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06-07-2020, 04:18 PM
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#241
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Are you considering 3-4 months off a long layoff?
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I consider anything over 90 days a long layoff.
3 didn't break well and lost all change, a better break and I think that horse is ITM
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06-07-2020, 04:20 PM
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#242
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: PA
Posts: 443
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
I consider anything over 90 days a long layoff.
3 didn't break well and lost all change, a better break and I think that horse is ITM
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Agree, at least wouldn't have gotten in the trouble it did with a better break. On to the next!
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06-07-2020, 04:20 PM
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#243
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bbixler18
seemed like lots of trouble for this horse on the turn
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Yea, didn't break I figured her on the lead, once she broke like 5th or 6th I knew this wasn't happening. Oh well at 14-1 it was worth the risk.
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06-07-2020, 04:23 PM
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#244
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Important lesson here is, no matter what, I made a good bet there. There is really no second guessing myself, the horse didn't break, that's racing, that's why we demand our price before we bet, reward needs to be greater than the risk.
That was an excellent bet on that horse, and I would do it again 100x out of 100 races given the same scenario
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06-07-2020, 04:25 PM
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#245
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
Yea, didn't break I figured her on the lead, once she broke like 5th or 6th I knew this wasn't happening. Oh well at 14-1 it was worth the risk.
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Totally Agree!!!
Besides bad break....Jock had horse in a strangle hold...
I honestly believe that holding back a speed horse is a case for better luck next time....
Horses have their way of running...unless a horse shows he can pass horses...holding back a speed horse is the end for him...
watch the race and see the jockey hold him back from going to the front...
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06-07-2020, 04:30 PM
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#246
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Totally Agree!!!
Besides bad break....Jock had horse in a strangle hold...
I honestly believe that holding back a speed horse is a case for better luck next time....
Horses have their way of running...unless a horse shows he can pass horses...holding back a speed horse is the end for him...
watch the race and see the jockey hold him back from going to the front...
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Yea you are right, could've been orders from the trainer, could've been a bad decision, could've been they weren't even trying this race, I think that horse had her only lifetime win in a dirt sprint immediately following her only turf sprint, could be they are trying for the same thing here.....one to watch next start maybe, if its a dirt sprint?? Anyway, these things happen, on to the next.
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06-07-2020, 04:30 PM
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#247
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: PA
Posts: 443
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
Important lesson here is, no matter what, I made a good bet there. There is really no second guessing myself, the horse didn't break, that's racing, that's why we demand our price before we bet, reward needs to be greater than the risk.
That was an excellent bet on that horse, and I would do it again 100x out of 100 races given the same scenario
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No doubt, it's why I appreciate you sharing and when I tag along I feel like I always made a great value bet. 
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06-07-2020, 07:17 PM
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#248
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: PA
Posts: 443
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
GG7 1 1/16 turf Golden Poppy Stk
Tied for first on the line at 4-1 is  Sloan Garden (GB) who is 8-1 on the ML. Horse is 7-8 lifetime ITM and seems well placed in her US stakes debut.
PICK: Sloan Garden (GB) at 7-1 or better
That's all for today folks and as always good luck to everyone.
M |
wins but off at 7/2
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06-07-2020, 07:22 PM
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#249
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bbixler18
wins but off at 7/2 |
Yep no bet, still a profitable day
060720res.JPG
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06-07-2020, 07:35 PM
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#250
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,569
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
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Do you flat-bet the same amount on your qualified selections...or do you vary the betting amount in accordance with the "value" of the individual wager?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
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06-07-2020, 07:39 PM
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#251
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Do you flat-bet the same amount on your qualified selections...or do you vary the betting amount in accordance with the "value" of the individual wager?
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I flat bet, I am not smart enough to vary the amount, LOL
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06-07-2020, 07:41 PM
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#252
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: PA
Posts: 443
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
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06-12-2020, 08:34 AM
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#253
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Results Week3 Valuecapper
Hello All,
Like I said before, for the sake of transparency, here are my results for the last week of Valuecapping. Had a very good day yesterday and turned a nice $480 profit for the week
week060520_061120.JPG
Here are my results since I have been posting to this thread on 05/24/20, as you can see, the program has almost paid for itself in three weeks, of course it has done this many times over since I began using it in Sept 2018. Please note my win% of 14% is higher than I would expect based on past results of about 9%, which either means Im getting better or a big losing streak is overdue!! I vote for the latter! Still waiting to post a losing week...……..believe me they are coming!! 
Sincebeginning 052420_061120.JPG
Not much from a Vcp standpoint at first glance but I will post two or three races of interest later this AM.
Best,
M
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06-12-2020, 09:33 AM
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#254
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Veteran
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: NEW YORK CITY
Posts: 3,670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhaney0423
Hello All,
Like I said before, for the sake of transparency, here are my results for the last week of Valuecapping. Had a very good day yesterday and turned a nice $480 profit for the week
Attachment 27613
Here are my results since I have been posting to this thread on 05/24/20, as you can see, the program has almost paid for itself in three weeks, of course it has done this many times over since I began using it in Sept 2018. Please note my win% of 14% is higher than I would expect based on past results of about 9%, which either means Im getting better or a big losing streak is overdue!! I vote for the latter! Still waiting to post a losing week...……..believe me they are coming!!
Attachment 27614
Not much from a Vcp standpoint at first glance but I will post two or three races of interest later this AM.
Best,
M |
Thxs Matt...
You should ask MP is he got any new sales in the last 3 weeks....
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06-12-2020, 09:44 AM
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#255
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Durham, NC
Posts: 688
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
Thxs Matt...
You should ask MP is he got any new sales in the last 3 weeks.... |
Lol, I try not to bother the man!! Please remember though, I am not trying to get people to buy this software.....Ive said before and I'll say again, it costs a lot of money and even more costly <at least for me, is the time and commitment it takes to become proficient with it. I am simply trying to show what can be done with this software if you put in the time, $, and effort. I am sure there are people on here who have much better results with another software or maybe even just the good old fashioned form.
It was really difficult for me though, to come in here and read the bashing Michael Pizzolla was taking because of the price he charges for this software. The guy has created a great program, but what really makes it standout is the wealth of knowledge that he shares in his 100s of training videos. The guy is also very quick to answer emails and any questions one may have, usually within hours. He also is one of the few guys that will be honest with you regarding whether the software is for you, I remember inquiring about Black Magic in early 2017 and Michael told me to save my money and wait because VCP was coming out soon.....how many guys are gonna do that? Most would just let you buy the BM for like $1400 and then hit you for another $1200 for the VCP upgrade a year later. There is not many guys like MP in the business, although Ken Massa at HTR is also great.
m
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