Whales: A chink in the armor?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by vegasone

When there were rebates in Vegas, there were a bunch of people betting 40k a day or more...not all of them were winners but the rebate made the pain less.
Sooooo...take your pick as to what you want to call big bettors.....I would stick with whales as a general term......they don't necessarily win.

$40k a day by today's standards - at least by mine - would never be considered a "whale."

Think more like $400,000 per day, and double that in summer.

Nobody bets that kind of money and loses.

[mikesal57]

heres info on the age of the horse for the periods I showed last


....so the younger horses bettered in 2018....maybe better sire stats ?

What I think I'm showing is that we have been dealing with "Whales" for X number of years and nothing much has changed

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

heres info on the age of the horse for the periods I showed last


....so the younger horses bettered in 2018....maybe better sire stats ?

What I think I'm showing is that we have been dealing with "Whales" for X number of years and nothing much has changed

Mike,

Metrics like this are what the horseplayer who is committed to improvement needs.

Not sure I exactly understand the graphic, but the fact that anyone takes the time to look at metrics searching for handicapping truth puts them much closer to it.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Mike,

Metrics like this are what the horseplayer who is committed to improvement needs.

Not sure I exactly understand the graphic, but the fact that anyone takes the time to look at metrics searching for handicapping truth puts them much closer to it.

Your right Dave, there is a world of info out there that people can obtain...

The thing is to interpret it into useful information and apply it...

That why I call on the old timers for help...

mike

[vegasone]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

I wanna throw something at you....

These are stats of horses PAYING $10 for period 6-1-17 to 7-25-17 and same for 2018

and


6-1-17 to 7-25-17

     SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
           WHERE [DATE] >= #06-01-2017# 
           AND [DATE] <= #7-25-2017# 
           AND ODDS >= 4


     Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
     -----------------------------------------------------
     Mutuel Totals    60074.90      60061.90      60142.60
     Bet             -84256.00     -84256.00     -84256.00
     -----------------------------------------------------
     P/L             -24181.10     -24194.10     -24113.40

     Wins                 2796          6902         11847
     Plays               42128         42128         42128
     PCT                 .0664         .1638         .2812

     ROI                0.7130        0.7129        0.7138
     Avg Mut             21.49          8.70          5.08

6-1-18 to 7-25-18

SQL:  SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
           WHERE [DATE] >= #06-01-2018# 
           AND [DATE] <= #7-25-2018# 
           AND ODDS >= 4


     Data Summary          Win         Place          Show
     -----------------------------------------------------
     Mutuel Totals    56457.20      57225.90      56210.50
     Bet             -80356.00     -80356.00     -80356.00
     -----------------------------------------------------
     P/L             -23898.80     -23130.10     -24145.50

     Wins                 2688          6697         11391
     Plays               40178         40178         40178
     PCT                 .0669         .1667         .2835

     ROI                0.7026        0.7122        0.6995
     Avg Mut             21.00          8.55          4.93

there were maybe 100 less $10+ winners between the 2 periods...

Whats your take?

Mike

Your stats pretty much tell you the facts.......not sure what your question would be....


.0664

.0669


That is what those numbers are for. If you need to ask....less plays less winners.

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by vegasone

Your stats pretty much tell you the facts.......not sure what your question would be....


.0664

.0669


That is what those numbers are for. If you need to ask....less plays less winners.

The thing is Vegas , is that people are noticing more and more of their odds changing for the worse and that the whales are the cause of it...

I'm saying that it was here way before people noticing...
and if we make more and more noise about it people might take it as the game is fixed and the recreational money (that we rely on) will disappear.

Mike

[vegasone]

The thing is Vegas , is that people are noticing more and more of their odds changing for the worse and that the whales are the cause of it...

I'm saying that it was here way before people noticing...
and if we make more and more noise about it people might take it as the game is fixed and the recreational money (that we rely on) will disappear.

Mike





That doesn't seem to related to your question (did you understand that the reason you had less winners was because there were less plays?..winning odds were a little less tho) , but I for one am not complaining about the so called whales....not much I can do about it....I also complained about everybody (else) using computers....


Not much I can do about that either...you adjust or take up poker...or retire.


About those odds...the lower ones are for sure being lowered even more by those whales.....the higher end ones as I said previously I believe are more about more knowledgeable players.....PA maybe wouldn't have ever thought about playing a $150 horse a while ago without having that computer helping him.... It is what it is...more info, better players.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yes. The "fact" that no whales were betting that day...whatever man...totally clueless statement -->
Add to that the fact you march right in here and crap all over Dave's posts as if you think you know what you're talking about.

But that's what you do best, isn't it?

So in other words you believe the flawed statistics being presented not because common says otherwise, but because of who posted them?

Let me just add one more gem to perhaps make my previous rebuttal a little clearer. Has ANY of information used to support these so-called statistics even identified a single race here or abroad that could be considered a race where a whale was involved in the betting? No, instead groups of races from god knows where are brought together to provide a picture of the odds being lowered over a period of time because someone believes that its being caused large bets being made by “whales”.

All I can say is Paranoia will Destroy Ya!

[PaceAdvantage]

Please explain to Dave in detail how his statistics are flawed.

And while we are talking statistics, what is your ROI on posted picks here on PaceAdvantage?

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Please explain to Dave in detail how his statistics are flawed.

And while we are talking statistics, what is your ROI on posted picks here on PaceAdvantage?

I thought I explained my reasoning for the rebuttal in post #47
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=146256&page=4

It’s been a while since I posted any information about my profits using a 3-entry Dutch betting scheme in Hong Kong.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...light=Dutching
While my current profit margin is still about the same, the hit frequency has improved quite a bit.

[vegasone]

I hate to get into the middle of this.....


Statistics. unless they are fudged are just numbers. Interpreting them is where there could be differences of opinion. I am sure you all know the old saying......




If Dave thinks what he thinks he has a good reason to..

We are supposedly allowed to disagree , but no name calling. I for one disagree with Dave and I can do so without posting any picks since that doesn't prove or disprove his premise.



I did post my numbers which agree with him on the low end(which we all think it is likely whales or huge bettors). It is on the high end which we can disagree as to the causes......I can't think of any way to "prove" it is whales. Blaming it on them instead of better players I think would be hard to do.



Dave is causing part of the problem, because he provides players with software that helps them make better decisions.



I think we are the cause of our own problems as far as lower prices. The player is just better educated now. Hard to pass by a decent price horse when it show up on your printout/computer screen. If you have been to any large contest and hear 20 people using HTR software yelling for that long shot coming to the wire you know what I mean.

Last minute betting, whatever is a different issue that for the moment we have no control over either. A hundred years ago(feels like it anyway) smart money was betting at the last minute but had to do it at the windows (or terminals in some places) so the effect was not very noticeable.


Just another opinion......

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by Nitro

I thought I explained my reasoning for the rebuttal in post #47
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...=146256&page=4

It’s been a while since I posted any information about my profits using a 3-entry Dutch betting scheme in Hong Kong.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...light=Dutching
While my current profit margin is still about the same, the hit frequency has improved quite a bit.

You didn't explain yourself well at all actually.

How are his STATISTICS FLAWED? Not his conclusion, which is open to much subjectivity.

You specifically stated his STATISTICS were FLAWED.

And I didn't ask what your hidden return numbers were. I asked what your ROI was on posted picks here. Should be simple. Unless you don't keep track.

I'll make it easy...over the last month since you've been back posting picks here, how have they done? What's the ROI?

[AltonKelsey]

"And unless you have actual realtime access to odds fluctuations (and the computing power to calculate, and actually take advantage of, such an edge in such a short window of time),"


Trivial computing power needed, next to nothing.


Still haven't seen any evidence that the whales have access to tote information materially in advance of the public , though it is certainly possible.



If so, this is an unfair advantage.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

You didn't explain yourself well at all actually.

How are his STATISTICS FLAWED? Not his conclusion, which is open to much subjectivity.

You specifically stated his STATISTICS were FLAWED.

And I didn't ask what your hidden return numbers were. I asked what your ROI was on posted picks here. Should be simple. Unless you don't keep track.

I'll make it easy...over the last month since you've been back posting picks here, how have they done? What's the ROI?

Doesn't matter. As I've posted repeatedly , too many of the winners are ADDED in after fact. This, even though he claims his plays are set in stone as long as 10 minutes to post.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

"And unless you have actual realtime access to odds fluctuations (and the computing power to calculate, and actually take advantage of, such an edge in such a short window of time),"


Trivial computing power needed, next to nothing.


Still haven't seen any evidence that the whales have access to tote information materially in advance of the public , though it is certainly possible.



If so, this is an unfair advantage.

This does not exist in parimutuel wagering.

What makes you think it is available?
[edit] Ah, you don't Misunderstood. Sorry.

I once had access to the best tote available anywhere. It was "pushed" as the tote changed. But it was still 30 seconds between updates.