2018-19 NBA

[thaskalos]

I will be betting on Toronto to cover the small number at home. The Bucks have looked helpless in their prior two games in Toronto...and the pressure of the elimination game figures to be too much for the young Bucks team to overcome...IMO.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Valuist

A lot of 3 point variance in that Toronto win at Milwaukee. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucks take one on the road in Toronto. No way Van Vleet comes near what he did the other night.

I think you're right about Van Vleet likely reverting to the mean, but I also think the 180 reversal we've seen in this series is mainly attributable to Kawhi's increased coverage on Giannis in Games 3,4,5 from this first two. In the first two games, when he was the main defender on Gainnis an average of only 12.5 possessions per game the Bucks averaged 114 pts. per 100 possessions; in the last three games, with Kawhi on Giannis an average of 40 possessions a game, they averaged 85 pts. per 100 possessions -- a huge drop. This isn't Giannis' fault, it's a function of the team's limitations; against most teams, when Giannis is doubled, he can kick out to the open man for the three; but, since Kahwi has no problem checking Giannis straight up, there is usually no open man, and when there is, the Raps are such a good defensive team that the rotations are instantaneous. BTW, worth noting that another reason that the Bucks did so well in the first two games is that the Raps were barely rotating at all, leaving three shooters wide open. Most championships teams usually have at least two guys who need to be doubled -- Curry/Durant, Bird/McHale, Jordan/Pippen, LBJ/Wade, etc.. On the Bucks, it's only Giannis. You might say the same of the Raps, re Kawhi, but they also have more guys who can put the ball on the floor to get an open shot than the Bucks.

Think the Raps also have a psychological edge, aside from HC -- Gasol and Lowry are vet All Star players who have never been to the Finals. This is the most important game of their lives. I expect them to play that way. And Ibaka and Danny Green have been there once but this is likely their last shot to get there again in their careers. I think they too will bring it tonight.

More support for Raps from Nate Silver's model, which is now throwing out the Bucks and going out on a limb in slightly favoring them over GSW to win the title!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

[Valuist]

Game 1 I'm taking Toronto first half minus a half point. I'm thinking GS could have some rust, but they are so good, they may overcome it in 2nd half. Still, Toronto's best chance to win of any game is in game 1.

[lansdale]

Generally agree with V.'s take on Game 1 -- think this is the Raps game to lose, so I'd give the point -- if they can't beat the Durant-less GSW off a long layoff at home, they're in serious trouble in this series.

BTW, if anyone looked at the link to Nate's site above and wondered about those numbers, he's favoring Raptors only on the basis that Durant doesn't play. If KD returns, reasonably healthy, Nate is making GSW the 3/5 favorite. But given question marks surrounding KD at this point, tough to call the Finals otherwise than game-by-game.

[Valuist]

I know Durant traveled to Toronto, but from everything I heard, it's highly unlikely he plays in game 2.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I know Durant traveled to Toronto, but from everything I heard, it's highly unlikely he plays in game 2.

Yes, that's what it sounds like. I'm getting the feeling that he'll at least be back by Game 5, though his condition will still be a mystery. Hearing some insiders say they don't think he'll play at all in this series -- J. Van Gundy among them -- which would surprise me. Cousins activated for tonight, but unlikely he'll be a factor.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by lansdale

Yes, that's what it sounds like. I'm getting the feeling that he'll at least be back by Game 5, though his condition will still be a mystery. Hearing some insiders say they don't think he'll play at all in this series -- J. Van Gundy among them -- which would surprise me. Cousins activated for tonight, but unlikely he'll be a factor.

The thing with Durant is, even if he plays, how many minutes can he go? That is an injury that won't allow him to do much cardio conditioning.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Valuist

The thing with Durant is, even if he plays, how many minutes can he go? That is an injury that won't allow him to do much cardio conditioning.

Agree with your basic point that Durant won't be in 100% condition upon return, although there are cardio options like the upper body ergometer (hand bike) and working out with a heavy bag while the injured limb is stabilized. They say that KD has already had one practice w/the team and it looks like he will almost certainly be returning for Game 4 and possibly even Game 3, so we'll see we'll know by then. If he can contribute, clearly the strategy will be try to have him ready for the crucial Game 5, where GSW will need to go all out (assuming they've split the first four games - as I tentatively am) to shoot for a back door sweep. But still a long way to go.

[lansdale]

Raptors all but threw away a shot at their first championship with a loss to a beaten up version of GSW at home in Game 2. Many stupid mistakes (of the kind the GSW rarely makes) by Lowry and Siakem, a 3-pt. brick-shooting clinic, and a ratcheting up of D on the part of the Warriors, exposed a team not yet ready for prime time. Raps should take Game 5, unless Durant returns, but will be amazed if they can win a game at Oracle.

[lansdale]

Some interest returning to this series, due to injuries to Looney and Klay, with Nate now effectively putting the series price at -110, while the Vegas line is -280, and the line for Game 3 has moved from -7 GSW to -4.5. If Klay is 70% of his usual self tonight, the Vegas series number looks right, if he's subpar, though, Nate could be right.

[Valuist]

I say Durant has played his last game for Golden State. Highly unlikely he returns at any point in this series.

[Greyfox]

Will the real Golden State Warriors show up?
Toronto has been very good!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Will the real Golden State Warriors show up?
Toronto has been very good!

GSW had their 4 or 5 year run.



NBA 'dynasties' never last much longer unless you want to bring up the 50s and 60s when free agency and players getting paid wasn't around.

[lansdale]

Originally Posted by Valuist

I say Durant has played his last game for Golden State. Highly unlikely he returns at any point in this series.

After today's announcement, sure looks that way --- for once Charles Barkley was right about something. Will be happy to see Kawhi and Raps win it, but sorry to see the value of the Finals destroyed by injuries once again. After the blowouts of the past two years, I was hoping for a competitive series. Many, rightly making comparisons with the decimated Cavs in 2016 Finals. Raps fans are already complaining about those calling this an *asterisk* championship, presuming they win, but will be difficult to see it as anything else.

[parlay]

Everything is an "asterisk win". Woulda coulda shoulda!
Interesting how these things work.
War of Will should be racing for the triple crown tomorrow.
Will he get an asterisk?