Anita could be dead and BURIED before any real action is taken on the takeout issue. I predict another band-aid cure in California...as in another "low-takeout" sucker bet like the Rainbow-6.

[AlsoEligible]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

please don't be naive. i can't pin point it in throroghbred's but i know someone has to be getting into the pools after the bell has rung.

this happened a few years ago with an exacta at Yonkers that everyone complained about, in 12 seconds flat i responded right on this board where it came from. 6 months later it was verified and to this day they are still gate punching at this particular venue.


i happen to be someone that gate punched for over 25 years until the end of the last century. there were articles about me in the New York Daily News and Post when co-mingled simulcasting first started. it took those articles to stop me at New York tracks after 2 years of swinging away at them. there were still other tracks that had a wide open bell. i doubt that there is any afterthebell going on at racetracks any longer, but i would guess that someone that bets with the Isle of Mann hub is getting down into the race.

It's not naivety, it's a decade of experience working with tote systems all over the world. Including the Isle of Mann, which contrary to popular opinion, is not some lawless utopia where whales get special access to data and pools unavailable to the public, or get to wager on races that took place last week.

Seems that you're talking about gate punching in the 90s, at the very beginning of simulcasting. I don't doubt that this was a much more prevalent issue then. But not today. The way these systems are all interconnected now, not to mention independent auditors who review the close times from every hub for every race...no system has a secret "past-post betting" switch, and if they do stay open late (which is usually only due to a hardware/software or network failure), the host knows about it and removes that money from the co-mingled pools.

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

I believe it's that some people are able to cancel a couple seconds into the race rather than betting more seconds into the race. Think Oaklawn has/had a 7 second cancel delay.

I think cancel delays are pretty much a thing of the past now, but I can't confirm it for every track. You may be right about Oaklawn still having one. But that's not really contributing to the late shifts. It's boils down to two separate but related causes:

First, that we allow betting right up to second horses break from the gate. At that point, the host tote has to send a stop betting signal to every other tote all over the world. Then those remote totes have to send back their final pool totals for the race. The host then has to re-calculate the final odds, and send those odds back to the tote board. It just takes time to complete that process, and no matter how fast the tote network is, it'll never be instantaneous.

Second, odds are only updated every 45-60 seconds. So when horses are loading, you may be looking at odds that are up to a minute old..and a lot of money can make it's way in during those final 60 seconds, especially from the whales. So when the pools lock, and all of that last-minute money is calculated, the final odds can be dramatically different.

The solution being proposed around the country - and already in place at several tracks - is to increase how often the odds update as post time approaches. Every 10-15 seconds, rather than every 45-60. You still get a lot of last-minute money coming in, but the theory is that if the odds are being updated more frequently, you won't see such dramatic shifts on the tote board. The data we've seen so far would seem to back that up.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

I think cancel delays are pretty much a thing of the past now, but I can't confirm it for every track. You may be right about Oaklawn still having one. But that's not really contributing to the late shifts. It's boils down to two separate but related causes:

First, that we allow betting right up to second horses break from the gate. At that point, the host tote has to send a stop betting signal to every other tote all over the world. Then those remote totes have to send back their final pool totals for the race. The host then has to re-calculate the final odds, and send those odds back to the tote board. It just takes time to complete that process, and no matter how fast the tote network is, it'll never be instantaneous.

Second, odds are only updated every 45-60 seconds. So when horses are loading, you may be looking at odds that are up to a minute old..and a lot of money can make it's way in during those final 60 seconds, especially from the whales. So when the pools lock, and all of that last-minute money is calculated, the final odds can be dramatically different.

The solution being proposed around the country - and already in place at several tracks - is to increase how often the odds update as post time approaches. Every 10-15 seconds, rather than every 45-60. You still get a lot of last-minute money coming in, but the theory is that if the odds are being updated more frequently, you won't see such dramatic shifts on the tote board. The data we've seen so far would seem to back that up.

I have a better idea, a more radical one, that would never happen but would take care of the whole thing.

Give the starter, who can't see the tote board and is licensed by the state, a switch, and allow him or her to hit it and cut off betting worldwide at any point after the first horse is loaded.

If you did that, there would simply be no way to pull these shenanigans, and the last click of the tote board would likely happen before or at the start. Further, if anyone is timing their bets to go in at the last second, they would be flustered, because they wouldn't know when the last second was. They would have to bet earlier and other players would get to see their action.

Sure, some folks would be shut out at the windows, but that's a risk they take.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Gotta start with WPS to the penny. If I remember right WPS amounts to about 30% of handle.......

And probably about 60% of the breakage.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

Breakage is a revenue stream for the track. In 2014-15, breakage was worth $7.9 million in CA.

According to the CHRB, a total of $3,095,263,930 was wagered by fans of California racing during FY 2014-15, and of the money, 79 percent ($2,450,117,734) was returned to winning ticket holders. That appears to make the blended takeout 21%. How anyone who understands takeout doesn't think that is outrageous mystifies me.

The track has multiple revenue streams beyond handle and breakage, from admission to parking to programs.

The point is that if you delete any revenue stream, unless you can equivalently reduce expenditures, some other part of the total revenue stream has to make up the difference. The problem for horseplayers is really intractable.

Another interesting report from the CHRB is their annual Statistical Report of Operation under the Statistics Tab. I looked at SA statistics for 2014 - 2015.

Takeout Summary Report
Date range: 12/26/2014 – 12/25/2015
Race type: All Races
Hosts: Santa Anita
Locations: All locations
Tracks: All Tracks / On Track

.. Total to Purses $ 43,638,347.28
.. Tot to track 36,280,812.49 $79,919,159.77 8.57%

.. Commingle Guests 76,312,712.70 76,312,712.70 8.18%

.. Interstate Hosts 5,498,946.57 5,498,946.57 0.06%

.. Other * 10,355,171.09
.. Total Sim Distrib 18,352,864.27
.. Owner's Premium 287,982.76
.. Tot Breeder/Sires 3 ,106,481.86 32,102,499,98 3.44%

.. Retained from Public $193,833,319.02 $193,833,319.02 20.78%

.. Payable to Public $ 739,061,627.98

.. Total Handle $ 932,894,947.00
.. SB 16 Saving $4,501,612.30

Also, SB 16 License Relief was $10,379,780.34 offsets License fees, breakage, exotic license etc.

I don't know how this breakage is related to the reported breakage under Purses and Total to Track.

Other * includes … CHRB Support, Equine Lab, Workers Comp, City Taxes and F and E Fund – 19614 (d).

Questions which I have are:

What is the Commingle Guests Takeout?
It appears to be double the Purse / Track takeout.

Is it Funding for next year’s Purses and Track expenses?
So, it appears the current payouts are shorted by this Commingled Guest amount.

How does this impact the ability to offer Rebates?

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

Another interesting report from the CHRB is their annual Statistical Report of Operation under the Statistics Tab. I looked at SA statistics for 2014 - 2015.

Takeout Summary Report
Date range: 12/26/2014 – 12/25/2015
Race type: All Races
Hosts: Santa Anita
Locations: All locations
Tracks: All Tracks / On Track

.. Total to Purse................$ 43,638,347.28
.. Tot to track......................36,280,812.49.......... $79,919,159.77.....8.57%

.. Commingle Guests............76,312,712.70..........76,312,712.70.. ...8.18%

.. Interstate Hosts................5,498,946.57..............5,4 98,946.57.....0.06%

.. Other *............................10,355,171.09
.. Total Sim Distrib................18,352,864.27
.. Owner's Premium..................287,982.76
.. Tot Breeder/Sires................3,106,481.86.............32,1 02,499,98.....3.44%

.. Retained from Public........$193,833,319.02.........$193,833,319 .02....20.78%

.. Payable to Public..............$739,061,627.98

.. Total Handle.....................$932,894,947.00
.. SB 16 Saving.......................$4,501,612.30

Also, SB 16 License Relief was $10,379,780.34 offsets License fees, breakage, exotic license etc.

I don't know how this breakage is related to the reported breakage under Purses and Total to Track.

Other * includes … CHRB Support, Equine Lab, Workers Comp, City Taxes and F and E Fund – 19614 (d).

Questions which I have are:

What is the Commingle Guests Takeout?
It appears to be double the Purse / Track takeout.

Is it Funding for next year’s Purses and Track expenses?
So, it appears the current payouts are shorted by this Commingled Guest amount.

How does this impact the ability to offer Rebates?

Tried to reformat my post, hopefully it works.

Also have additional questions.

What is SB 16 License Relief and where does the money go?

I still don't understand the Commingle Guests Takeout. Is it a slush fund which the custodian (Track) can do with as they wish?

I understand slush fund.

I calculated the SA amounts taken out from 2012 - 2016 and it amounted to $376,481,439.13 which is still 8.2% of the total handle of $4,596,286,657.71.

The Purse & Track distribution is $407,710,068.56 or 8.9%.

[redlandb]

How about not having 30 minutes in between each fricking race. No "new" casual fan can spend 5 hours going to the track to watch all the card. Golf and baseball have the same problem. Our lives are too busy for the time commitment. You think I am full of BS? You try taking your kids to the "slower than hell" racetrack. I went to Lone Star today and left after 5 races, because I couldn't take it, and I love racing.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by redlandb

How about not having 30 minutes in between each fricking race. No "new" casual fan can spend 5 hours going to the track to watch all the card. Golf and baseball have the same problem. Our lives are too busy for the time commitment. You think I am full of BS? You try taking your kids to the "slower than hell" racetrack. I went to Lone Star today and left after 5 races, because I couldn't take it, and I love racing.

you are right about the dragged on day's in racing. on regular overnight races its pretty boring to watch. but i did like the way the Royal Ascot was run, they had plenty of time between races but they only had 6 races a day. it was a very exiting week of racing there this year.