"Fed Up With the CAWs..."

[Gorrex]

The only "secret sauce" is how to calculate an accurate fair value line AND a projected final odds. While in the end that boils down to objective math too, there are simply so many possible variables its extremely difficult. (Down to health and emotions even)




Once you have those it is 100% objective math how much to bet and on what.

[classhandicapper]

What software are you using to both scrape the odds and create a file of bets to send in?

[sjk]

There is a copy data button that puts the odds and exacta matrix on your clipboard. Then you paste it to a spreadsheet where it knows how to parse the format.

I use an Access program to determine my required prices. That is a very complicated calculation but there is no issue with refreshing it while the horses load to get a fresh list of potential plays (which these days is mostly an empty list due to short fields, tough competitors and still looking for 2x overlays).

[Gorrex]

I've known a few guys that do it entirely in excel and that just became much easier since MS officially supports python in excel now.

https://techcommunity.microsoft.com/...e/ba-p/3893439

[Jake]

Originally Posted by Gorrex

I've known a few guys that do it entirely in excel and that just became much easier since MS officially supports python in excel now.

https://techcommunity.microsoft.com/...e/ba-p/3893439

Recommended approach. Check out this as well: Effective Pandas: Patterns for Data Manipulation by Matt Harrison. Can be used with databases of choice as well.

[classhandicapper]

Thanks guys. I’ve done some scraping using Excel in the past. I should be able to figure it out. Right now all my data is in an Access database, but I plan on using Excel to calculate probable final odds and a rough odds line that I can subjectively tweak.

[formula_2002]

could not let this go without notice. hor, race 4
the win probability on the #1 increased by 223% in the late flashes and ran out, giving a $1 return of $4.50 on the 1 min to post time favorite #2
not so unusual

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

could not let this go without notice. hor, race 4
the win probability on the #1 increased by 223% in the late flashes and ran out, giving a $1 return of $4.50 on the 1 min to post time favorite #2
not so unusual

Yeah but what if you liked the winner but didn’t bet him because price was too low. Doesn’t do you any good does it. That is what posting about earlier in this thread. That is a big part of what makes this product suck. You as a horse player don’t get to take advantage of situations you may want to take advantage of because the odds change after the race is off. So over the course of a year you bet a lot of horses you would not bet if you knew their final odds and you are not able to take advantage of many value situations (at least as you perceive it) because the value appears too late. Add in the fact that the non rebates bettor gets crushed and you basically have very unappealing gambling game.

[formula_2002]

belmont r9 09-14-2023

not as impressive as my previous display, but the late flashes put the #6 at 123% above its 1 minuet to post time win probability, which assisted in driving the # 7 down by 12%, giving me the largest win and exacta payouts of the day.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

belmont r9 09-14-2023

not as impressive as my previous display, but the late flashes put the #6 at 123% above its 1 minuet to post time win probability, which assisted in driving the # 7 down by 12%, giving me the largest win and exacta payouts of the day.

Everyone here is overjoyed by your ability to be one step ahead of the CAW...keep it up

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

belmont r9 09-14-2023

not as impressive as my previous display, but the late flashes put the #6 at 123% above its 1 minuet to post time win probability, which assisted in driving the # 7 down by 12%, giving me the largest win and exacta payouts of the day.

Pointing out individual races where the odds went up proves and means absolutely nothing. It's one race out of thousands.

You know, I'm going to add more to this because it kinda pissed me off. Things like Formula pointing out random races where the odds went up on the winner or Classhandicapper saying he can pick his spots and win are truly counterproductive and make me wonder if either of you have ever actually READ any of the things people have posted about how they bet.

The CAW strategy is NOT usually "I'm betting $10000 on the favorite to win". They're making many, often contradictory bets on anything their program finds value in, and they're doing it at post time. Because they're only losing a few percent (or winning) vs. the takeout (doing much better than the average player) they are sucking value from the pools every race. You can't outwit them IN THE LONG RUN for that very reason. It's not a matter of picking your spots. They're in every "spot" and pool at most major tracks. Pointing out that odds went up late one time just means nothing.

[formula_2002]

Do you get equally pissed off at post that support this wild concept with no substantial research ? .

[Robert Fischer]

When the CAWs are wrong, they actually help rival horseplayers by supporting the pool. 🦉

Unfortunately, it requires even more patience and selectivity. 🐢

It's an extra step/filter. Less frequent/total opportunities. ⌛️

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

When the CAWs are wrong, they actually help rival horseplayers by supporting the pool. 🦉

Unfortunately, it requires even more patience and selectivity. 🐢

It's an extra step/filter. Less frequent/total opportunities. ⌛️

How do you have selectivity when the whales bet AFTER your bets are in?

What are you selecting from?
The tote without their money and yours?

[formula_2002]

using my data.

here is another random race selection.
late money went onto several horses, with 200% increase on the #4.
late money was wrong on all. the #1 won, having gone down 28% in the win pool probability.

Yes, there are times when the late money is right on.

back in the day I was allowed to spend a few days in the Aqueduct parimutuel room.
they have all the data needed to make a fantastic study with trend lines going back pre-internet time.

Such a study could help a student getting his PhD.