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05-17-2019, 10:23 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
In 1991, Safely Kept won the Maryland Million Distaff at Pimlico for the 3rd consecutive year despite missing the break, grabbing a quarter, and toting 130 lbs.
It was her 23rd win and her 30th career start.
In May of Safely Kept's 3yo year, she was already busy beating older horses in graded stakes.
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She never ran this fast, Spalding.
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05-17-2019, 10:59 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,053
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
She never ran this fast, Spalding.
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I guess we'll see what sort of speed figures are generated. All the other graded stakes on the dirt (all routes) on the card shaded their respective track records.
Safely Kept earned a 116 BSF winning the 1990 BC Sprint, and Dancing Spree earned a 115 winning the 1989 edition with Safely Kept a neck back in second.
Covfefe's previous winning BSFs were 86 and 80.
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05-17-2019, 11:54 PM
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#18
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Journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 98
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Combining several tweets from Craig Milkowski
Happy to report the Covfefe track record is 100% legit. Backing up from the finish line by the final time shows this is the start of timing. That is spot on for Pimlico.
The scary thing is that Chalon, who consistently runs in the 115-120 range on TimeformUS Speed Figures, was 1.76 seconds slower than Covfefe. Unless the track really changed between these two races we're talking a 130+, maybe 130+++ type figure for a 3yo filly.
I looked back as far as 2009 and couldn't find a faster opening quarter at Pimlico for a 6f race than 22.45 before Covfefe ran 22.24.
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Was hoping for better odds on her, but I was waiting on this race for a few days. Wasn't expecting that performance, however. Still stunned at how easy she did it.
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05-18-2019, 12:24 AM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spalding No!
I guess we'll see what sort of speed figures are generated. All the other graded stakes on the dirt (all routes) on the card shaded their respective track records.
Safely Kept earned a 116 BSF winning the 1990 BC Sprint, and Dancing Spree earned a 115 winning the 1989 edition with Safely Kept a neck back in second.
Covfefe's previous winning BSFs were 86 and 80.
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I do know the track was very fast today. But Pimlico has had many other fast tracks and nobody ever broke 1:09. It had a famously highly adjusted time chart for 6f races due to the short runup. (This filly's pace figure has got to be one of the fastsest ever.) So even if the variant is minus 15 or something the number is still going to be astronomical.
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05-18-2019, 12:32 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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The time is the time but even the runner up by 8 lengths broke the track record so that always makes me a bit suspicious about the record. The timing was real but just hard to accept.
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05-18-2019, 12:38 AM
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#21
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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05-18-2019, 12:53 AM
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#22
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Journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
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I suspect he is probably right, but Chalon's number looks a bit low based on his previous tweet. Guessing if Covfefe didn't do what she did that number might be a bit higher.
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05-18-2019, 12:55 AM
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#23
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DGroundhog
I suspect he is probably right, but Chalon's number looks a bit low based on his previous tweet. Guessing if Covfefe didn't do what she did that number might be a bit higher.
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No, not really. See the tweet below the initial one. If I rated those races in the same group, Chalon would be even lower and Covfefe higher.
The track got very fast starting with the Covfefe race. It wasn't just her race but the other dirt races after hers too, save the Special which was kind of slow but also run at a new distance with a short run up.
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05-18-2019, 01:16 AM
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#24
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Journeyman
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 98
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
No, not really. See the tweet below the initial one. If I rated those races in the same group, Chalon would be even lower and Covfefe higher.
The track got very fast starting with the Covfefe race. It wasn't just her race but the other dirt races after hers too, save the Special which was kind of slow but also run at a new distance with a short run up.
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If Covfefe ran a clunker of a race and the 2nd place horse was the winner (still a track record) would that have affected Chalon's number at all?
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05-18-2019, 01:39 AM
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#25
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DGroundhog
If Covfefe ran a clunker of a race and the 2nd place horse was the winner (still a track record) would that have affected Chalon's number at all?
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No, it was pretty clear cut that all the horses from the Covfefe would have gotten big lifetime tops if I didn't separate the races.
I'm going to write an article about this next week and post. It was as clear cut a split as I ever see.
I think Chalon did what she had to do to win in her first start off a long layoff, over six months. She beat a 66-1 and a 33-1 in second and third.
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05-18-2019, 02:17 AM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Personally when I saw the name, I assumed it was a typo.  |
If she has a foal they can name it Typo.
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05-18-2019, 02:24 AM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
The time is the time but even the runner up by 8 lengths broke the track record so that always makes me a bit suspicious about the record. The timing was real but just hard to accept.
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When Secretariat ran the KY Derby in 1:59.2/5. Sham was a couple lengths back. Then Sec ran 1:54.2 in the Preakness, but DRF said it was 1:53.2/5 and Sham was again 2 lengths back.
Not sure if there is any significance in my post, but I am posting it because it is not unprecedented for two horses to set the track record in the same race.
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05-18-2019, 02:35 AM
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#28
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
When Secretariat ran the KY Derby in 1:59.2/5. Sham was a couple lengths back. Then Sec ran 1:54.2 in the Preakness, but DRF said it was 1:53.2/5 and Sham was again 2 lengths back.
Not sure if there is any significance in my post, but I am posting it because it is not unprecedented for two horses to set the track record in the same race.
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Probably not when eight lengths apart at the finish and especially at six furlongs. I'd bet a large sum that hasn't happened before at a track with any reasonable number of races run.
Last edited by cj; 05-18-2019 at 02:36 AM.
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05-18-2019, 02:37 AM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 10,861
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Probably not when eight lengths apart at the finish and especially at six furlongs. I'd bet a large sum that hasn't happened before at a track with any reasonable number of races run.
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It will be interesting to see what the figure is next time she runs.
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05-18-2019, 08:24 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by highnote
It will be interesting to see what the figure is next time she runs.
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I know that if I controlled this horse's destiny, she would not race again until the Test stakes at Saratoga this summer.
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