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08-01-2018, 06:01 AM
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#151
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: East Hartford, Connecticut
Posts: 47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
My experience - which I've not measured in quite a while - is that the pct of pool varies wildly by track but is based upon two things:
1. Handle in a particular pool
2. Net takeout to the bettor
#2 is highly dependent upon the rebate available. My estimates of handle vary from 34% at MNR to 4%-6% at CD, SA, etc.
I have no current data to share and no conclusive proof. (Hence the word, "estimate.")
These numbers are why I believe that LOW REBATE tracks are actually best for most players. They simply are playing against less smart money.
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Thanx to all for a very intelligent thread.
Boy, that % of handle at the major tracks seems low. Having said that, I have no stats to refute your estimate.
With regard to late betting whales, since I only bet horses at double digit odds, sometimes my odds come down and more often go up. I don't need to be right very often. If I were trying to grind out with short priced horses, that would be tough against those guys.
I never really thought about concentrating my action at tracks with a low whale % of handle. It certainly makes sense to bet against squares than against sophisticated computer programs. I tend to make my selection of a track to play for a particular day on field size and weather.
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08-01-2018, 10:29 AM
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#152
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Hey ALL....
Had some time and ran this up ....
I know Gulfstream shows tote as horses load so I did 2 days (28-29)
of course nothing is consistent with tote showing before race 
So I wrote tote as of 0 mins and then final odds from charts...
Give me yours thoughts or tell me I'm an idiot for wasting my time 
Mike
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08-01-2018, 10:40 AM
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#153
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Home
Posts: 342
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Interesting that several times the odds went up. Any reason you didn’t do all the races those days?
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08-01-2018, 11:00 AM
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#154
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fox
Interesting that several times the odds went up. Any reason you didn’t do all the races those days?
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Tote wasn't showing at beginning of replay..
But I know guys here have comprehensive tote action in their arsenal...
Mike
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08-01-2018, 11:01 AM
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#155
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fox
Interesting that several times the odds went up. Any reason you didn’t do all the races those days?
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Also, if your horse is long odds ....they are pretty much out of it..
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08-01-2018, 03:22 PM
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#156
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Code:
Code:
"Indiana Grand
Race
3
Post
3:01
MTP
2
$2 Exacta Pool
$10,079" FORMULA ---L--- BETTING MATRIX BET TOP RANK WHEN BET SIZE>0,<200. BET SECOND RANK w and ex WHEN TOP RANK BET SIZE >=200
pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 pgno
7 0 0 91 0 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
1 0 7 19 10 21 0 0 9 4 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
talk about late money
the above matrix has an exacta pool of $10,079
here is a matrix with $44,000+
the exacta was 7/1
Code:
Code:
"Indiana Grand
Race
3
Post
3:06
MTP
0
$2 Exacta Pool
$44,882" FORMULA ---L--- BETTING MATRIX BET TOP RANK WHEN BET SIZE>0,<200. BET SECOND RANK w and ex WHEN TOP RANK BET SIZE >=200
pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 pgno total line bet
7 263 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 282
1 0 7 26 10 26 0 0 10 5 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100the
first matrix was a loss
the second matrix won
$282 line bet returned $755 __________________
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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08-01-2018, 03:35 PM
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#157
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
Code:
Code:
"Indiana Grand
Race
3
Post
3:01
MTP
2
$2 Exacta Pool
$10,079" FORMULA ---L--- BETTING MATRIX BET TOP RANK WHEN BET SIZE>0,<200. BET SECOND RANK w and ex WHEN TOP RANK BET SIZE >=200
pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 pgno
7 0 0 91 0 103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
1 0 7 19 10 21 0 0 9 4 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
talk about late money
the above matrix has an exacta pool of $10,079
here is a matrix with $44,000+
the exacta was 7/1
Code:
Code:
"Indiana Grand
Race
3
Post
3:06
MTP
0
$2 Exacta Pool
$44,882" FORMULA ---L--- BETTING MATRIX BET TOP RANK WHEN BET SIZE>0,<200. BET SECOND RANK w and ex WHEN TOP RANK BET SIZE >=200
pgno 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 pgno total line bet
7 263 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 282
1 0 7 26 10 26 0 0 10 5 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 100the
first matrix was a loss
the second matrix won
$282 line bet returned $755 __________________ |
Form....
one day
You gotta explain what we are seeing....
Sorry...I'm a idiot most times..
Mike
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08-01-2018, 04:18 PM
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#158
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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SORRY. IT'S LIKE YOU WERE READINGTHE EXACTA PROABLE PAYOUT BOARD, EXCEPT I SHOW THE BET SIZES AND NOT THE PAYOUTS.
TOP LINE IS THE 7 HORSE WITH ALL THE BET SIZES FOR THE VARIOUS COMBINATIONS.
EXAMPLE, THE 7/1 COMBINATION BET SIZE IS $263 IN THE SECOND MATRIX (0 MINUETS TO POST)
SAME FOR THE SECOND LINE
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
Last edited by formula_2002; 08-01-2018 at 04:21 PM.
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08-01-2018, 04:40 PM
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#159
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
SORRY. IT'S LIKE YOU WERE READINGTHE EXACTA PROABLE PAYOUT BOARD, EXCEPT I SHOW THE BET SIZES AND NOT THE PAYOUTS.
TOP LINE IS THE 7 HORSE WITH ALL THE BET SIZES FOR THE VARIOUS COMBINATIONS.
EXAMPLE, THE 7/1 COMBINATION BET SIZE IS $263 IN THE SECOND MATRIX (0 MINUETS TO POST)
SAME FOR THE SECOND LINE
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So ...
This chart is saying at 2 mins to post there was no money on the 7/1 combo
and at o mins....the 7/1 combo got money totaling $263
Right?
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08-01-2018, 05:38 PM
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#160
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
So ...
This chart is saying at 2 mins to post there was no money on the 7/1 combo
and at o mins....the 7/1 combo got money totaling $263
Right?
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you got that right.
Yesterdays 4th at mountaineer was another big swing.
from nothing to a $3054 return for the 4/5 exacta . total line size bet was $440
note 52 in the selection forum.. my "L SYSTEM"
THE 7/1 EXACTA PLAY WAS NOTE 57
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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08-01-2018, 06:31 PM
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#161
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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ADDED SAratoga 8-1
Figure it out ..I'm tired
Mike
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08-02-2018, 02:52 AM
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#162
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vegasone
Interesting but not really all that terrible.
Assuming you are a competent handicapper and can weed out all the really bad contenders it can still be viable. These quick numbers include entries, and all field sizes for 2018 so far.
20195 races 2018
mutuels
3258 races $4 payout or less
10003 between $4 and 10.01
4430 between $10 and $20.01
14433 between $4 and $20.01
1793 between $20-40.01
445 between $40.01-62
237 greater $62
>$20 mutuel is approximate 12%
48657 races year 2010
mutuels
6022 $4 payout or less
23840 between $4 and 10.01
35029 between $4 and $20.01
11630 between $10 to $20.01
4621 between $20-40.01
1132 between $40.01-62
783 greater $62
>$20 mutuel is approx 13%
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About 1 out of every 8 races pays $20+ to win. This is very interesting, and the fact it hasn't changed much in 8 years, very hopeful.
Odds-on have gone from well over 1 out of 8 to less than 1 out of 7, while $4 to $10 has stayed pretty much the same. That means $10 to $20 is getting cannibalized. More of the $4-$10 are now odds on, more of the $10-$20 have found their way into the $4-$10, and those $10-$20 aren't being replaced by less $20+.
A horse you used to get 7/5 on is now 4/5, a horse you'd get 9/2 on is now 3/1 or 7/2, but a horse you used to get 12/1 on, you're still pretty much getting 12/1 on.
Very nice info Vegasone. Great info as a matter of fact. And you're right. If you can efficiently eliminate the non-contenders 10/1+ and leave yourself with the live $20+ horses, you could go a long way in cracking this nut.
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08-02-2018, 03:31 AM
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#163
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Seattle
Posts: 3,943
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vegasone
Interesting but not really all that terrible.
Assuming you are a competent handicapper and can weed out all the really bad contenders it can still be viable. These quick numbers include entries, and all field sizes for 2018 so far.
20195 races 2018
mutuels
3258 races $4 payout or less
10003 between $4 and 10.01
4430 between $10 and $20.01
14433 between $4 and $20.01
1793 between $20-40.01
445 between $40.01-62
237 greater $62
>$20 mutuel is approximate 12%
48657 races year 2010
mutuels
6022 $4 payout or less
23840 between $4 and 10.01
35029 between $4 and $20.01
11630 between $10 to $20.01
4621 between $20-40.01
1132 between $40.01-62
783 greater $62
>$20 mutuel is approx 13%
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Again, looking at this info a little closer, you're missing 29 payoffs of the 20195 races in 2018, and 1070 payoffs in 2010. I was trying to put some percentages together, but your data is flawed. Add up lines 1,3,5,6,7 in 2010 and you don't have nearly enough payoffs for the number of races you're quoting.
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08-02-2018, 08:47 AM
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#164
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Code:
2018 thru 7/31
# of races = 22986
ODDS
<= 1 = 3942 17%
> 1 & <= 4 =11434 50%
>4 & <= 9 =4977 22%
>9 =2633 11%
-------
100%
Last edited by mikesal57; 08-02-2018 at 08:51 AM.
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08-02-2018, 09:02 AM
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#165
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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From what I see in my charts , that the money coming in after the final bell doesn't change the odds that much........the whales are in there but not to a point were someone says their odds go from 8-1 down to 3-1
but
were taking about big pools like Saratoga's $200,000 to 500,000+
If you play smaller tracks then the odds can change drastically
If anyone wants to do a smaller track, its not that hard...
Take a snapshot of board hitting 0 mins and then wait till the charts come out to get final odds..
Mike
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