The Bad Beat thread.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I thought the "Big" turf races on Derby and Belmont day totally decimated any potential in horizontal exotics.It's a bad beat when 1 solid entrant shows up for each event.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I thought the "Big" turf races on Derby and Belmont day totally decimated any potential in horizontal exotics.It's a bad beat when 1 solid entrant shows up for each event.

Point of Entry's 'entry' was the reason i didnt play pick 4s. I didnt want to bet on him and i didnt want to bet against him, he ruined that sequence for me.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Point of Entry's 'entry' was the reason i didnt play pick 4s. I didnt want to bet on him and i didnt want to bet against him, he ruined that sequence for me.

Me too,and Wise Dan on Derby day,why I didn't play the pick 4.It was tough sledding on Belmont Day IMO.I thought they were all underlays in the feature.My big chest beater of the day was Moreno.Had an across the paceline domination over rivals,blistering works,and one hellacious mud pedigree on both sides.Had another 3 of my near record breaking 2nds by less than a head each.I'm on one of those streaks where I'm 2-7-3 over my last 25 bets.All those 2nds were by less than half a length.I'm still cashing and making money but that gets frustrating.Had an 11-1 hanger in Churchill's last yesterday and it looked like he was going to blow by.My heart was pounding with glee!Aaarghh.

[Valuist]

How's this one: cross sports to baseball. White Sox at Seattle on June 5.

The total on the game was 7. At the end of 9 innings, there was no score. Imagine you bet the under; you are just counting your money at this point. So what happens? Nothing. Until the 14th inning, when the White Sox push across FIVE runs. OK, the under player still has a 2 run cushion from a push; a 3 run cushion from a loss. But the White Sox had just lost their last 8 games. Wins for teams in the middle of big losing streaks don't come easy. The Mariners ended up getting 5 runs in the bottom of the 14th, before the White Sox put 2 more across in the 16th for the final tallies. Any over player who cashed on that game better realize how fortunate they were.

[NJ Stinks]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

I thought the "Big" turf races on Derby and Belmont day totally decimated any potential in horizontal exotics.It's a bad beat when 1 solid entrant shows up for each event.

The Manhattan was horrible. People can (and will) say how great Port of Entry and Wise Dan are. I say if they really were world beaters, their connections would have them in England right now getting ready for Royal Ascot. Instead we get to watch Grade I walkovers against some Grade III competition on our biggest days.

Lucky us.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Valuist

How's this one: cross sports to baseball. White Sox at Seattle on June 5.

The total on the game was 7. At the end of 9 innings, there was no score. Imagine you bet the under; you are just counting your money at this point. So what happens? Nothing. Until the 14th inning, when the White Sox push across FIVE runs. OK, the under player still has a 2 run cushion from a push; a 3 run cushion from a loss. But the White Sox had just lost their last 8 games. Wins for teams in the middle of big losing streaks don't come easy. The Mariners ended up getting 5 runs in the bottom of the 14th, before the White Sox put 2 more across in the 16th for the final tallies. Any over player who cashed on that game better realize how fortunate they were.

That's a ridiculously bad beat for anyone who had the loss on that one. Yikes.

[wiffleball whizz]

Originally Posted by Valuist

How's this one: cross sports to baseball. White Sox at Seattle on June 5.

The total on the game was 7. At the end of 9 innings, there was no score. Imagine you bet the under; you are just counting your money at this point. So what happens? Nothing. Until the 14th inning, when the White Sox push across FIVE runs. OK, the under player still has a 2 run cushion from a push; a 3 run cushion from a loss. But the White Sox had just lost their last 8 games. Wins for teams in the middle of big losing streaks don't come easy. The Mariners ended up getting 5 runs in the bottom of the 14th, before the White Sox put 2 more across in the 16th for the final tallies. Any over player who cashed on that game better realize how fortunate they were.

Is that as bad as in 2000 I'm a freshmen in college(for a whole 9 weeks) I'm up 850 hit about 9/12 preseason football games on 30 timers (150) a game dumb book don't know I'm 19 and broke but taking big shots it's the Sunday night baseball game mid August about 110 degree night my limit was 150 a game I call book ask if I can bet 500 or a 100x he says no prob....

I say what's the line on the baseball game Arizona with the unit on the road against sf the total is 7.5.......I bet 500 on the over.....book says no prob

Top 1 7-0 unit out of game with blister.....

Bottom 1 bases loaded no outs.....we walk to the bar (outside bar at stuff yer face in new Brunswick) if anybody knows that I'm walking on air gonna get book for 1350 we leave house bases loaded no outs walk to the bar there's a Seattle San Fran preseason game on we're making dumb $1 bets on what plays they gonna call:....life is good up 1350 were bar hopping kicking it to girls I'm with some girl fooling around doing shots everything is good....

We go home I'm totally obliterated can't even see spend about about 200 on drinks when they dirt cheap no clue where the money went....

I remember going to white rose in highland park about 10am next day I'm feeling as bad as ever in life there is a sports section sitting on counter I go to check lines for next day I see in bold letters on next page UNIT gets roughed up in loss at giants.....then I see the final 7-0.......I walked out the door and threw food in garbage::..man was I sick....

How did they get outta that bottom of first without giving up a run bases loaded?!?!?? Oh my god!!!

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by wiffleball whizz

Is that as bad as in 2000 I'm a freshmen in college(for a whole 9 weeks) I'm up 850 hit about 9/12 preseason football games on 30 timers (150) a game dumb book don't know I'm 19 and broke but taking big shots it's the Sunday night baseball game mid August about 110 degree night my limit was 150 a game I call book ask if I can bet 500 or a 100x he says no prob....

I say what's the line on the baseball game Arizona with the unit on the road against sf the total is 7.5.......I bet 500 on the over.....book says no prob

Top 1 7-0 unit out of game with blister.....

Bottom 1 bases loaded no outs.....we walk to the bar (outside bar at stuff yer face in new Brunswick) if anybody knows that I'm walking on air gonna get book for 1350 we leave house bases loaded no outs walk to the bar there's a Seattle San Fran preseason game on we're making dumb $1 bets on what plays they gonna call:....life is good up 1350 were bar hopping kicking it to girls I'm with some girl fooling around doing shots everything is good....

We go home I'm totally obliterated can't even see spend about about 200 on drinks when they dirt cheap no clue where the money went....

I remember going to white rose in highland park about 10am next day I'm feeling as bad as ever in life there is a sports section sitting on counter I go to check lines for next day I see in bold letters on next page UNIT gets roughed up in loss at giants.....then I see the final 7-0.......I walked out the door and threw food in garbage::..man was I sick....

How did they get outta that bottom of first without giving up a run bases loaded?!?!?? Oh my god!!!

That was a tough loss. I have to admit, 7.5 was a pretty low total back in 2000. That was at the height of steroid madness. I saw later in your thread that Randy Johnson was pitching; I figured it had to either be him, Pedro or Clements with a decent starter on the other side. During steroid madness, we saw some real high totals.

[wiffleball whizz]

Originally Posted by Valuist

That was a tough loss. I have to admit, 7.5 was a pretty low total back in 2000. That was at the height of steroid madness. I saw later in your thread that Randy Johnson was pitching; I figured it had to either be him, Pedro or Clements with a decent starter on the other side. During steroid madness, we saw some real high totals.

Yes great point......totals were high back in the day....what were some of the highest totals you ever seen? Ive seen 14 at coors and some 13s with wind blowing out at wrigley.....

Baseball mike Salem who was best friends with stu unger said there was a 16 total at wrigley once....man would I be hard pressed to bet a over there but prob would cus it looked so obvious to bet under....

And like u said about Clemens Martinez and Johnston very very rare they were dogs when they were pitching.....usually only when at the yanks they were!!!

Always got burnt betting these guys....anytime I tried to get the "ice cream" Money always Buried laying 320 for 100 and losing 2-0

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by wiffleball whizz

Yes great point......totals were high back in the day....what were some of the highest totals you ever seen? Ive seen 14 at coors and some 13s with wind blowing out at wrigley.....

Baseball mike Salem who was best friends with stu unger said there was a 16 total at wrigley once....man would I be hard pressed to bet a over there but prob would cus it looked so obvious to bet under....

And like u said about Clemens Martinez and Johnston very very rare they were dogs when they were pitching.....usually only when at the yanks they were!!!

Always got burnt betting these guys....anytime I tried to get the "ice cream" Money always Buried laying 320 for 100 and losing 2-0

I did a study years ago and up until the past few non-steroid years, OVERS at Wrigley with totals of 12 or higher were very solid bets (around 60%). The public would see the big number and bet under and get buried. Coors was insane in the pre-humidor days. But it wasn't just home runs; it was batting averages as well. The typical Rocky would have this BA split: home batting average: .330 road BA: .255. The real problem was breaking pitches just wouldn't break. They paid a ton of money to guys like Mike Hampton and (the late) Darryl Kyle who weren't hard throwers and they got burned.

[wiffleball whizz]

Over 12 at wrigley always a solid play.....it would be 1-0 through 3 then all the sudden it would turn into a 8-6 game....does the wind make that much of a difference there?

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by wiffleball whizz

Over 12 at wrigley always a solid play.....it would be 1-0 through 3 then all the sudden it would turn into a 8-6 game....does the wind make that much of a difference there?

Yes. More than any park. Totals at Wrigley don't get posted until around 10:30 of game day. While it becomes a hitters paradise when the wind is from the south or southwest, it becomes a pitchers park when the wind is from the north or northeast.

I think this is one of the reasons they've struggled for so long. The park plays to power from June-mid September but its a pitchers park where you need to manufacture runs in April and May. Tough to build a team for a park that changes that much. Imagine Petco Park for the first 2 months, and the pre-humidor Coors after June 1.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Point of Entry's 'entry' was the reason i didnt play pick 4s. I didnt want to bet on him and i didnt want to bet against him, he ruined that sequence for me.

I singled POE in my pick three. Palace Malice wrecked it. I had the winner in the 12th.
And of course, in the Belmont I had the 2nd, 3rd and 4th placed horses.
UGH....
Note to self....Next time you look at the scratches and changes, READ them. Don't skim....Dummy.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by thespaah

I singled POE in my pick three. Palace Malice wrecked it. I had the winner in the 12th.
And of course, in the Belmont I had the 2nd, 3rd and 4th placed horses.
UGH....
Note to self....Next time you look at the scratches and changes, READ them. Don't skim....Dummy.

The Pick 4 paid an amazing price with what was essentially a 'free square'. This happened to me a couple months ago at Aqueduct, there was a horse in the 3rd leg of the late pick 4 that was 3-5 ML and ended up winning, and the pick 4 paid like 20 grand, a 70-1 horse won the last race that i actually liked and had win money on, i would have hit this pick 4 had i played, just when i see a 3-5 standout, i just skip it unless i think the 3-5 absolutely can't lose or i hate the horse.....if its anything in between, i usually skip.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

The Pick 4 paid an amazing price with what was essentially a 'free square'. This happened to me a couple months ago at Aqueduct, there was a horse in the 3rd leg of the late pick 4 that was 3-5 ML and ended up winning, and the pick 4 paid like 20 grand, a 70-1 horse won the last race that i actually liked and had win money on, i would have hit this pick 4 had i played, just when i see a 3-5 standout, i just skip it unless i think the 3-5 absolutely can't lose or i hate the horse.....if its anything in between, i usually skip.

I saw the entries last Weds and when I saw POE was in the Manhattan, I looked over the rest of the field and decided right there I would single him in a pick 3 or two. It was like a 4X4 daily double after that.
POE in that field was just one of those that jumped off the page. I thought unless he gets hit by a bus or breaks sideways or dumps the jock, he's not losing.