Whales: A chink in the armor?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

A poll is not necessary.

There is a long record of industry handle/yearling prices vs. economic activity that suggests the economy impacts the handle and yearling prices independent of other factors.

So you can be correct that some people are dropping out or lowering their handle and we can be correct that the current rise in handle is partly related to the booming economy and higher employment. They are independent parts of the same story. The economy is working in a positive direction now offsetting some of the long term issues you are concerned with. What I am saying is that when this economy finally rolls over you'll have 2 forces working in negative direction and it's going to get really ugly again.

The real reason why handle is up is not because of a so called "booming economy", but by the U.S. Treasury Dept and the IRS adopting modernized regulations back in November of last year, regarding the withholding and reporting of pari-mutuel proceeds. This has allowed horseplayers to keep more of their winnings, thereby increasing the amount wagered on U.S. pari-mutuel racing by as much as 10 percent annually, or upwards of $1 billion, according to independent estimates.....

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

The real reason why handle is up is not because of a so called "booming economy", but by the U.S. Treasury Dept and the IRS adopting modernized regulations back in November of last year, regarding the withholding and reporting of pari-mutuel proceeds. This has allowed horseplayers to keep more of their winnings, thereby increasing the amount wagered on U.S. pari-mutuel racing by as much as 10 percent annually, or upwards of $1 billion, according to independent estimates.....

That's almost unquestionably another independent variable that's helping in the short term.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

The real reason why handle is up is not because of a so called "booming economy", but by the U.S. Treasury Dept and the IRS adopting modernized regulations back in November of last year, regarding the withholding and reporting of pari-mutuel proceeds. This has allowed horseplayers to keep more of their winnings, thereby increasing the amount wagered on U.S. pari-mutuel racing by as much as 10 percent annually, or upwards of $1 billion, according to independent estimates.....

I would say that the new "modernized" regulations immensely help the big player but has little current impact on the average player. The average player seldom had/has a winner requiring withholding. The impact of signers (without withholding) is felt when it comes time to file taxes so I doubt that any increase in play has come from bettors not having to sign for some winnings. The regulations might however, push some players back into pools that they had quit playing because of signer potential.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I would say that the new "modernized" regulations immensely help the big player but has little current impact on the average player. The average player seldom had/has a winner requiring withholding. The impact of signers (without withholding) is felt when it comes time to file taxes so I doubt that any increase in play has come from bettors not having to sign for some winnings. The regulations might however, push some players back into pools that they had quit playing because of signer potential.

Big players, I think I was told, account for 80% of all wagering.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Big players, I think I was told, account for 80% of all wagering.

Whatever the number is they would account for even more of the withholding transactions. Less withholding, more churn.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by Fuss

Just a common starting point and end point, with GPS, using latitude-longitude lines, in no time at all you'd have true odds as good as humanly possible.

No takers on the GPS? I thought about it when I met a few Shot Link guys at the Honda Classic a few months ago. I went to watch Tiger's 3rd round.


Shotlink is using 3D Mapping Software in coordination with the PGA, and providing new data, statistics and analytics to pro-golfers that is profound.

We see it on our TV’s as they track and trace golf shots for the broadcast. That technology is already consumer ready.

Advanced GPS or specifically DGPS. (differential GPS) has a horse racing angle.
The common misconception that speed measured via GPS is done so as a function of position against time. DGPS isn't measured like this, it uses Doppler, and as a result, generates 2D course over ground data, vertical velocity, and velocity rate of decline.

The data is measured in wave’s, allowing more precise energy rate of decline. Like measuring the pitch of a sound while its moving away. The data points are endless.


Additionally, GPS uses the atomic clock, race track clocks are not needed. Just common starting point and common end point . (lat/long) 6 F, 7F, 10F , don’t matter.

I used to be a big Phil Mickelson fan, I still am. However, watching Tiger pick himself up off the floor has won my respect and affection. I'm rooting for him.

[Kevroc]

I don't think the whales are working on "inside information".

It's factors like the one's used to conduct this study. I would guess that the selections are made and the plays are sent in piecemeal with the big dollop at the end so nobody can pick up on the plays early and take from the profit margin.

I would believe it's more computer-algorithm plays then a phone call from an insider or something..

I keep going back to the $1 for every $7 computation.

So 14.3% of every dollar is a whale dollar?

Okay, so Nitro for all his bluster could be kinda-sorta correct in that this isn't prevalent/important EVERYWHERE.. I'd tend to agree.

I would believe that a whale outfit would look to balance their book between every available shop (track) and bet accordingly.

The 14.3% at EMD is less than the 14.3% at SAR... But, the IMPACT is similar... and of course there's going to be some deviation from track to track, race level to race level, pool to pool.

[AltonKelsey]

Doubt if its 14.3% or 14.45612 % or anything resembling that.



Bet its near 25%, maybe even more





Might depend on the actual betting in the race and how much juice there is to extract.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Doubt if its 14.3% or 14.45612 % or anything resembling that.

Bet its near 25%, maybe even more

Might depend on the actual betting in the race and how much juice there is to extract.

My experience - which I've not measured in quite a while - is that the pct of pool varies wildly by track but is based upon two things:

1. Handle in a particular pool
2. Net takeout to the bettor

#2 is highly dependent upon the rebate available. My estimates of handle vary from 34% at MNR to 4%-6% at CD, SA, etc.

I have no current data to share and no conclusive proof. (Hence the word, "estimate.")

These numbers are why I believe that LOW REBATE tracks are actually best for most players. They simply are playing against less smart money.

[HuggingTheRail]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

My experience - which I've not measured in quite a while - is that the pct of pool varies wildly by track but is based upon two things:

1. Handle in a particular pool
2. Net takeout to the bettor

#2 is highly dependent upon the rebate available. My estimates of handle vary from 34% at MNR to 4%-6% at CD, SA, etc.

I have no current data to share and no conclusive proof. (Hence the word, "estimate.")

These numbers are why I believe that LOW REBATE tracks are actually best for most players. They simply are playing against less smart money.

Thanks for sharing info in this thread Dave - I find the "math" of the whales very interesting...

[AltonKelsey]

I would be shocked if the handle at a major from the boys got as low as 5%. Is that what you're saying?


I doubt it would get that low even with NO REBATE.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

I would be shocked if the handle at a major from the boys got as low as 5%. Is that what you're saying?


I doubt it would get that low even with NO REBATE.

Yes.

Imagine that there is a track with an 11% rebate in the win pool. Now, that take is higher than most to begin with.

Now, there is another track with a 1% rebate to a huge customer.

The 11% rebate track may have a net of (say) an 8% takeout, while the other track has a 13% takeout.

That extra 5% net takeout reduction makes a huge difference in the number of playable horses, races, pools, etc.

This is a generalization (i.e. applicable across all tracks combined), but the whale model is LOSE 2-3% and make it up on rebate. (There is a saying: "If you're showing a flat bet profit, then you aren't betting enough money.")

In other words, the bigger the rebate, the greater the difference between the playable pools.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

All I know is that nobody is better than me. And if I don't believe that, then I should quit this game tomorrow.



(Save your "You really should quit" comments.)

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

All I know is that nobody is better than me. And if I don't believe that, then I should quit this game tomorrow.



(Save your "You really should quit" comments.)

Better than you in what regard?.....Live vertical play, win pool, horizontal bets, overall ROI, tourneys....What?

[mikesal57]

Ok All...

This post can go on forever.....

I like to ask if anyone can PROVE what the whales/late money is doing to the pools and winners....

If anyone is capable ......


A) Provide win pool on all horses with 0 mins....and then final odds
on say 5 low odds winners..

B) Same as above on horses paying double digits....


Can we determine if late money is right on or is the late money coming in is proportionate to what each horse has in the pool already???

Thxs for anyone taking this project on

Mike